Has Vavra played his way into a starting 2B job?

[Flash- bd]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He won’t get on base if he doesn’t show power. If he can show power, he can be a valuable guy.

Right now, he’s Chance Sisco.  He won’t last as a MLer without showing that power.

Bit of a weird comp. Ages don't match up but Chance's last substantial period in AAA before graduating to the Orioles he had an OBP of .340. Vavra .435. 

Different levels of on-base skills shown, between those two, honestly.  

[wildcard]

Frazier is playing more like the 2021 All Star than the 2022 bust.  Its good to see.  But he is on a one year contract and is probably traded in July.

Keep an eye on Westburg and Ortiz in AAA.   If they start hitting they could be promoted at some point.   They are probably both better than Vavra as a starting 2B.

Vavra is a good utility player that can stick because of his OBP.  He has doubles power.  Doesn't seem to mind moving around from corner OF to 2B/3B.  His options are also attractive so they can try out young players that are coming up.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Flash- bd said:

Bit of a weird comp. Ages don't match up but Chance's last substantial period in AAA before graduating to the Orioles he had an OBP of .340. Vavra .435. 

Different levels of on-base skills shown, between those two, honestly.  

Yes, Vavra showed more in the minors, I agree. But 40% of his MiL PA came at A ball in 2019 and he had a slugging of 489 that year and an OBP of 409.

Now, he was able to maintain the on base numbers but he never came close to the slugging.

Sisco has a career 380 OBP in the minors but the slugging was only in the 420s. Again, Vavra was better but it’s still a comp in that they are both high OBP, lower slugging players.

You would expect Vavra to be the better player, we agree but can he be good enough to sustain a roster spot? So far, Vavra has an OPS of about 10 points higher than Sisco put up but the slugging is actually worse than Sisco and the OBP is better.  
 

The real difference between the 2 is that Vavra has a BA that is almost 60 points higher. But even that difference in BA has only equated to an OBP of 16 points higher and again, the lower slugging.

For Vavra to be an effective player worth keeping around, I think he may have to get that slugging up in the 370ish range.  If he is going to slug in the 320s, he’s going to get challenged more and more and he won’t be an effective ML player.

Now, I hope he gets the chance to show if he can do it. I’m all for it but he has a tough road ahead of him imo.

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, owknows said:

Tony Gwynn quietly chuckles.

Arraez is doing OK. 

[emmett16]

19 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Frazier represents $8 million in sunk costs, so he's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Especially if he gets on base 35% of the time and puts up an OPS+ of >= 110+ while playing great D.  Imagine he won’t be going anywhere anytime soon, either.  

Edited April 15, 2023 by emmett16

[emmett16]

17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, Vavra showed more in the minors, I agree. But 40% of his MiL PA came at A ball in 2019 and he had a slugging of 489 that year and an OBP of 409.

Now, he was able to maintain the on base numbers but he never came close to the slugging.

Sisco has a career 380 OBP in the minors but the slugging was only in the 420s. Again, Vavra was better but it’s still a comp in that they are both high OBP, lower slugging players.

You would expect Vavra to be the better player, we agree but can he be good enough to sustain a roster spot? So far, Vavra has an OPS of about 10 points higher than Sisco put up but the slugging is actually worse than Sisco and the OBP is better.  
 

The real difference between the 2 is that Vavra has a BA that is almost 60 points higher. But even that difference in BA has only equated to an OBP of 16 points higher and again, the lower slugging.

For Vavra to be an effective player worth keeping around, I think he may have to get that slugging up in the 370ish range.  If he is going to slug in the 320s, he’s going to get challenged more and more and he won’t be an effective ML player.

Now, I hope he gets the chance to show if he can do it. I’m all for it but he has a tough road ahead of him imo.

The #s are similar as you pointed out, but the two swings could not be more different.  Sisco was a front foot hitter with a slow, long, loopy swing.  Vavra hits off  his backside and is short & quick.  Sisco got eaten alive by good pitching.  I don’t see Vavra getting completely overmatched. 

Edited April 15, 2023 by emmett16

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, EdwinRip said:

In 114 ABs, he has a .071 ISO.  I’m not saying that is a ton of ABs, but he has not shown any power so far. He will need to improve upon that with his sub par defense and lack of speed.

I agree with this his.  His ISO numbers were better in the minors, and in spring training.  So, I think he will do better if given more PA.  

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

The #s are similar as you pointed out, but the two swings could not be more different.  Sisco was a front foot hitter with a slow, long, loopy swing.  Vavra hits off  his backside and and is short & quick.  Sisco got eaten alive by good pitching.  I don’t see Vavra getting completely overmatched. 

But as of right now, the results are similar.

