Coby Mayo 2023

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

He is still only hitting .230, though his strikeout rate isn’t bad. I would prefer he dominate prior to bringing him up especially with competent guys ahead of him.

Why does he need to Dominate?  This obsession by people that think guys have to dominate in the minors has got to stop. He is one of the youngest players in AAA, his OpS is approaching 850, he is crushing the ball And after starting slowly, he is making excellent adjustments and doing great things at the plate.

He puts in another 150-200 At bats next year and he is likely doing even better than he is doing now.

If he keeps this trajectory and ends the year with a 900+ OPS in AAA, he has every right to say I’m ready to be a ML from day 1 next year.

 

Edit: after today, the OPS is up to 879

Edited September 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[baltfan]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why does he need to Dominate?  This obsession by people that think guys have to dominate in the minors has got to stop. He is one of the youngest players in AAA, his OpS is approaching 850, he is crushing the ball And after starting slowly, he is making excellent adjustments and doing great things at the plate.

He puts in another 150-200 At bats next year and he is likely doing even better than he is doing now.

If he keeps this trajectory and ends the year with a 900+ OPS in AAA, he has every right to say I’m ready to be a ML from day 1 next year.

 

Edit: after today, the OPS is up to 879

Elias says he likes guys to dominate. I trust his view on this, but with a big guy like Mayo it probably is more important since he has more holes to exploit. 

[baltfan]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why does he need to Dominate?  This obsession by people that think guys have to dominate in the minors has got to stop. He is one of the youngest players in AAA, his OpS is approaching 850, he is crushing the ball And after starting slowly, he is making excellent adjustments and doing great things at the plate.

He puts in another 150-200 At bats next year and he is likely doing even better than he is doing now.

If he keeps this trajectory and ends the year with a 900+ OPS in AAA, he has every right to say I’m ready to be a ML from day 1 next year.

 

Edit: after today, the OPS is up to 879

I think the Orioles hitters over-benefit in the minors from their approach.  It makes them look like better hitters than they are and more ready than they are. We have seen it with Stowers and Cowser.  The guy that stayed down, Westburg,is the one that actually has had the most success.  I don’t count Adley and Gunnar as they are a cut above.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I think the Orioles hitters over-benefit in the minors from their approach.  It makes them look like better hitters than they are and more ready than they are. We have seen it with Stowers and Cowser.  The guy that stayed down, Westburg,is the one that actually has had the most success.  I don’t count Adley and Gunnar as they are a cut above.  

Westburg isn’t hitting and has barely hit for the most part.

Stowers and Cowser have never been given a real chance.

Show me a quote where Elias says he needs them to dominate. I have never heard that although that doesn’t mean he hasn’t said it.

[baltfan]

Westburg has hit compared to the other two. As for Elias, he has said as much in interviews and it is borne out by when they bring guys up. 

[PsychoBird68]

3 hours ago, baltfan said:

I think the Orioles hitters over-benefit in the minors from their approach.  It makes them look like better hitters than they are and more ready than they are. We have seen it with Stowers and Cowser.  The guy that stayed down, Westburg,is the one that actually has had the most success.  I don’t count Adley and Gunnar as they are a cut above.  

I'm confused !!! How does their approach make them look better than they are ????.....Maybe they are having trouble adjusting to the big strike zone in the majors since they have the automated strike zone in AAA.....If you have a good approach and the talent your going to be a good hitter period...

[ShoelesJoe]

2-3 tonight with 2 BBs, a double and a HR. 

[Tony-OH]

Mayo has become a beast in front of our eyes in the last three weeks (series). He's put up a .297/.453/.662/1.115 OPS over 95 PAs with 6 2B and 7 HRs. Oh, you want dominate, add in a 20 BB to 16 K ratio.

Yeah, that's pretty good. Elias may keep him in the minors next year long enough to gain that extra year of controllability, but you have to imagine it's going to be pretty hard to keep him in the minors too long next year if he keeps dominating next spring.

