Pick 6

[Filmstudy]

Pick the 6 Orioles whose 2023 performance will have the most impact on the team making the postseason and give your reasoning if you like.

I'll start and add that I'm doing this primarily by variance of performance I see as likely:

1. Mateo--There is plenty of discussion on the board about how valuable Mateo would be with an OBP of .725 or .750 and his variance has to be the most of any player given his play to date

2. Henderson--There will (and have been) growing pains in year 2, both offensively and defensively.  We've also seen evidence of a disciplined plate approach that can only help him as a hitter.

3 Rutschman--He's already one of the best players in the league, but we don't know his ceiling yet nor if regression to something below last season is possible.

4. Rodriguez--Better early command and he could be the ToR starter we've all been hoping for, but I can't rule out the possibility he has more time in AAA this season

5. Bautista--High leverage appearances from a high-variance athlete

6. Wells--I'm buying into the hope of a big upside, but it's not a sure thing by any means

The Orioles have a deep and talented supporting cast including Gibson, Mullins, Hays, Urias, Mountcastle, Santander, Kremer, Bradish, and pick your relievers (or let Hyde/Elias sift through them to find the hot hands), but I feel those players in aggregate with the remainder of the roster might get the team to within a few games of .500 (maybe .490 to .500) if the above 6 were all .500 WAA players.  I'll figure 92 wins to make the playoffs through the back door, which is .568.  That would mean the big 6 would have to average a WAA of approximately .513 per 162 for the Orioles to make the postseason.

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Filmstudy

[Aristotelian]

So like who has biggest discrepancy between their upside ceiling and their floor? Gunnar, Mouncastle, Mateo, Grayson, Means, Bradish. Any of those guys could put up negative WAR to the downside up to 3-5 WAR on the upside.

[DirtyBird]

Cowser

[Mooreisbetter27]

All I will say… is that if Mateo has a .725-.750 OBP, he better win the MVP. 

[RZNJ]

Filmstudy.  I like your list.  Especially the top 5.   I think I’d go Bradish in the 6th spot because I think he has the highest upside outside of Rodriguez.

[Sanfran327]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Filmstudy.  I like your list.  Especially the top 5.   I think I’d go Bradish in the 6th spot because I think he has the highest upside outside of Rodriguez.

Bradish and Wells are a coinflip for me, but I really like them both.

Conversely, if I were to make a bottom X list, it would include Akin, Voth, and McKenna. I had a longer post drafted up, but it led me to so many other ideas, that I need to flesh it out more and maybe start another thread about it. 

Basically, it's pretty wild to me that an active roster this talented has so few long-term locks on it (as of today) and so many good players that are still in the "upgradeable" category because of the wealth of talent we have in the mid and upper minors. For a roster that I think has 20+ pretty good players, I'd guess there are less than 10 players on the active roster that will be here 3+ years from now. Lots of hard decisions coming up.