Jud Fabian 2023

[waroriole]

10 hours ago, emmett16 said:

You can’t teach power. 

Can you teach contact? Cause someone’s gonna need to teach this kid a lot if he has any chance of playing in MLB. K rate at 36% in Bowie now. 

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, emmett16 said:

You can’t teach power. 

Do you have a source/study on this?  

I assume you're saying that there's some sort of biological floor/ceiling that is essentially innate (skeletal, muscular, nervous, mental...).  But at the same time, those things can be improved with training too.  It's a bit different than height, eye color, sex, etc.  The old nature/nurture conundrum...

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Can you teach contact? Cause someone’s gonna need to teach this kid a lot if he has any chance of playing in MLB. K rate at 36% in Bowie now. 

Good point but I think I’d take this skill set and hope better swing decisions can lead to decreased strikeouts and more contact.   He takes walks which is important.   Not sure where all the swing and miss is but he does need to address that for sure if he wants to succeed.    I’m pretty happy with his first full season.   Less of a project than he looked when he was drafted.   

[turtlebowl]

50 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Do you have a source/study on this?  

I assume you're saying that there's some sort of biological floor/ceiling that is essentially innate (skeletal, muscular, nervous, mental...).  But at the same time, those things can be improved with training too.  It's a bit different than height, eye color, sex, etc.  The old nature/nurture conundrum...

Some players regardless of size just have the ability to create bat speed.  I'm not an expert on this but I always related it to certain quick twitch muscles that are used in the swing.  Sure you can teach loads, add muscle and do other things to make any player reach their max power potential but natural bat speed can't really be taught.

I think when you look at O's drafts they really look at that.  They know they can clean up mechanics for hitters and make their swings more efficient.  You do that with someone that has god given talent to hit the ball harder than others and then you have something.  That to me is what you are seeing with this organization and why players just seem to take off in this system.  They are teaching guys how to hit that can naturally hit the ball really hard when they barrel it up.

[btdart20]

31 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

I'm not an expert on this but I always related it to certain quick twitch muscles that are used in the swing.  Sure you can teach loads, add muscle and do other things to make any player reach their max power potential but natural bat speed can't really be taught.

Correct, that's what I'm leaning into.  Those can be quick twitch muscles trained too though (at least to some degree) with things like overloading/underloading bats for hitters and plyo balls for throwing.  Tons of agility, speed, weight training variations.  The nuero-muscle memory can be trained to some extent too (split second pitch recognition type stuff).  But what's the limitation?  Is the science for a successful MLB career/maximizing player potential behind the "nature" or the "nurture" side of the equation?

What I really want to know is "did my mom lie to me when she said I could be anything I wanted to be if I put my mind to it and worked hard to get it?  Or was I a hopeless baseball case to begin with and should have focused on swimming instead?"

[emmett16]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

There’s exceptions to everything.  I think they taught Cowser and Norby and even Ortiz power but it certainly makes it easier if it’s already there.

 

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Correct, that's what I'm leaning into.  Those can be quick twitch muscles trained too though (at least to some degree) with things like overloading/underloading bats for hitters and plyo balls for throwing.  Tons of agility, speed, weight training variations.  The nuero-muscle memory can be trained to some extent too (split second pitch recognition type stuff).  But what's the limitation?  Is the science for a successful MLB career/maximizing player potential behind the "nature" or the "nurture" side of the equation?

What I really want to know is "did my mom lie to me when she said I could be anything I wanted to be if I put my mind to it and worked hard to get it?  Or was I a hopeless baseball case to begin with and should have focused on swimming instead?"

Each human has a power ceiling/floor.  It’s the combo of their strength, leverage, efficiency in movement, ability to stretch, torque, twist, turn, etc. Some folks are blessed with easy power.  Others have to make a very concerted effort and still likely won’t match others. The saying “can’t teach power” is a nod to guys who have the easy power and don’t need to spend as much time on that deficiency as another player would.  It takes less time to get to the finished product if they can spend bulk of training time on pitch recognition and contact ability.  

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

 

Each human has a power ceiling/floor.  It’s the combo of their strength, leverage, efficiency in movement, ability to stretch, torque, twist, turn, etc. Some folks are blessed with easy power.  Others have to make a very concerted effort and still likely won’t match others. The saying “can’t teach power” is a nod to guys who have the easy power and don’t need to spend as much time on that deficiency as another player would.  It takes less time to get to the finished product if they can spend bulk of training time on pitch recognition and contact ability.  

Are you calling my mom a liar?! 

[emmett16]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Correct, that's what I'm leaning into.  Those can be quick twitch muscles trained too though (at least to some degree) with things like overloading/underloading bats for hitters and plyo balls for throwing.  Tons of agility, speed, weight training variations.  The nuero-muscle memory can be trained to some extent too (split second pitch recognition type stuff).  But what's the limitation?  Is the science for a successful MLB career/maximizing player potential behind the "nature" or the "nurture" side of the equation?

