Ben Verlander: Os on cusp of dynasty…if they buy in

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

A lot to unpack here and while agree with a lot of what you wrote, especially about hiw the foundation of this organization is so much better, I do want to address two things.

One, Duquette was never brought in here to build a foundation he was brought in to win. Duquette was in win now mode and by 2014, he had built a world Series contender that was short circuited by a white hot Royals team in the ALCS. We will never know if Duquette would have been able to make another run because his power and influence for making major moves was destroyed by the Toronto fiasco. 

Now I think Elias is way better at building a strong foundation through his drafting, development and using technology to give his organization an edge. I absolutely think this organization is setup for a sustained run of successful baseball and Elias gets the credit for that as the man in charge of this rebuild. 

The questions that still remain though with Elias:
Can he acquire or develop top starting pitching, especially since he does not spend his high draft picks on pitchers?
Does he have the negotiation skills to pull off trades at the trading deadline or in the offseason that fill immediate needs?
Is he able to understand the free agent market each year and not overpay for redundant players and miss out on players he has a need for?
Is able to trade effectively by replacing average major league players that are getting expensive with the right prospects in order to keep his payroll down and afford those impact players?
Can he build a 26-man roster without redundant players and holes? 

We'll find out over the next year or two whether he can answer these questions, because these are the questions that will determine whether the Orioles become one of the elite teams in the major leagues with sustained success year in and year out or just that surprise up and coming team that never takes that next step.

 

Tony, I totally agree with you in that Duquette had different goals and objectives than Elias. But that was the problem in the first place. Somebody has to serve as the caretaker of the longer term future of the franchise. Plus the power dynamics between him and Buck where unsustainable. The on field manger should never be able to usurp the authority of the GM (who is technically his boss). We had a very flawed org chart.

I also believe that Elias still has many unchecked boxes/slashed questions that he still has to answer if we are going to get over the hump and become more like the Giants and Astros than the Nats/Royals.

However, I agree with the gentlemen in the vid Mr. Verlander in that the MAJOR question that must be answered is from ownership, who has historically been awful. I don't see us sustaining excellence as an org, without serious ownership investment and support. Will the evil Angelos empire actually do the right thing? Will ownership give Elias the support, assistance, and tools that he needs to effectively answer the questions that you pose? Will ownership actually care enough about the sustained success of the Baltimore Orioles World Series pursuits to do what it takes? The evil Angelos empire has had it real cushy the last 5 years, but the time is coming (and pretty soon) where ownership is going to have to "pay the piper" if we are to maximize this wonderful opportunity.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Gonna be fun to watch as all the baseball writers who dunked on the O's for tanking now pivot to dunking on them for not locking up the talent they accrued through tanking. 

And they would be correct in doing so….because the attack is really on ownership and if they don’t do allow Elias to do what he needs to do, ownership deserves every bash fest they get and then some.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, oriole said:

John Angelos is riding this gravy train til the appropriate time to sell. I have no doubt that there will always be an excuse why the Orioles can’t spend on free agents or extensions. He’s already basically ruled out a Rutschman extension, so the key is to win during the window that he’s here.

 

Angelos absolutely has not said anything ruling out a Rutschman extension, and I’m getting really tired of hearing people say things like this.  Here’s his exact quote:

“[Elias & co. are] going to do what they can within the system that they’re in,” Angelos said. “Does that mean extensions? Absolutely, I would hope so. But you gotta go with the system you’re in.”

That’s it.  That’s the whole quote.  

Now, the people who don’t like Angelos or who are predisposed to think the O’s won’t do extensions are spinning that to mean that the O’s won’t extend this player or that.   And maybe they won’t.  But that is not what he said.  

“The system we’re in” allows teams like Tampa and Cleveland to do extensions for key players, and they do them.  There’s nothing Angelos said that suggests the O’s wouldn’t do what smaller market teams like that have done.  The only thing that suggests the O’s wouldn’t do them is the fact that they haven’t done so yet since the rebuild began.  But, it’s very arguable that the timing wasn’t right yet or that the right opportunity hasn’t come up yet.  In any event, Angelos has said nothing ruling out an extension for Rutschman or anyone else. 

 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

And they would be correct in doing so….because the attack is really on ownership and if they don’t do allow Elias to do what he needs to do, ownership deserves every bash fest they get and then some.

Yeah meh whatever. It's a boring topic. It either happens or it doesn't. It's just funny that all these guys hated the tanking but love the talent that directly resulted from said tanking. 

[Bemorewins]

49 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

It cracks me up when the hot take is doing the opposite of what they've done to achieve success.  Not that I disagree with all or some of what he is saying, it's just funny to me.   "Look at this team with the second-best record in baseball.  they have no chance at winning unless they make some wholesale changes immediately.'' 

This team that has the second best record on May 19 has not been built to win a World Series. We simply do not have enough starting pitching talent, especially with the gaping hole at in the front of the rotation. 

