If you were Adley, what contract terms would you agree to today if offered?

[Frobby]

On 5/19/2023 at 9:39 AM, Moose Milligan said:

No, to @Can_of_corn's point, he's there to serve his players.  Per the Schoop anecdote, he got what he wanted, which is a multi-year deal from the Tigers.  Schoop wasn't out there trying to get the most dollars.

Boras isn't the boss in the relationship between him and the player, that's lazy thinking and it's wrong.  And any company that big has their own logo, that's nothing new.  

If you're here to cry about how much people make, that sounds like you've got a problem with other people making money.  

Schoop’s not much of an example IMO.  He wasn’t exactly a super-hot commodity, and I doubt he would have gotten a significantly better deal than he got from the Tigers.  He was a free agent three times and got 1 year deals of $7.5, $6.1, and $4.5 mm.   So when the Tigers offered to extend him for 2/$15 mm, I’m sure he jumped at it.  And based on how 2022 and 2023 have gone, I’m sure the Tigers rue the deal.  

That said, to judge what Gunnar is going to want solely on who his agent is would be wrong.  Carlos Gonzalez signed an extension with the Rockies as a Boras client.  Stephen Strasburg signed two extensions with the Nationals as a Boras client.  Jered Weaver signed an extension as a Boras client.  Carlos Gomez, Jose Altuve, and Elvis Andrus all signed extensions negotiated by Boras.  
 

[Mr-splash]

Adley is a good player and type of young man that this organization needs. His leadership is beyond his years. There is a lot going on between the ears with this youngster. Sign now. Extend. High character player. 

[flaoriolesfan]

I would like 8 years for 200 million, buying out his arb years

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, flaoriolesfan said:

I would like 8 years for 200 million, buying out his arb years

 

So, are you saying to give him a 4/155ish extension?

That’s a huge amount for a catcher playing the first year of that extension at age 30

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So, are you saying to give him a 4/155ish extension?

That’s a huge amount for a catcher playing the first year of that extension at age 30

I think a lot of people fail to take into account the difference between what you have to pay in the pre-Arb and Arb years compared to the FA years.   I’d consider 10/$200 mm for Adley.   If it’s 8 years, I’d say 8/$150 mm or so.  But I wouldn’t do 8 if I were Adley.

[AnythingO's]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think a lot of people fail to take into account the difference between what you have to pay in the pre-Arb and Arb years compared to the FA years.   I’d consider 10/$200 mm for Adley.   If it’s 8 years, I’d say 8/$150 mm or so.  But I wouldn’t do 8 if I were Adley.

SG estimates the next 4 yrs @$45M thru age 29 yrs. Could you offer multiple "stages" for lack of a better word on top of the $45M? Say 2 yrs @$60 thru age 31 or 4 yrs @$110M thru age 33 or 6 yrs @$150M thru age 35. Give him opt out after 6 yrs total. So 6/$105M, 8/$145M, 10/195M, maybe a $5M signing bonus to round up.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

SG estimates the next 4 yrs @$45M thru age 29 yrs. Could you offer multiple "stages" for lack of a better word on top of the $45M? Say 2 yrs @$60 thru age 31 or 4 yrs @$110M thru age 33 or 6 yrs @$150M thru age 35. Give him opt out after 6 yrs total. So 6/$105M, 8/$145M, 10/195M, maybe a $5M signing bonus to round up.

Of course you could offer that but whether or not he would agree to it is unknown and it’s not likely.

Frobby’s deal likely doesn’t cut it because then it’s saying, can you get about a 4/100 FA deal at age 30. I think he feels he could get that at least. But 4/130?  That’s a lot more.

Edited May 20, 2023 by Sports Guy

[bluedog]

Obviously, its just a game, but Ootp Baseball seems to have pretty good modeling for contract extensions. I started a new live start from today's date and immediately negotiated extensions with Adley & Gunnar:

Adley - 11 years / $195.8M

Gunnar - 11 years / $92.1M

In prior games, when I've waited to the end of the 2023 season, Adley wouldn't sign anything better than 8 years @ $30M per year. When I've let him go to arbitration to keep his first few years cheaper, his first FA contract was for 8 years @ $65M per year (Yikes!). Of course by that time he'd put up 7 straight all star appearances, over 40 WAR and collected an MVP trophy and I was in a bidding war with the Yankees, Padres and Dodgers to sign him.

So I'd say lock him up right the hell now.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course you could offer that but whether or not he would agree to it is unknown and it’s not likely.

Frobby’s deal likely doesn’t cut it because then it’s saying, can you get about a 4/100 FA deal at age 30. I think he feels he could get that at least. But 4/130?  That’s a lot more.

Keep in mind that no catcher has ever made more than $23.75 mm in a season, and only one (Mauer) has earned more than $175 mm in a career, and it took 15 years to do it.   

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Keep in mind that no catcher has ever made more than $23.75 mm in a season, and only one (Mauer) has earned more than $175 mm in a career, and it took 15 years to do it.   

I’m fully well aware. If only contract numbers didn’t increase, this may be valid. 
 

On top of that, you are trying to entice a guy to sign now and not wait. Offering him a lesser deal isn’t going to do that.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m fully well aware. If only contract numbers didn’t increase, this may be valid. 
 

On top of that, you are trying to entice a guy to sign now and not wait. Offering him a lesser deal isn’t going to do that.

My proposal puts him at Posey plus 20% for inflation.  Posey had won an MVP and two WS when he signed that deal.  

I think you have it backwards.  Waiting is risky.  Players take a discount to avoid the risk that something bad happens to them before free agency.  
 

[foxfield]

Not signing a contract is a huge risk for Adley.  He could be hurt tomorrow and have his 8M plus and have to live with it.  He plays the most demanding position in the game and is going to be 30 if he wants to hold out and max his contract value.  

The Orioles hopefully will offer a deal at 8-10 years and take some of that risk off of him and onto them.  8 years and 150 or 160 should be the starting point.  10 years at 200 or less should be the max.  Could he earn more....of course.  Should the Orioles pay more?  That is tougher.

8 years is probably the sweet spot, but of course if Adley gets Super 2 status, maybe he really wants to roll the dice and bet on himself.  It is a tougher call I think than it appears.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My proposal puts him at Posey plus 20% for inflation.  Posey had won an MVP and two WS when he signed that deal.  

I think you have it backwards.  Waiting is risky.  Players take a discount to avoid the risk that something bad happens to them before free agency.  
 

It’s a risk either way, that much is obvious.

However, there is taking the risk and there is betting on yourself. 4/100 is a deal I think he bets on himself to get or beat later.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a risk either way, that much is obvious.

However, there is taking the risk and there is betting on yourself. 4/100 is a deal I think he bets on himself to get or beat later.

What is 4/$100?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

What is 4/$100?

If you are offering 8/150, you are essentially offering what he gets the next 4 year with a 4/100 extension on top of that, give or take.