It’s mostly about the pitching (2023 version)

[Frobby]

Seems like we have a thread like this pretty much every year, which is why I labeled this “2023 version.”

Looking at the Fangraphs positional power rankings and various other projections and commentaries, it seems that a lot of outside observers are expecting our pitching to regress this year.   Fangraphs, for example, ranks our rotation 28th, and our bullpen 21st.  

So, I think as the pitching goes, so will go the Orioles.   Personally, I feel pretty optimistic about the rotation.  I expect some ERA increase from Kremer but still think he’ll be very solid.  I think Bradish will be closer to the post-injury version than the pre-injury version.  I’m expecting solid if unspectacular years from Gibson and Irvin.  Wells should be fine if healthy.  And then there’s GRod and Hall waiting in the wings, with Means hopefully available in the second half.  I feel more confident in this group than I did going into 2022.

I’m less sanguine about the bullpen.  They beat expectations by a lot last year, and their position in save rate (78%, tops in the AL) far outpaced their leaguewide rank in ERA (3.49, 7th in the AL).   So, they got a lot of breaks in 2022, and my guess is their bottom line results won’t be as good in 2023.   I’m confident in The Mountain but I think we’ll see some strain in the middle relief/set-up guys.   Having Tate and Givens out to start the year definitely doesn’t help.  

Anyway, I think we’ll need to beat the “expert” predictions by a substantial margin in order to be a playoff team.

 

[foxfield]

I agree.  We were more competitive last year because our pitching exceeded expectations.  This year I feel our rotation is improved but am concerned about the pen.  Hopefully depth will help.  But for this team to be a playoff team, it's going to have to pitch like one.

Last year for the most part it did...fingers crossed.  Let's go.

[Billy F-Face3]

I won't lie, I'm very concerned about not having Tate in the bullpen for a month or 2. Tate was our most reliable reliever. Hyde could always count on him to get the job done. I thought Givens could fill the gap, but now Givens is injured too.

Someone is going to have to seriously step up for the bullpen.

I'm also convinced that Tyler Wells has a limited number of innings he can be effective. We've seen what happened last year once he got beyond a certain threshold. (He got injured.) I think that after a couple months, we might see either Voth, Baumann, Hall, or Rodriguez take some starts in that rotation spot. Who it is, depends on how Rodriguez and Hall are doing in Norfolk. If one of them is dominating, that's who will get the call.

Edited March 30, 2023 by Billy F-Face3

[now]

On balance I think it's fair to expect the improved rotation and regressed bullpen will even out, so pitching overall for the team will remain about the same.

Meanwhile the hitting should definitely improve!

[deward]

10 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I won't lie, I'm very concerned about not having Tate in the bullpen for a month or 2. Tate was our most reliable reliever. Hyde could always count on him to get the job done. I thought Givens could fill the gap, but now Givens is injured too.

Someone is going to have to seriously step up for the bullpen.

I'm also convinced that Tyler Wells has a limited number of innings he can be effective. We've seen what happened last year once he got beyond a certain threshold. (He got injured.) I think that after a couple months, we might see either Voth, Baumann, Hall, or Rodriguez take some starts in that rotation spot. Who it is, depends on how Rodriguez and Hall are doing in Norfolk. If one of them is dominating, that's who will get the call.

We should all be very concerned if it takes two months for Rodriguez to get back to the big leagues. That would mean that he's struggling to dominate at AAA, which would mean that something isn't right with him.

I've said in other threads, I think we're going to find out that at least a couple out of the Bradish/Kremer/Voth/Baker/Perez group were pitching over their heads last year. On a big picture level, for a team that wants to be like Houston and Tampa, the starting pitching pipeline is distressingly thin. As much credit as Elias gets for building up the farm system, it seems fair to ding him a bit for the fact that, after four years, the only two starting prospects that might be ready to help the team are ones he inherited. 

[eddie83]

Means could play a big role. May have to.  

[interloper]

If we can tread water, we have some epic reinforcements:

Tate
Givens
Means
Grayson
Hall
Westburg
Cowser

[Can_of_corn]

Never thought I'd live to see the day that the word epic was used to describe Tate unironically.

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Never thought I'd live to see the day that the word epic was used to describe Tate unironically.

Funny, but hey he's come a long way! 0.9 WHIP, 1.3 WAR. Pretty solid late inning guy if he repeats. Big if. 

[Scalious]

49 minutes ago, deward said:

We should all be very concerned if it takes two months for Rodriguez to get back to the big leagues. That would mean that he's struggling to dominate at AAA, which would mean that something isn't right with him.

I've said in other threads, I think we're going to find out that at least a couple out of the Bradish/Kremer/Voth/Baker/Perez group were pitching over their heads last year. On a big picture level, for a team that wants to be like Houston and Tampa, the starting pitching pipeline is distressingly thin. As much credit as Elias gets for building up the farm system, it seems fair to ding him a bit for the fact that, after four years, the only two starting prospects that might be ready to help the team are ones he inherited. 

The Orioles don't spend any draft capital on pitchers. Carter Baulmer (Pick 133 with 1.5M signing Bonus) was the biggest one. MeLean was the first top 100 pick spent, but failed to sign.

Either they were so arrogant they they could develop starting pitching from scratch? (The Rays and Guardians will spend draft capital on pitchers and they have a proven system)

or the plan has always been solid young core of hitters and trading/fa signing for pitching.

[deward]

28 minutes ago, Scalious said:

The Orioles don't spend any draft capital on pitchers. Carter Baulmer (Pick 133 with 1.5M signing Bonus) was the biggest one. MeLean was the first top 100 pick spent, but failed to sign.

Either they were so arrogant they they could develop starting pitching from scratch? (The Rays and Guardians will spend draft capital on pitchers and they have a proven system)

or the plan has always been solid young core of hitters and trading/fa signing for pitching.

Acquiring pitching externally rather than through the draft might be the plan, but it's not happening yet. Tampa seems to be able to produce some new impact pitcher almost at will; Elias needs to be able to do the same if he intends to build a perennial contender on a shoestring budget.