We have an over abundance of positional talent and depth, but our problem as the season goes on (and it's already beginning to peek it's ugly beak) is that we don't get enough length and consistent results from our starters. We have a bunch of "5 and dive guys" and one guy who can go a little longer in games but is mediocre at best. Our bullpen will be fried come September like last year. Look at how many appearances a guy like Baker has already had thus far this season. It's way too many! 

And then when we enter the postseason with the way things stand now, what has been our pitching strength will not be with the worn down bullpen and the same mediocre starters.

Any objective view can see, that we are good and on the right track, but there is still a heck of a lot more work to be done. And I haven't even talked about the work that ownership will have to do in terms of spending money. Look at the Astros and Braves payrolls. Look at where the Giants ranked when they were on their run. Good players cost money plain and simple, even if the plan is to retain the ones that you have.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah meh whatever. It's a boring topic. It either happens or it doesn't. It's just funny that all these guys hated the tanking but love the talent that directly resulted from said tanking. 

Both can be true 

[Bemorewins]

33 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Maybe I'm making this up, but I could have sworn I read that Sig was very against the Verlander trade and some of the other big signings.  They thought the development system could create the perfect player and wanted to do everything internally.  I own a construction company and kind of liken the thought to using sub-contractors vs. employees.  I loath sub-contractors because they were not trained by us, do not know our system, and do not perform at the high standard we demand.  I do think they will make a trade at some point, but I'm not sure it's going to be any crazy blockbuster (fingrers crossed for Burnes).  I think they truly believe they can do this entire thing in house.  Is that the right approach?  I dunno.  Not sure I have an opinion on it either.  I am, however, incredibly curious to see how it plays out.  I just find it comical they are doing things differently than the industry standard, having success, and people are telling them they are doing it wrong and screwing everything up along the way.  

If that is true, that type of dogmatic arrogance will be our ultimate undoing. 

I haven't heard many if any saying that what the Orioles are doing is all "wrong and they are screwing everything up". I believe what I am saying is that what got us to this point, will not be all that is suitable to get us across the finish line, especially not multiple times.

[geschinger]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Angelos absolutely has not said anything ruling out a Rutschman extension, and I’m getting really tired of hearing people say things like this.  Here’s his exact quote:

“[Elias & co. are] going to do what they can within the system that they’re in,” Angelos said. “Does that mean extensions? Absolutely, I would hope so. But you gotta go with the system you’re in.”

That’s it.  That’s the whole quote.  

Now, the people who don’t like Angelos or who are predisposed to think the O’s won’t do extensions are spinning that to mean that the O’s won’t extend this player or that.   And maybe they won’t.  But that is not what he said.  

I'm still hopeful the Orioles will do extensions but I think the number that Elias will want to do will be less than many posters want.  I think part of the model - especially with the college draftees - is to let them contribute for 5-6 years under control and either move them at the end of that time or let them walk.  

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

A lot to unpack here and while agree with a lot of what you wrote, especially about hiw the foundation of this organization is so much better, I do want to address two things.

One, Duquette was never brought in here to build a foundation he was brought in to win. Duquette was in win now mode and by 2014, he had built a world Series contender that was short circuited by a white hot Royals team in the ALCS. We will never know if Duquette would have been able to make another run because his power and influence for making major moves was destroyed by the Toronto fiasco. 

Now I think Elias is way better at building a strong foundation through his drafting, development and using technology to give his organization an edge. I absolutely think this organization is setup for a sustained run of successful baseball and Elias gets the credit for that as the man in charge of this rebuild. 

The questions that still remain though with Elias:
Can he acquire or develop top starting pitching, especially since he does not spend his high draft picks on pitchers?
Does he have the negotiation skills to pull off trades at the trading deadline or in the offseason that fill immediate needs?
Is he able to understand the free agent market each year and not overpay for redundant players and miss out on players he has a need for?
Is able to trade effectively by replacing average major league players that are getting expensive with the right prospects in order to keep his payroll down and afford those impact players?
Can he build a 26-man roster without redundant players and holes? 

We'll find out over the next year or two whether he can answer these questions, because these are the questions that will determine whether the Orioles become one of the elite teams in the major leagues with sustained success year in and year out or just that surprise up and coming team that never takes that next step.

 

I would add that Duquette was brought in because no one else wanted the job.  One of the failings of PA was that his meddling made the GM job much less attractive.  Duquette was an upgrade over Syd Thrift but I don't think anyone was interested in him before his Orioles stint and most telling no one has been after.  

[Bemorewins]

36 minutes ago, oriole said:

John Angelos is riding this gravy train til the appropriate time to sell. I have no doubt that there will always be an excuse why the Orioles can’t spend on free agents or extensions. He’s already basically ruled out a Rutschman extension, so the key is to win during the window that he’s here. Without a significant payroll increase we’ll be looking at a perennial wild card chaser…which is satisfactory considering where the team has been in recent history. I’d rather see this “dynasty” idea come into fruition but let’s face it, John is solely running the O’s to maximize profit, which is his right. He’s hired the right guy to do it and has already painted the organization as a bottom tier market when he compared the team to the Rays and Pirates. Luckily Elias is on board or I’d feel rather hopeless.

