Jump to content

O's The Most Clutch Team In MLB?

Can_of_corn

By Can_of_corn
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s an explanation of the stat:https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/clutch/

Per BB-ref, the O’s have an .842 OPS in high leverage situations, .752 in medium leverage, .713 in low leverage.  So yeah, they’ve been clutch.  

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

  • Upvote 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

But we’re the clutchiest!   It’s in our DNA!

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
btdart20 Hangout Veteran Council

btdart20

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

I bet that’s true in general.  I also wonder if/how team speed influences opposing pitchers?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spy Fox Hangout Veteran Council

Spy Fox

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

That is concerning.

But would a team with a mediocre starting rotation and elite back end of the bullpen tend towards better performance in high leverage and worse in low leverage, compared to the league?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

That is concerning.

But would a team with a mediocre starting rotation and elite back end of the bullpen tend towards better performance in high leverage and worse in low leverage, compared to the league?

Not all starting innings are low leverage and not all bullpen innings are high leverage.

For instance we've seen the bullpen cough up runs in low leverage situations (the O's are ahead by multiple runs).

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spy Fox Hangout Veteran Council

Spy Fox

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not all starting innings are low leverage and not all bullpen innings are high leverage.

For instance we've seen the bullpen cough up runs in low leverage situations (the O's are ahead by multiple runs).

I know it's not a perfect split, but it's still true that the highest leverage innings are often at the end of close games when the back three or four relievers are most likely to be in. 

Though I guess many of the lowest leverage innings go not to the rotation but to the Austin Voths of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I know it's not a perfect split, but it's still true that the highest leverage innings are often at the end of close games when the back three or four relievers are most likely to be in. 

Though I guess many of the lowest leverage innings go not to the rotation but to the Austin Voths of the world.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/tht-live/leverage-index-by-inning/

Data is from the  2013 season. 

          1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9
Top     0.96    0.96    0.94    0.95    0.95    0.95    0.97    0.98    0.92
Bottom  0.97    0.94    0.94    0.96    0.93    0.95    0.95    0.96    1.74

 

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spy Fox Hangout Veteran Council

Spy Fox

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

https://tht.fangraphs.com/tht-live/leverage-index-by-inning/

Data is from the  2013 season. 

          1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9
Top     0.96    0.96    0.94    0.95    0.95    0.95    0.97    0.98    0.92
Bottom  0.97    0.94    0.94    0.96    0.93    0.95    0.95    0.96    1.74

 

 

Know of any similar resource that incorporates run differential? The late inning averages would be the balance of some of the lowest leverage innings and some of the highest, which would be covered by different personnel. 

I guess it blows up so much in the bottom of the 9th partially because of walkoff potential but even more so because half of all low leverage blowout games exit the sample at that point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
drjohnnyfever1 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

drjohnnyfever1

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

This goes to the perform to the competition argument.  While they need to maybe round out the medium and low leverage situations, the fact that they respond in critical situations should not be worrisome.  Instead, perhaps, hopeful because they are so widely successful in those high leverage situations???

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Filmstudy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Filmstudy

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

Agree completely with this conclusion.  Clutch performance is a harsh mistress.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • bpilktree67
      The Difference between the O's and other Playoff teams

      By bpilktree67 · Posted

      I honestly think there is very little difference in most the teams that made the playoffs.  The most wins was 98 wins and there was 12 teams with 86 wins or more.  It also seems that many of the teams are on the same page with scouting and analytics now hitting wise.  Years back you had moneyball which the A’s used before anyone else.  Then the Astros and few teams started with analytics and seemed to be ahead of the rest of the league but they have caught up now imo.  Now the move seems to be on launch angle and hitting homers by getting the ball in the air but that seems to be across the league.  Obviously some teams have more money and more talented players but the strategy seems about the same.  The main differences I see is in pitching in the playoffs which is bullpen games and using openers rather then a starter to go 7 innings and carry your team to win now a slight sign of trouble they are taking them out.  With all these short inning guys and pitching them in certain pockets we are seeing very little offense and the hitting with runners in scoring position has been awful.  It all comes down to RISP at bats and getting 1 or 2 big base hits in those situations.  We just haven’t been able to get those hits so far in short series.  
    • OsFanSinceThe80s
      The Difference between the O's and other Playoff teams

      By OsFanSinceThe80s · Posted

      And we've seen similar with Kjerstad. Kjerstad might be the best pure hitting prospect in the Orioles system of recent years besides Gunnar. I want to see him playing everyday next year is possible none of this sitting him versus LHP more often than not. These prospects need to get their reps and stop treating them like John Lowenstein and Benny Ayala.
    • bpilktree67
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By bpilktree67 · Posted

      I don’t see Elias trading off prospects anymore at least top guys.  We have moved a few guys in last year and I expect they try to build that back up.  They should have money to use if they want to add talent.  
    • OsFanSinceThe80s
      Other teams playoffs game thread

      By OsFanSinceThe80s · Posted

      Blah, well Rob Manfred has to be happy along with Fox network. A Yankees-Mets World Series match up is still on the table and the Dodgers as well if they win tomorrow. I knew the Royals would get jettisoned by the Yankees without too much of a fight.
    • Roll Tide
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By Roll Tide · Posted

      For Mountcastle …Maybe Chase Petty and Tristan Smith?
    • Roll Tide
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By Roll Tide · Posted

      I’m guessing they ask for Mayo or Basallo of Kjerstad. For me …I’d give them Kjerstad since he’s defensively challenged IMO. Maybe Kjerstad, McDermott, Beavers, and O’Ferrall? 
    • 24fps
      The Difference between the O's and other Playoff teams

      By 24fps · Posted

      192 wins in two seasons is a pretty strong argument to stay the course.  That said, I wonder if the young players wouldn't be better off long-term if the scientific matchups took a back seat to the raw talent a little more than we've seen.  Overthinking something can be a thing you know.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...