[baltfan]

8 hours ago, PsychoBird68 said:

I'm confused !!! How does their approach make them look better than they are ????.....Maybe they are having trouble adjusting to the big strike zone in the majors since they have the automated strike zone in AAA.....If you have a good approach and the talent your going to be a good hitter period...

Better command of the strike zone forces pitchers into unfavorable counts.  In the minors, a lot of pitchers are forced to throw fastballs or other pitches that are designed to just be strikes in an effort not to walk the batter.  Major league pitchers, on the other hand, have better command so they don't fall behind as often and when they do they are much less likely to throw a cookie.  So, what I am saying is that it is great that they are teaching a good approach in the minors, but it will work better there then it does in the majors.  Doesn't mean it doesn't work in the majors, just not as well.  So they get less cookies and less walks. 

Moreover, the Orioles learn in the minors to try to only swing at strikes you can do damage on.  In the minors, that is a lot more balls than in the majors.  It still can be a good strategy in the majors, but you have to adjust what you think is a pitch you can do damage on.  If you wait for the ball down the middle, you are going to strikeout a lot of the time.

You saw this with Gunnar when he first came up.  He was looking for only pitches he could do damage on.  As a result, he often found himself behind in the count.  Yes, he was walking a fair amount but he wasn't hitting and was striking out a ton.  He adjusted his approach to become more aggressive, which ended up turning his season around.  

 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Mayo has become a beast in front of our eyes in the last three weeks (series). He's put up a .297/.453/.662/1.115 OPS over 95 PAs with 6 2B and 7 HRs. Oh, you want dominate, add in a 20 BB to 16 K ratio.

Yeah, that's pretty good. Elias may keep him in the minors next year long enough to gain that extra year of controllability, but you have to imagine it's going to be pretty hard to keep him in the minors too long next year if he keeps dominating next spring.

The thing that will keep him in the minors is what is ahead of him in the majors.  Is he better than Ortiz (assuming Mateo is gone which I think is likely), so you keep Gunnar at short and play him at third?  Are Mounty and O'Hearn still on the club?  Even if Mounty is gone, do they have to find time for Cowser, Kjerstad, Santander, O'Hearn, and Hays between 3 spots?  Do they think his defense is sufficient to play third?

I love Mayo.  I think he is going to be an absolute stud.  But he is also a big dude, on a heater.  I am sure I can find similar three week periods for Stowers or even McKenna at AAA.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Could Mayo be an option to get called up this year once the AAA season ends? It won’t happen before then because he won’t get regular ABs here, but there is a spot in the lineup against LHP that is currently most regularly being filled by McCann. In a playoff game, I’d rather have Adley catching and Mayo DHing than McCann in the lineup. 

Right now, our lineup against LHP projects to have at least one of McCann, McKenna, or Hicks. I’d rather have Mayo instead:

vs LHP

Rutschman C

Mountcastle 1B

Santander RF

Hays LF

Henderson SS

Westburg 2B

Mayo DH

Mullins CF

Urias 3B

Bench: O’Hearn, McKenna/Hicks, Frazier, Mateo, McCann

[Rbiggs2525]

4 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Could Mayo be an option to get called up this year once the AAA season ends? It won’t happen before then because he won’t get regular ABs here, but there is a spot in the lineup against LHP that is currently most regularly being filled by McCann. In a playoff game, I’d rather have Adley catching and Mayo DHing than McCann in the lineup. 

Right now, our lineup against LHP projects to have at least one of McCann, McKenna, or Hicks. I’d rather have Mayo instead:

vs LHP

Rutschman C

Mountcastle 1B

Santander RF

Hays LF

Henderson SS

Westburg 2B

Mayo DH

Mullins CF

Urias 3B

Bench: O’Hearn, McKenna/Hicks, Frazier, Mateo, McCann

There are too many growing pains in the first month. Unfortunately we do not have that time to wait.