What I really want to know is "did my mom lie to me when she said I could be anything I wanted to be if I put my mind to it and worked hard to get it?  Or was I a hopeless baseball case to begin with and should have focused on swimming instead?"

Some people have longer levers (arms/legs), some people can sequence their body’s better, some can rotate in their hips more,  some are more flexible, some are more pliable.  All bodies are different and work different.  
 

Some folks are also just not using their bodies efficiently.  This is where the Motor Preferences come in.  Are you an aerial mover or are you a terrestrial mover?  Unless you understand how your body operates in the most efficient manner you could be working against what works best for you.  Some players find their efficiencies naturally others struggle to find and work against them.  
 

Now that I think about it - this is all new stuff and maybe it can buck the “you can’t teach power” adage….

[turtlebowl]

48 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Some people have longer levers (arms/legs), some people can sequence their body’s better, some can rotate in their hips more,  some are more flexible, some are more pliable.  All bodies are different and work different.  
 

Some folks are also just not using their bodies efficiently.  This is where the Motor Preferences come in.  Are you an aerial mover or are you a terrestrial mover?  Unless you understand how your body operates in the most efficient manner you could be working against what works best for you.  Some players find their efficiencies naturally others struggle to find and work against them.  
 

Now that I think about it - this is all new stuff and maybe it can buck the “you can’t teach power” adage….

I think you can teach it to a certain extent but those that have the natural ability to create bat speed don't need to possibly sacrifice other things to create power.  

I know everyone has their thoughts on Raffy P, but even in college he had the ability to drive the ball even though he wasn't big and had what appeared to be an effortless swing.  You can't teach that.  Was his power enhanced, probably.  There are many examples of guys like that and to me they tend to have the best combination of not only being able to hit for power, but also be a good average/contact hitter.  

Again this is what the O's seem to be good at.  Take these guys that have natural easy above average exit speeds and then really implement their hitting philosophies to make them above average in both power and average/ob skills. 

[Tony-OH]

Fabian needs to make some adjustments because the K's have been really bad of late. He's 2-for his last-22 with his only two hits being HRs, but he's struck out 11 times with just two walks. He' struck out at least once in 21 of his 22 AA games. 

I'm going to go back and see what they are mostly getting him on, but it has not been a good adjustment to AA pitching so far for him.

 

 

[Alasdaire]

.196 BABIP at AA, which would put him in the top-10 minor league players at any level that Fangraphs tracks, so there's almost certainly some bad luck there. And there's no question about the power with a 5.9% HR% and .260 ISO. Still stealing bases and playing a good center.

The issue at AA so far is obviously the low walks/high Ks. But is it realistic that AA pitchers have a book on him within his first 100 PAs to the point that they're targeting his specific weaknesses and he can't handle it? Maybe, but seems more likely to me that whatever adjustments the hitting coaches made that we were praising earlier this year worked really well in the low minors, but it might not be cutting it when you get to AA and start seeing guys who aren't one-trick ponies.

[Three Run Homer]

Excellent power, strong CF defense, speed, lots of strikeouts...maybe he was switched at birth with Daz Cameron?  

[Gatoriole]

51 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

.196 BABIP at AA, which would put him in the top-10 minor league players at any level that Fangraphs tracks, so there's almost certainly some bad luck there. And there's no question about the power with a 5.9% HR% and .260 ISO. Still stealing bases and playing a good center.

The issue at AA so far is obviously the low walks/high Ks. But is it realistic that AA pitchers have a book on him within his first 100 PAs to the point that they're targeting his specific weaknesses and he can't handle it? Maybe, but seems more likely to me that whatever adjustments the hitting coaches made that we were praising earlier this year worked really well in the low minors, but it might not be cutting it when you get to AA and start seeing guys who aren't one-trick ponies.

He has walked 12 times in 102 plate appearances. I wouldn't consider that "low walks." 

It's really just the strikeouts (so far). 

[Brooks The Great]

17 hours ago, Gatoriole said:

He has walked 12 times in 102 plate appearances. I wouldn't consider that "low walks." 

It's really just the strikeouts (so far). 

That's something I'm confident the O's development will help Fabian with, even if it's not this season. Overall I think it's been a great year for Fabian, even if he finishes the season struggling at AA. The A to AA jump is one of the toughest in pro baseball, if not the toughest minor league adjustment.

[ChosenOne21]

I don't think anyone thought Fabian would be fast to the majors. The big knock against him on (both) draft day(s) was that there were major holes in his swing that led to serious hit tool questions. Now, the Orioles are pretty good at fixing this sort of thing, but overhauling a swing is a slow process. Maybe he'll make it and maybe he won't, but I think we've been spoiled by the number of prospects we have that have just flown through the minors.

Fabian might need a whole year at AA. It's not the end of him as a prospect if he does. Let's not forget he climbed to AA in a year after being drafted (granted he was a senior sign).