Jorge Mateo 2023

[Sydnor]

Because this thread is about Jorge Mateo, I’m going to say that on April 16, 2023, he is the most electrifying player in all of MLB. I hope he keeps it up. Even with his struggles last year, he has always been fun.

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

If Mateo keeps the line .280 15 homers and 50 steals he will get a big pay day from someone, but will be 31 years of age when he hits free agency and I don’t see anyway you pay a guy that uses speed and defense as key tools.  If he play like that he will get a Dansby Swanson type contract.  Do you think this team will pay someone 6 years 150 million+ type deal?   I want to sign and extend guys that will be in prime of career not a guy that will get big contract for their mid 30s. We only have so many resources to use.   This team isn’t in same financial place we were 6-10 years ago.  Pete had more money and wanted to spend it to win before he passed since then John has taken over and seems to be more interested in making money.  Then you figure in the loss of finances of Angelose firm and I still have doubts we get anywhere past 120-150 million anytime soon.

I’m not advocating for resigning Mateo. I think you retain him until Holiday is ready. My response was to the poster who said that we should let him walk after this season because he will be enter his first year of Arb. That’s what I was responding to. We only need him for another season or season and a half. Until Holiday is ready. But until then, we don’t need both Westburg and Ortiz. But we do need better starting pitching. 

[Getz]

This stat is crazy 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Getz

[Billy F-Face3]

10 minutes ago, Getz said:

This stat is crazy 

 

 

 

 

 

Must be all that muscle he's added this year.

[Moose Milligan]

That is a really good sign. 
 

 

[connja]

I was able to pick up Mateo in my Yahoo rotisserie league.  He's currently the #2 rated player in all of baseball behind Acuna.

[Gurgi]

1 hour ago, connja said:

I was able to pick up Mateo in my Yahoo rotisserie league.  He's currently the #2 rated player in all of baseball behind Acuna.

Obviously we need to keep riding this pony till he gives out or proves he is a budding superstar.   Just imagine we got this guy on a roster crunch waiver claim.   

[sportsfan8703]

9 hours ago, Sydnor said:

Because this thread is about Jorge Mateo, I’m going to say that on April 16, 2023, he is the most electrifying player in all of MLB. I hope he keeps it up. Even with his struggles last year, he has always been fun.

He’s like a Yasiel Puig or Alfonso Soriano type. He’s definitely Mr. Excitement. 
 

He’s really improved how much he’s laid off the low and away breaking balls. 

[nvpacchi]

Mateo looks to be on the precipice of something huge.  The next few weeks will tell if it is an extended hot streak, or if there are legitimate adjustments he has made to become a better hitter.

Some rolling graphs starting from opening day last year:

Mateo's biggest issue has been swinging far too frequently, but he has cut down his aggressiveness, swinging less often, especially at pitches out of the zone.

First swing rate and chase rate

General swings are down, and that is largely attributed to him straight up not chasing.  He's at the lowest chase rate of his career, and he's even better than average at laying off balls now!  Even watching him in games, the patience is easy to spot.

Being more selective has also led to a much improved swinging strike rate

He's had pockets above average in the past, but he's been better than average for nearly all of 2023.

And he hasn't improved his swing metrics at the behest of power.  His hard hit rate has also never been higher (the barrel rate still hovers around league average - which is completely fine with one of the most athletic players in the league).

 

Now is this just a repeat of last August or legitimate changes?  A positively trending chase rate and swinging strike rate has me optimistic that he has made some legitimate changes that can stick, but we likely need another month or so of the season to definitively say if he's changed or not.  In the meantime, we can at least be positively optimistic that we have a SS that may be better than an 82 wRC+ option!

 

Edit: no graph for this one, but his zone contact is 90% versus 83% last year!

Edited April 17, 2023 by nvpacchi

[Frobby]

Obviously, I’m thrilled by Mateo’s hot start.  But I’m also aware that he had a two-month heater last season and then turned back into a pumpkin.  To wit:

June 25 - August 23: .889 OPS

August 24 - October 5: .483 OPS

It was like watching two completely different players.

Therefore, for me, Mateo’s season won’t be defined by how good he looks when he’s hot.   It will be defined by how often and for how long he goes cold.   If he manages to shorten the cold spells and be at least minimally productive when he’s cold (.483 is ridiculously bad), he’ll be extremely valuable even if he doesn’t stay this hot all the time (which, of course, he won’t).   

 

[interloper]

Zero expectations for him to continue to play this well. Just happy to witness it. Highest WAR on the team and tied for 2nd in baseball I believe.

[banks703]

It's been thrown around A LOT over the past 10 months or so.. Jorge doesn't need to hit .377 to be extremely valuable to this team. If he can hit .250 with an OBP of .300+ he would be a top 10 overall shortstop when factoring in his speed and defense. 

 

For reference; Corey Seager was 10th in OBP last year at .317. He offers power and an average BA. Homeruns are great but if Jorge can hit .250 with that .300+ OBP, he's the more valuable player. If Jorge can post league-average BA and OBP, his total base count will explode to absolute elite level.

Of the SS in the top 10 of total bases last year, only Bobby Witt and Bo Bichette didn't post a 4.1 or more WAR season. And I think that's because they are both abysmal defensively.  

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, banks703 said:

It's been thrown around A LOT over the past 10 months or so.. Jorge doesn't need to hit .377 to be extremely valuable to this team. If he can hit .250 with an OBP of .300+ he would be a top 10 overall shortstop when factoring in his speed and defense. 

Correct.  I would have taken that in a heartbeat before the season started (.221/.267 last year).   But now I am greedily hoping for more.   

[Too Tall]

Sometimes amazing things happen in this game. Fun to be a part of and hope it lasts. I can't help watching and rooting and pulling for Mateo every play - every game. 

[banks703]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Correct.  I would have taken that in a heartbeat before the season started (.221/.267 last year).   But now I am greedily hoping for more.   

Jorge's calling card as a prospect was his offensive skill set. As you mentioned somewhere, if he can limit those stretches where he is utterly unproductive, he's going to be a real difference maker for this team and he's still young enough to be part of this competitive window. 

 

I personally am not convinced that Holliday is the franchise shortstop but also realize that even if Jorge somehow manages to sustain some of this offense that we're seeing so far this year, that he's probably not the answer for the next ten years. If he's that .250+ hitter with the .300+ OBP and continues to play GG level defense at short, I personally see no reason to move him off of the position until someone makes you do so. 

 

Hays has been my favorite Oriole for the last few years but Jorge has really grown on me. It's hard to not root for a guy who was basically written off by NY, Oak and SD. I am hopeful that Jorge can maintain some of what we're seeing from him so far. I am not sure that there is much in between for him though. By that, I mean that if he's better than last year, I think he's going to be A LOT better than last year, like a .270/.330/.420 kinda better. 

 

If Jorge puts up a .750 OPS with his defense and speed, he's going to be one of the six or eight best SS in the game.