[Tony-OH]

46 minutes ago, baltfan said:

The thing that will keep him in the minors is what is ahead of him in the majors.  Is he better than Ortiz (assuming Mateo is gone which I think is likely), so you keep Gunnar at short and play him at third?  Are Mounty and O'Hearn still on the club?  Even if Mounty is gone, do they have to find time for Cowser, Kjerstad, Santander, O'Hearn, and Hays between 3 spots?  Do they think his defense is sufficient to play third?

I love Mayo.  I think he is going to be an absolute stud.  But he is also a big dude, on a heater.  I am sure I can find similar three week periods for Stowers or even McKenna at AAA.

Can you find one from a 21-year old in AAA this year? 

I mean, you can poo-poo his heater all you want, but it also could be that he's made the adjustments. He's not just sitting on fastballs but hitting all pitches hard. His strike out rate is down and his walk rate is up.

Everything points to him having made the adjustment to AAA pitching. Now am I claiming him major league ready? I guess that depends on your perspective. Now I'm sure the Orioles have information on how he hits major league quality stuff from AAA pitchers vs teeing off in well, AAA pitchers and that can be a better indicator. Without that data, I gotta go by the stats and what I've seen him do in games visually.

We both agree he's a stud, and I still think had he gone to college and developed like he did in the pros, he would have bene the 1-1 pick this year and people would be losing there stuff that a 1-1 pick was doing this kind of damage in AAA already (assuming he was moved up this quickly).

Personally, I think he's going to be similar to Kris Bryant but may be a year ahead of Bryant at the same time.

Oh, and the thing that may keep him in the minors a bit next year will be Elias not wanting him to come up on Free Agency so close to Gunnar and Westburg/Holliday to a lesser extent. 

If they can keep him down long enough to gain an extra year and keep him out of Super-2 status all while he gets another 200 AAA PAS, then I could see that as a way forward and would fit Elias' MO.

 

[Sports Guy]

I be this BABiP is unlucky too.

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Can you find one from a 21-year old in AAA this year? 

I mean, you can poo-poo his heater all you want, but it also could be that he's made the adjustments. He's not just sitting on fastballs but hitting all pitches hard. His strike out rate is down and his walk rate is up.

Everything points to him having made the adjustment to AAA pitching. Now am I claiming him major league ready? I guess that depends on your perspective. Now I'm sure the Orioles have information on how he hits major league quality stuff from AAA pitchers vs teeing off in well, AAA pitchers and that can be a better indicator. Without that data, I gotta go by the stats and what I've seen him do in games visually.

We both agree he's a stud, and I still think had he gone to college and developed like he did in the pros, he would have bene the 1-1 pick this year and people would be losing there stuff that a 1-1 pick was doing this kind of damage in AAA already (assuming he was moved up this quickly).

Personally, I think he's going to be similar to Kris Bryant but may be a year ahead of Bryant at the same time.

Oh, and the thing that may keep him in the minors a bit next year will be Elias not wanting him to come up on Free Agency so close to Gunnar and Westburg/Holliday to a lesser extent. 

If they can keep him down long enough to gain an extra year and keep him out of Super-2 status all while he gets another 200 AAA PAS, then I could see that as a way forward and would fit Elias' MO.

 

Mountcastle at barely age 22 who spent a full season at Norfolk?  Let's also talk about where he is going to play?  Do you have him in front of Ortiz?  If not, then he needs to play first.  If so, then doesn't he need more time in the minors to work on first base.  I completely agree he will be up at some point next year.  I would probably as a smart executive with good justification have him up after Super 2 passed.  But then he would have to be an improvement over what was up.  I could foresee a circumstance where Ortiz is playing well at SS, Gunnar is at 3B, and Westburg is playing really well.  At that point, Mayo has to play first and DH.  Will he be better than a platoon of Mounty/O'Hearn?  Of course all of this is dependent on what happens over the offseason.  

So, if this were 2021, he would be up for me at the first of next year.  2024, not so much.