What if Mateo and Urias are part of the future?

[backdoorslider]

If an ace is available via a trade you gather your nuts and do it. No more pussyfooting around here. World Series time. 

[RarityFlaherty]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I sincerely hope that you are right and I really want to believe that what you are saying is true. It sounds logical and akin to what the Astros have done. 

I have absolutely no confidence in the ultra cheap/constant rebuild approach in terms or achieving ultimate championship success. The model will have us being always good but never good enough, which after the last 40 years, I think we should and absolutely can set our sights a lot higher.

I think if we can consistently make the playoffs, the cheap approach can pay off eventually. I have more confidence in that approach than trying to compete with teams like the Yankees for free agents. Always ending up with the second tier free agents seems like less of a winning strategy to me. 

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Me neither. If that’s what we do, I’d want to maybe look at trading Urias then with how crowded things are getting in the infield. Someone is going to have to go eventually to make room for the prospects.

Or we can trade the some of the prospects if they have more value? 

I’m fine with Urias being packaged as part of a trade to get us the type of pitcher that we need to go deep into October. But if say a Westburg or Ortiz, can get us more back in a trade, I’m fine with that as well. The more important missing piece to the championship puzzle is a big time starter.

[backdoorslider]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Or we can trade the some of the prospects if they have more value? 

I’m fine with Urias being packaged as part of a trade to get us the type of pitcher that we need to go deep into October. But if say a Westburg or Ortiz, can get us more back in a trade, I’m fine with that as well. The more important missing piece to the championship puzzle is a big time starter.

 

Dude I've been saying this the entire season and completely agree with you. The ONLY untouchable guy in the majors or minors is Adley. Everybody else is on the trade block. Everybody. 

[RarityFlaherty]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Or we can trade the some of the prospects if they have more value? 

I’m fine with Urias being packaged as part of a trade to get us the type of pitcher that we need to go deep into October. But if say a Westburg or Ortiz, can get us more back in a trade, I’m fine with that as well. The more important missing piece to the championship puzzle is a big time starter.

Sure. I would definitely be open to trading prospects for a big time starter. Obviously we would rather keep the guys with more control, but they are also worth more. Personally, I want to see us package Norby in a trade the most because he seems to have the worst defense and there doesn’t seem to be a good position for him to play. But that’s also why he probably has less value than some of the other guys, so it’s tough for us fans to say what exactly the best move is without seeing what we are getting back for each first. 

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

I think if we can consistently make the playoffs, the cheap approach can pay off eventually. I have more confidence in that approach than trying to compete with teams like the Yankees for free agents. Always ending up with the second tier free agents seems like less of a winning strategy to me. 

Competing with the Yanks and Dodgers for FAs is not what the Astros and Braves do or have done.

That is a loosing proposition and I am certainly not on board with that kind of approach.

But the ONLY model that I see that has worked in terms of the super cheap approach is the 2003 Marlins. That is TWENTY years ago. I would love for someone to show multiple examples where that has worked. I just don’t think that they are there. Even the Rays who are outspending us by a good degree now AND have the competitive advantage of being able to reproduce ELITE year after year for over 15 years; have come to the conclusion that spending wisely is necessary to win a championship in today’s game.

Spending wisely raises your floor because it maintains a higher talent pool. For as much org talent as we have now, it’s NEVER going to be like this again. Shoot, I would argue no org has had this level of talent in the last 50-60 years of baseball.

What other org has ever had a #1 prospects one year, then replaced that number one the next year with TWO top 5 prospects including another #1? And then the following year had NINE top 100 prospects and close that season out with a potentially 3rd consecutive #1? All while, the Major League team had the 3rd best record in the sport at the time.

This sort of thing just doesn’t happen… like ever! And this opportunity is not going to come back around again. We have to use what we have well and wisely. And not squander it on silly stuff like trying to be cheap and have an “all-homegrown team”. We never drafted any pitching to be set up to do that.

[UMDTerrapins]

Quick thought.......obviously we have some surplus organizational talent. And most of us would like to use that surplus to upgrade the rotation. The number of desirable TOR pitchers available in a package deal is always pretty small, and the amount of competition for such pitchers will be plentiful. The amount of 2B/SS/3B we have in the organization is ridiculous (Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, Mateo, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo, Urias, Frazier, Vavra, Prieto). While we're in the win-now mindset and may even be open to an overpay for the right pitcher(s), some of these guys may instead be dealt for prospects at other positions or to restock the lower levels. Just sayin.....if a package deal isn't available, we are in need of more pitching depth, and we need to start thinking about acquiring prospects for the next wave. We are a very top-heavy organization, with most of our best talent at AA/AAA. If we can't find the right deal(s) for the MLB team, we might find ourselves selectively as sellers....during a win-now phase. Would you rather deal players like Cowser/Henderson for example to get a TOR starter, or would you deal guys like Mateo, Urias, Santander, Frazier for prospects that extend your competitive window, promote guys like Westburg/Ortiz/Cowser, and roll the dice with the rotation we have and hope to find a FA starter in the offseason? With so much talent, there are lots of ways to use those resources. I just wish I had faith that Elias knows what to do with the talent he knows pretty expertly how to amass. 

