Jud Fabian 2023

[Jammer7]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The one pitch was the four seam fastball.

It's not like he had issues with sliders.

I'm sure that fact that he turned down 2 million from Boston the year before was a factor, as was the simple fact he was a year older.

He was a year older, sure. It didn’t matter because he enrolled early at UF. When we drafted him last year, he was 21 and turned 22 in late September. Age wasn’t a factor. He skipped his senior season of HS baseball in 2019 to play CF for the Gators. Thanks to COVID, he could have stayed at UF for this season as well. 

The thing some did not like was supposed to be the strikeouts and approach. He was just trying to do what his coaches asked and he was more aggressive than he wanted to be to try to drive in runs. Some teams did not like that he was rumored to want to go to certain teams, like Baltimore, and feared he would not sign again. 

There was much more behind the scenes and to the Boston decision. He wanted to be in a system/situation he felt he could prosper, and Baltimore is such a place. Boston was not. He had leverage and Boston treated him like crap, gave him a true old school “take it or leave it” offer from the beginning after not really talking with him at all before the draft. No real dialogue. So, he went back and played with his brother at UF.

We’re lucky to have him. Hopefully, he continues to develop and progress. 

[RZNJ]

Fabian hit .229 and .239 two years in a row in college.  Forget all of the other theories.   That puts doubt into any potential pro team, including the Orioles.   That’s why he lasted until 67.  Remember also that Beavers and Wagner are almost a full year younger.

[wildcard]

Fabian has over 200 PAs and a 918 OPS.  Time to promote him to AA.

[Can_of_corn]

47 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

He was a year older, sure. It didn’t matter because he enrolled early at UF. When we drafted him last year, he was 21 and turned 22 in late September. Age wasn’t a factor. He skipped his senior season of HS baseball in 2019 to play CF for the Gators. Thanks to COVID, he could have stayed at UF for this season as well. 

The thing some did not like was supposed to be the strikeouts and approach. He was just trying to do what his coaches asked and he was more aggressive than he wanted to be to try to drive in runs. Some teams did not like that he was rumored to want to go to certain teams, like Baltimore, and feared he would not sign again. 

There was much more behind the scenes and to the Boston decision. He wanted to be in a system/situation he felt he could prosper, and Baltimore is such a place. Boston was not. He had leverage and Boston treated him like crap, gave him a true old school “take it or leave it” offer from the beginning after not really talking with him at all before the draft. No real dialogue. So, he went back and played with his brother at UF.

We’re lucky to have him. Hopefully, he continues to develop and progress. 

I just want to say, age is always a factor in the draft.

It's always going to be considered. 

[seak05]

Hope he's moving his stuff to Bowie tomorrow

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Fabian has over 200 PAs and a 918 OPS.  Time to promote him to AA.

And, Kjerstad’s departure leaves a big opening.  I don’t know if Fabian will be promoted immediately, but it certainly could be very soon.  Huge day today, 4 for 5 with a homer and 5 RBI.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

He wanted to be in a system/situation he felt he could prosper, and Baltimore is such a place.

I hope this is true and word is in every ranked HS and college in the US!

On a more selfish note:  I hope Fabian and Jackson are still in Aberdeen this Friday so I can see them!

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Alasdaire said:

Sure. But it's not like the 66 guys taken in front of him were without flaws themselves, and they don't have the floor/ceiling that Fabian has. Just doesn't compute for me that other teams could look at him and say yeah we have him 90th. Maybe he was just off boards altogether if that's such a fatal flaw.

Again just guessing but to me felt like the O's valued Jud enough to take him where either Beavers or Wagner were taken (which was around where they wanted him in 2021) but knew they didn't have to. However they knew that, it's great drafting and bodes well going forward.

There are a ton of guys with great tools that fall in the draft. Tools don’t make you a good player. They give you a foundation to be able to be good but there is more to it than that.

[Sports Guy]

Fabian was one of the top guys I wanted to watch entering this season. Things started off slow for him but he is tearing it up now.

The defense always gets glowing remarks.

If the offense is there to match, you have a potential 4-6 WAR CFer making no money.

Fabian, Cowser and Kjerstad/Mayo (one at first, one in RF) is a potential very high ceiling OF.

 

[Alasdaire]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a ton of guys with great tools that fall in the draft. Tools don’t make you a good player. They give you a foundation to be able to be good but there is more to it than that.

My earlier post linked to a couple of sources that rated Jud extremely favorably based on some advanced statistics, namely his elite swing decisions. And he had a ~1.000 OPS across his two most recent years in the SEC. He had tools, analytics, pedigree, and production. Not a run of the mill *tools guy.
 

I’ve always been glad we got him, just quite surprised it happened the way it did.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Alasdaire
Edit: *tools

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Fabian hit .229 and .239 two years in a row in college.  Forget all of the other theories.   That puts doubt into any potential pro team, including the Orioles.   That’s why he lasted until 67.  Remember also that Beavers and Wagner are almost a full year younger.

That is true as well. He did not really improve like they hoped when he returned. And there were things some pointed to on data and video, like swing decisions and the amount of swing and miss in the zone. That, along with some mechanical adjustments, the Orioles believed in him and felt confident he could be much better in their system. That was what I was told anyway. 

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

That is true as well. He did not really improve like they hoped when he returned. And there were things some pointed to on data and video, like swing decisions and the amount of swing and miss in the zone. That, along with some mechanical adjustments, the Orioles believed in him and felt confident he could be much better in their system. That was what I was told anyway. 

Well that seems obviously correct now.

I mean, the complete 180 has done with this organization vs what we saw in Florida is astounding. 

Whether the tools were there or not is irrelevant to me. The turnaround of Fabian by this staff deserves high marks.

And btw, that turnaround was almost immediate. It’s not like it took a long time to fix things with him and after a few years, we are seeing it pay dividends. He improved immediately. Great stuff.

[Otter]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well that seems obviously correct now.

I mean, the complete 180 has done with this organization vs what we saw in Florida is astounding. 

Whether the tools were there or not is irrelevant to me. The turnaround of Fabian by this staff deserves high marks.

And btw, that turnaround was almost immediate. It’s not like it took a long time to fix things with him and after a few years, we are seeing it pay dividends. He improved immediately. Great stuff.

Agreed.  Have to give a lot of credit to our player development and minor league hitting coaches.  They've done an outstanding job developing a number of hitting prospects.  On the other hand, the pitching development has been terrible...disappointment so far with tremendous talents like Hall and Rodriguez, and no other high upside starting pitchers in our system right now...

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Otter said:

Agreed.  Have to give a lot of credit to our player development and minor league hitting coaches.  They've done an outstanding job developing a number of hitting prospects.  On the other hand, the pitching development has been terrible...disappointment so far with tremendous talents like Hall and Rodriguez, and no other high upside starting pitchers in our system right now...

Has it been terrible or is there just little to work with?

I mean, they have developed some high level BP arms. Obviously Means developed. Bradish and Kremer have turned things around.

There have also been injuries to some higher profile/upside arms.

[Otter]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Has it been terrible or is there just little to work with?

I mean, they have developed some high level BP arms. Obviously Means developed. Bradish and Kremer have turned things around.

There have also been injuries to some higher profile/upside arms.

Yeah, that's true...Elias has not drafted pitchers high, so the development staff hasn't had much to work with.  Bradish and Kremer started with other organizations, so I was more thinking homegrown starters.  But maybe that's Elias' philosophy, let other teams draft pitchers, see if they get injured in their first couple years, then acquire them in trades or as DFAs and develop them from that point on.  I can see the merit in that philosophy, but I'd still like to see an occasional pitcher taken in 2nd-4th rounds.