HoF 2008 Who's in/out?

[geschinger]

I think that McGwire's votes will rise, perhaps significantly, but I don't believe he will reach 75% for several years, if ever. There is probably a hard core of writers who will never vote for him unless something comes out which proves McGwire didn't use steroids. Right now, most writers and baseball fans assume that he did, even though there's no evidence of it aside from his hemming and hawing during his congressional testimony.

It will be very interesting to see how things play out. If he doesn't get in over the next few years it'll setup a very interesting situation when it's time for Bonds to be considered.

[Mackus]

I think that McGwire's votes will rise, perhaps significantly, but I don't believe he will reach 75% for several years, if ever. There is probably a hard core of writers who will never vote for him unless something comes out which proves McGwire didn't use steroids. Right now, most writers and baseball fans assume that he did, even though there's no evidence of it aside from his hemming and hawing during his congressional testimony.

He cleearly used steroids, I don't think theres any unbiased person who would disagree with that.

That said, he should defintiely be in the HoF. He didn't have any advantage that every other player in the league had.

[Ruzious]

It's really going to be a controversial vote - due to McGwire. I'd lean toward not voting him in, but I might change my mind.

Blyleven - way overdue to be in.

Concepcion - I wouldn't put him in, but I rate him being a lot closer than others would rate him. He was a GREAT defensive SS.

Dawson - Yes - a great all-around CFer in his prime and a dominant player. I give him an edge over Murphy - even though I was (and am) a Braves fan.

Gossage - No. I just remember him getting hit by Terry Crowley a bunch of times in key situations late in his career.

Don Mattingly - I could go either way. He didn't last very long, but he was better than his stats, a great defensive 1Bman, and a rare leader.

Jack Morris - I say yes, because he was dominant, and he was a great post-season pitcher.

Dale Murphy - real close but not quite. He did have a couple of MVP years, but he had too many years that were only okay.

Dave Parker - close but no. His intangibles were poor.

Jim Rice - No. I know a lot of people say he was maybe the dominant power hitter of his time, but I think he was only the 3rd best OFer on his team. If Dewey Evans and Fred Lynn (both far superior defensively) don't get any consideration, neither should Rice.

[Baltimoron]

Wasn't Dawson hurt early in his career?

His steal totals took a significant drop after 1983 and I remember someone talking about his legs being bummed out real early in his career.

I do think I just want him in for sentimental reason as well but only time can tell.

He was a center fielder for his first 7 big league seasons, but the artificial turf in Montreal took its toll on his knees. From 1984 on (9 more full seasons followed by 3 partial seasons at the end) he was pretty much a right fielder.

But not for the bad knees leading to the position switch, he would have a much better case for the Hall of Fame. The necessitated position change was probably worth @ 8-10 more WARP. Clay sets the replacement level for CFs as -24 and RF as -14 for the FRAR component of WARP (link), and we know @ every 10 runs over replacement = 1 win.

A cool hawk tale:

He played for the Expos until after the 1986 season, when he took a pay cut to sign with the Chicago Cubs. Dawson's knee injuries were aggravated by playing on artificial turf in Montreal, and he hoped playing home games on grass at Wrigley Field would prolong his career.Dawson had campaigned for the Cubs to sign him during the offseason, but general manager Dallas Green resisted, insisting that the Cubs would start Brian Dayett in right field (Dawson had moved from center field to right field in his final two seasons as an Expo, due to the condition of his knees), and that one player could not make a 71-91 team a 91-71 team . When the Cubs opened camp in Mesa, Arizona that spring, Dawson and his agent Dick Moss arrived in an attempt to secure a contract with the Cubs. Dawson and Moss' stunt was derided as a "dog and pony show" by Green, who still wouldn't make an offer to Dawson. Two weeks into spring training, Dawson turned the tables on Green and the Cubs, presenting Green with a blank contract. Green filled in the contract with lean figures: a $500,000 base salary with $250,000 in incentives if Dawson made the All-Star team, started the All-Star Game, and won the National League MVP award.

He did all three, enjoying one of his finest seasons in 1987 in terms of raw statistics.

link

[Bosibus]

A great deal for 700,000, I saw that earlier.

[TGO]

A great deal for 700,000, I saw that earlier.

Keep in mind that top of the line vets were making 1-2 million that season and I think the minimum was around 60k, so it's not like he was making 700k in today's environment. He was still cheap for his production, sure, but not ridiculously so.

[Moose Milligan]

There is one man that escapes this conversation, one man who Moose Milligan will always feel deserves a spot in Cooperstown...one man...

...and that man is....

<img src="http://www.apeculture.com/images/williemcgee.jpg">

[Bosibus]

Keep in mind that top of the line vets were making 1-2 million that season and I think the minimum was around 60k, so it's not like he was making 700k in today's environment. He was still cheap for his production, sure, but not ridiculously so.

Yup, that is true. I was referring to the years before he was making almost 1/3 more without the MVP production. What is crazy is looking over his career, inflation in baseball salaries was booming just as it now, in terms of percentage per year.

1985 Montreal Expos $1,033,333

1986 Montreal Expos $1,047,000

1987 Chicago Cubs $700,000

1988 Chicago Cubs $1,850,000

1989 Chicago Cubs $2,100,000

1990 Chicago Cubs $2,100,000

1991 Chicago Cubs $3,325,000

1992 Chicago Cubs $3,300,000

1993 Boston Red Sox $4,875,000

1994 Boston Red Sox $4,425,000

1995 Florida Marlins $500,000

1996 Florida Marlins $500,000

[Bosibus]

There is one man that escapes this conversation, one man who Moose Milligan will always feel deserves a spot in Cooperstown...one man...

...and that man is....

Maybe if he only played one season.

[Frobby]

Raines is clearly the class of the first-time eligibles. He's a great test case for the sabermetric crowd. I'm guessing that he won't get in on the first ballot, though. Next year is a great time for one or two guys who have been lurking for a while finally getting the nod.

[Sports Guy]

Raines is clearly the class of the first-time eligibles. He's a great test case for the sabermetric crowd. I'm guessing that he won't get in on the first ballot, though. Next year is a great time for one or two guys who have been lurking for a while finally getting the nod.

I will be surprised if Raines gets 60% of the vote...What about you?

[mweb]

I will be surprised if Raines gets 60% of the vote...What about you?

I agree. Lets not forget that he had some issues with cocaine, so that probably won't help either, although it didn't seem to harm Molitor in the vote. I say he gets about 20%.