 

 

I hope against hope that what you are stating is not true. If it is, I'm wasting my time as a fan. No, after 40 years (just about my entire lifetime of memories as a fan) I will not be pacified by a consistent level of being almost kind of good enough. If the goal is not to have a World Series game in Baltimore, then what is the point? Just to appear like you care, so that you can trick the fans into continuing to support your ulterior motives?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I'm still hopeful the Orioles will do extensions but I think the number that Elias will want to do will be less than many posters want.  I think part of the model - especially with the college draftees - is to let them contribute for 5-6 years under control and either move them at the end of that time or let them walk.  

We don’t need to be Atlanta, as I’m guessing they will regret some of the extensions.

I would try to get Adley, Holliday and Gunnar signed but all 3 have their challenges.

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Angelos absolutely has not said anything ruling out a Rutschman extension, and I’m getting really tired of hearing people say things like this.  Here’s his exact quote:

“[Elias & co. are] going to do what they can within the system that they’re in,” Angelos said. “Does that mean extensions? Absolutely, I would hope so. But you gotta go with the system you’re in.”

That’s it.  That’s the whole quote.  

Now, the people who don’t like Angelos or who are predisposed to think the O’s won’t do extensions are spinning that to mean that the O’s won’t extend this player or that.   And maybe they won’t.  But that is not what he said.  

“The system we’re in” allows teams like Tampa and Cleveland to do extensions for key players, and they do them.  There’s nothing Angelos said that suggests the O’s wouldn’t do what smaller market teams like that have done.  The only thing that suggests the O’s wouldn’t do them is the fact that they haven’t done so yet since the rebuild began.  But, it’s very arguable that the timing wasn’t right yet or that the right opportunity hasn’t come up yet.  In any event, Angelos has said nothing ruling out an extension for Rutschman or anyone else. 

 

The proof is and will be in the pudding. He can say whatever he wants. But until he actually DOES something, I think it's a fair critique given his history to at the very least question his investment/spending on the team.

If he doesn't have it, I hope that he sells. And I will wish him all the best in his life's pursuits. But he should not continue to run the baseball team (which is a public trust) in a manner that he has. Not changing his method of operating, is not in the interest of anyone not named Angelos.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

This team that has the second best record on May 19 has not been built to win a World Series. We simply do not have enough starting pitching talent, especially with the gaping hole at in the front of the rotation. 

You know, I hear stuff like this all the time, especially from you, but the fact is, teams have won the World Series with average to below average starting pitching and no real ace.  Take the 2015 Royals, who were 12th in the AL in starter ERA.

Now, don’t get me wrong.  Having better starting pitching would improve our chances by a lot.  I want the team to go out and acquire a front line starter. I’m sure if I iooked at all WS winners over the last X years, I’d find that most of them had above average starting pitching.   But like pretty much anything in baseball, there is no absolute one way to win a World Series.  

And, it’s also possible that our current crop of starters will be looking pretty good by the end of the year.  We’ve seen plenty of times in MLB where a young staff has gotten better as the year progressed. 

Again, I agree we should seek out some TOR help.  But I won’t say we couldn’t possibly win a WS without it.  

 

[geschinger]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

The proof is and will be in the pudding. He can say whatever he wants. But until he actually DOES something, I think it's a fair critique given his history to at the very least question his investment/spending on the team.

It is definitely a concern and one that I share.  However, at this point, there is nothing he has not done yet that is problematic in the context of what I believe Elias was hired to do.

In an alternative universe, if Elias was tasked to implement the Astros blueprint by a perfect owner who was willing to do 100% of what Elias wanted to do, I'm not sure we'd see much difference with the org today.

[Mr-splash]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You know, I hear stuff like this all the time, especially from you, but the fact is, teams have won the World Series with average to below average starting pitching and no real ace.  Take the 2015 Royals, who were 12th in the AL in starter ERA.

Now, don’t get me wrong.  Having better starting pitching would improve our chances by a lot.  I want the team to go out and acquire a front line starter. I’m sure if I iooked at all WS winners over the last X years, I’d find that most of them had above average starting pitching.   But like pretty much anything in baseball, there is no absolute one way to win a World Series.  

And, it’s also possible that our current crop of starters will be looking pretty good by the end of the year.  We’ve seen plenty of times in MLB where a young staff has gotten better as the year progressed. 

Again, I agree we should seek out some TOR help.  But I won’t say we couldn’t possibly win a WS without it.  

 

To be frank, Wells and Bradish are looking pretty good right now. Now don't get me wrong, they're blowing guys away, but what they are doing has been a pleasant surprise. They have been more effective than we thought they would be.