It’s a SSS overall, so we have to see. 

There are lots of reasons why Vavra should be the better hitter. But none of this changes that if he doesn’t show more power, he won’t be a viable MLer. That is what he has to do, which is why I’m bringing up Sisco. He had the same issue to overcome. He couldn’t do it.

Im not saying he Vavra can’t do it. I’m saying he hasn’t done it and if that doesn’t change, he’s out of baseball within a few years because he doesn’t wow you with any other tools. He has to hit and get on base.

Like I said, if he can be a 370ish slugging guy, that should be enough to keep his OBP over 330 and that will allow him to be a MLer. 
 

We all know he can walk, get the bat to the ball, have good at bats, etc…no one is debating that. But without more power, none of that will really matter.

Edited April 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, owknows said:

Tony Gwynn quietly chuckles.

Gwynn had a career slugging of 459 and was over 470 7 times.

He was also arguably the greatest pure hitter the game has ever seen and he had lots of respect.  Ichiro is similar.

So yea, that’s an awful comp.

[owknows]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Gwynn had a career slugging of 459 and was over 470 7 times.

He was also arguably the greatest pure hitter the game has ever seen and he had lots of respect.  Ichiro is similar.

So yea, that’s an awful comp.

I didn't call Tony Gwynn a comp.

I cited him as an example of a player that had a high OBP, but didn't hit for power.. and had a fruitful career.

Ichiro of course being another.

There have been many.

All of whom serve to indict your point that "He won’t last as a MLer without showing that power. "

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

But as of right now, the results are similar.

It’s a SSS overall, so we have to see. 

There are lots of reasons why Vavra should be the better hitter. But none of this changes that if he doesn’t show more power, he won’t be a viable MLer. That is what he has to do, which is why I’m bringing up Sisco. He had the same issue to overcome. He couldn’t do it.

Im not saying he Vavra can’t do it. I’m saying he hasn’t done it and if that doesn’t change, he’s out of baseball within a few years because he doesn’t wow you with any other tools. He has to hit and get on base.

Like I said, if he can be a 370ish slugging guy, that should be enough to keep his OBP over 330 and that will allow him to be a MLer. 
 

We all know he can walk, get the bat to the ball, have good at bats, etc…no one is debating that. But without more power, none of that will really matter.

Thats fair.  I just looked up their BABIP and to my surprise they were identical .360 & .361.  The one thing that Vavra has on Sisco and also helps him get on base is his speed.  Albeit small amount of opportunities he will leg out some singles & will GIDP less than a Sisco profile player.  Not saying, that makes all the difference in the world, but for an OBP guy and a low ISO guy, you need as many ways as possible to get on base.  
 

I think his ceiling is Ben Zobrist light.  .160 ISO / .350OBP / .750 OPS.  Covering Multiple positions.  But as you’ve mentioned, the power needs to increase.  I’m hopeful he can get there through his age 26-28y/o seasons. 

Edited April 14, 2023 by emmett16

[Sports Guy]

But they did show power.  At least Gwynn did.  Ichiro didn’t hit for a lot of power (although he could have) but he also had some the best bat to ball skills ever.

His OBP was BA driven. Vavra’s would be more BB driven but the walks won’t come if he shows you can challenge him without consequence.

Gwynn and Ichiro made you pay for mistakes.

Edited April 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Thats fair.  I just looked up their BABIP and to my surprise they were identical .360 & .361.  The one thing that Vavra has on Sisco and also helps him get on base is his speed.  Albeit small amount of opportunities he will leg out some singles & will GIDP less than a Sisco profile player.  Not saying, that makes all the difference in the world, but for an OBP guy and a low ISO guy, you need as many ways as possible to get on base.  
 

I think his ceiling is Ben Zobrist light.  .160 ISO / .350OBP / .750 OPS.  Covering Multiple positions.  But as you’ve mentioned, the power needs to increase.  I’m hopeful he can get there through his age 26-28y/o seasons. 

Vavra doesn’t have much speed. That’s not really a plus in his column and Sisco moved well, especially for a catcher.

[emmett16]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Vavra doesn’t have much speed. That’s not really a plus in his column and Sisco moved well, especially for a catcher.

27.1 v. 24.1 sprint speed age 25y/o seasons.  Yea - Vavra isn’t a burner.  League average.  Not slow and won’t hurt you.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

27.1 v. 24.1 sprint speed age 25y/o seasons.  Yea - Vavra isn’t a burner.  League average.  Not slow and won’t hurt you.  

Not hurting you but he’s not fast. He’s not getting leg hits all the time.

Bottom line, pointing out his speed as an asset or something that will really help him isn’t really accurate.