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, backdoorslider said:

 

Dude I've been saying this the entire season and completely agree with you. The ONLY untouchable guy in the majors or minors is Adley. Everybody else is on the trade block. Everybody. 

No Grayson is on that list too. Because he is the only pitcher in our whole org who has the talent/pitch arsenal to be a true top of the rotation pitcher. And the truth is, we are going to need his development PLUS another top starter in order to be successful in the postseason.

Look at our competitors in the AL. Most of them already have that. We are not sending the Kremers and Bradishes of the world out against Garret Cole, Gausman, Manoah, Valdez, deGrom, Bieber, etc. and finding success. 

That’s called bringing a knife to a gun fight…lol

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Sure. I would definitely be open to trading prospects for a big time starter. Obviously we would rather keep the guys with more control, but they are also worth more. Personally, I want to see us package Norby in a trade the most because he seems to have the worst defense and there doesn’t seem to be a good position for him to play. But that’s also why he probably has less value than some of the other guys, so it’s tough for us fans to say what exactly the best move is without seeing what we are getting back for each first. 

If you know that about Norby chances are the other clubs do as well.

We are going to have to give in order to get. But the good news is that we have so much (currently NINE top 100 prospects) that we will be good either way. 

At most I figure a Soto type trade will cost us 3 of those 9. 6 is still better than every other org in baseball not named the Dodgers and Guardians.

[sportsfan8703]

Back to the OP, I think we have to reevaluate what position we're in come next offseason.  The goal shouldn't be to make the playoffs with everyone on the roster in pre-arb/early arb, it should be to win a WS.  Mateo is a keeper to me.  His athleticism isn't going anywhere soon.  He's put it all together the last two seasons.  Maybe you trade away Mateo in a "Pablo Lopez" type deal, but I think he's moved into untouchable.  

 

Only an Ohtani trade makes you rethink what untouchable really is and that might be Jackson Holliday.  

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

But the ONLY model that I see that has worked in terms of the super cheap approach is the 2003 Marlins. That is TWENTY years ago. I would love for someone to show multiple examples where that has worked. I just don’t think that they are there. Even the Rays who are outspending us by a good degree now AND have the competitive advantage of being able to reproduce ELITE year after year for over 15 years; have come to the conclusion that spending wisely is necessary to win a championship in today’s game.

Spending wisely raises your floor because it maintains a higher talent pool. For as much org talent as we have now, it’s NEVER going to be like this again. Shoot, I would argue no org has had this level of talent in the last 50-60 years of baseball.

 

2014-15 Royals were one of the cheaper teams in recent history. 2020 Rays came pretty close.

[RarityFlaherty]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Competing with the Yanks and Dodgers for FAs is not what the Astros and Braves do or have done.

That is a loosing proposition and I am certainly not on board with that kind of approach.

But the ONLY model that I see that has worked in terms of the super cheap approach is the 2003 Marlins. That is TWENTY years ago. I would love for someone to show multiple examples where that has worked. I just don’t think that they are there. Even the Rays who are outspending us by a good degree now AND have the competitive advantage of being able to reproduce ELITE year after year for over 15 years; have come to the conclusion that spending wisely is necessary to win a championship in today’s game.

Spending wisely raises your floor because it maintains a higher talent pool. For as much org talent as we have now, it’s NEVER going to be like this again. Shoot, I would argue no org has had this level of talent in the last 50-60 years of baseball.

What other org has ever had a #1 prospects one year, then replaced that number one the next year with TWO top 5 prospects including another #1? And then the following year had NINE top 100 prospects and close that season out with a potentially 3rd consecutive #1? All while, the Major League team had the 3rd best record in the sport at the time.

This sort of thing just doesn’t happen… like ever! And this opportunity is not going to come back around again. We have to use what we have well and wisely. And not squander it on silly stuff like trying to be cheap and have an “all-homegrown team”. We never drafted any pitching to be set up to do that.

Eh, I think with the right talent, we could make a run being super cheap. But that isn’t ideal, or I think what any of the fans want either.
 

I think you’re totally correct that spending wisely is the key to success though. But then we can argue about what spending wisely means forever. As far as Mateo and Urias go, extending guys who aren’t free agents until they are 30+ doesn’t seem like spending wisely to me. Gunnar should be looked at as the future at 3B, with Holiday at SS. Mateo can be the placeholder until Holiday is ready, or traded in the off-season for pitching if we think a guy like Ortiz can hold down that spot for a year until Holiday is up. But there’s a lot of different directions we can go and that’s not a bad problem to have. 

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Quick thought.......obviously we have some surplus organizational talent. And most of us would like to use that surplus to upgrade the rotation. The number of desirable TOR pitchers available in a package deal is always pretty small, and the amount of competition for such pitchers will be plentiful. The amount of 2B/SS/3B we have in the organization is ridiculous (Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, Mateo, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo, Urias, Frazier, Vavra, Prieto). While we're in the win-now mindset and may even be open to an overpay for the right pitcher(s), some of these guys may instead be dealt for prospects at other positions or to restock the lower levels. Just sayin.....if a package deal isn't available, we are in need of more pitching depth, and we need to start thinking about acquiring prospects for the next wave. We are a very top-heavy organization, with most of our best talent at AA/AAA. If we can't find the right deal(s) for the MLB team, we might find ourselves selectively as sellers....during a win-now phase. Would you rather deal players like Cowser/Henderson for example to get a TOR starter, or would you deal guys like Mateo, Urias, Santander, Frazier for prospects that extend your competitive window, promote guys like Westburg/Ortiz/Cowser, and roll the dice with the rotation we have and hope to find a FA starter in the offseason? With so much talent, there are lots of ways to use those resources. I just wish I had faith that Elias knows what to do with the talent he knows pretty expertly how to amass. 

You pose some interesting questions. Thank you for the thought provoking scenarios!

Now onto your questions: 

Yes there will be competition for too starting pitchers but NOBODY in the game can come close to beating the arsenal of talent that we have in our war chest. There are only 2 orgs in the game who have 7 top 100 prospects. We have NINE not including Gunnar. And even when Grayson graduates shortly, Basallo will join that list keeping us at 9. So we don’t have to worry about anyone outbidding us. We can get whoever we want.

Also, I don’t see us having to move Gunnar and Cowser in the same deal unless it’s for an Ohtani, which I would not prefer.

But to answer your main question in terms of if it would be preferable to take some of our top prospects at AAA or AA and deal for equally valued lower leveled prospects, the answer to that for me is a resounding NO!

Do you know how many top 100 prospects that HOU has now? The answer to that is ZERO. Do you think that they would rather have maintained high prospect rankings/talent stock/pipeline or whatever someone wants to call it OR have 3 World Series appearances in the last 6 years and 2 rings?

The name of the game is championships. Nobody has as much org talent as us right now and I’m not sure if any org ever will. We are going to have to get used to having less prospects and lower prospect rankings, but the exchange for that is postseason runs/success. 

Now this doesn’t mean that we should ever discard development and having an eye on the future. That’s where we got in to a lot of trouble under the Showalter/Duquette era. But we cannot afford to squander opportunities like this season saying “let’s just roll with what we have”. Everybody knows that what we have in terms of a starting staff isn’t good or talented enough to go into the postseason with good odds of success. 

And lastly, no I don’t think that we will buy a top starting pitcher in FA. And a lot of times those things don’t end up working out to well. 

I advocate for using what we have in order to get what we need.

[Bemorewins]

41 minutes ago, backdoorslider said:

If an ace is available via a trade you gather your nuts and do it. No more pussyfooting around here. World Series time. 

While you said this in a much more direct/crude way than I would…lol

I agree with the point. Opportunities must be seized within the lifetime of that opportunity. This season has brought to us the beginning of an opportunity. 

If we play our cards right in the end, I want to end up being the next Astros or Braves.

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

2014-15 Royals were one of the cheaper teams in recent history. 2020 Rays came pretty close.

No. The Royals payroll was 127 million in 2015 and ranked 13th in baseball. Our current payroll in much less than half of that and ranks 29.

The Rays didn’t win in 2020 and have never won a World Series. And I would argue that they probably only made it because of the uniqueness of that season. 

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. I’m not interested in close, especially after the misery of being a lifelong Orioles fan for the last almost 40 years. We have WAY TOO MUCH org talent to be setting a bar at close. I’m more in the camp that we should be able to make multiple World Series runs like the Astros, if we play our cards right.