Margin of victory/defeat

[Frobby]

It’s not your imagination - this team plays a lot of close games.  Only 3 games all year have been decided by five runs or more.   Here’s a breakdown:

9-5 in 1-run games

6-2 in 2-run games

4-5 in 3-run games

9-3 in 4-run games

2-0 in 5-run games

0-1 in 6-run games

The number of 1-run games we’ve played (14) is not extraordinary; the league mean is 13.47.  Cleveland has played in 20 1-run games, the Angels in 18; fewest is Texas with 8 and Houston with 9.  We’re tied for 6th most.

But it’s crazy how few blowouts of 5+ runs we’ve played in (3).   League average is 11.87, and next lowest to us are the Angels (7) and Cleveland (8); nobody else is below 10.   Texas has played in 21 blowouts (14-7 in those), Tampa 16 (14-2), and Boston 16 (9-7).   Poor Oakland has played in 15 blowouts, losing every single one.  

I feel like the O’s have had several games where they either led or trailed by 5+, but either rallied or gave up runs to make it closer.  For sure, there was the Game 2 loss in Boston where we led 7-1 but lost 9-8, and the May 4 game in KC where we led 8-1 but eventually fell behind before coming back to win 13-10.   But I think there were several more.   

The result of our “no blowout” tendencies is that we end up using our better relievers more than a lot of teams.  Baker is tied for 3rd in MLB in relief appearances with 23 (one behind the leaders); Bautista is tied for 6th with 22; Coulombe, Baumann and Perez are all tied for 40th with 20.  Cano is tied for 70th with 19, despite the fact that he only joined the Orioles in Game 14 of the season.   

Anyway, that’s a lot of wear and tear on the bullpen from all these close games.  


 

[Spakman]

The Orioles run differential is 39 compared to Tampa’s 122. On a side note Norfolk’s is 123. Norfolk could probably win the central division.

[Uli2001]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s not your imagination - this team plays a lot of close games.  Only 3 games all year have been decided by five runs or more.   Here’s a breakdown:

9-5 in 1-run games

6-2 in 2-run games

4-5 in 3-run games

9-3 in 4-run games

2-0 in 5-run games

0-1 in 6-run games

The number of 1-run games we’ve played (14) is not extraordinary; the league mean is 13.47.  Cleveland has played in 20 1-run games, the Angels in 18; fewest is Texas with 8 and Houston with 9.  We’re tied for 6th most.

But it’s crazy how few blowouts of 5+ runs we’ve played in (3).   League average is 11.87, and next lowest to us are the Angels (7) and Cleveland (8); nobody else is below 10.   Texas has played in 21 blowouts (14-7 in those), Tampa 16 (14-2), and Boston 16 (9-7).   Poor Oakland has played in 15 blowouts, losing every single one.  

I feel like the O’s have had several games where they either led or trailed by 5+, but either rallied or gave up runs to make it closer.  For sure, there was the Game 2 loss in Boston where we led 7-1 but lost 9-8, and the May 4 game in KC where we led 8-1 but eventually fell behind before coming back to win 13-10.   But I think there were several more.   

The result of our “no blowout” tendencies is that we end up using our better relievers more than a lot of teams.  Baker is tied for 3rd in MLB in relief appearances with 23 (one behind the leaders); Bautista is tied for 6th with 22; Coulombe, Baumann and Perez are all tied for 40th with 20.  Cano is tied for 70th with 19, despite the fact that he only joined the Orioles in Game 14 of the season.   

Anyway, that’s a lot of wear and tear on the bullpen from all these close games.  


 

Winning close games is a mark of a good team, and vice-versa, this is well known. I would guess one reason they are not in a lot of blowouts for the reason you identified, they come back in games. Despite all the close games, only Baker and Bautista (who is the closer) are at the top of relief appearances. Just wanted to provide a counter to the doom and gloom.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Uli2001 said:

Winning close games is a mark of a good team, and vice-versa, this is well known. I would guess one reason they are not in a lot of blowouts for the reason you identified, they come back in games. Despite all the close games, only Baker and Bautista (who is the closer) are at the top of relief appearances. Just wanted to provide a counter to the doom and gloom.

No it isn't.

Your record in one run games is more likely to be a product of luck than wins with more of a spread.

[SteveA]

There you go... another blowout!!!

[mobico]

How ironic - a rare ''blowout'' in one of the closest games of the year!

[Hallas]

This may be a hot take but I'm perfectly fine leaning into bullpen depth to win close games. Thats a clear strength for this team and it's also an area of player development strength (or at least seems as much so far in the Elias era)

Edited May 21, 2023 by Hallas

[SteveA]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

This may be a hot take but I'm perfectly fine leaning into bullpen depth to win close games. Thats a clear strength for this team and it's also an area of player development strength (or at least seems as much so far in the Elias era)

I do think we are going to pay for it in August and September.   I'll bet at least two of Bautista/Cano/Baker/Perez winds up spending some time on the IL or has a really major dropoff in performance before the season is over.   Hope I'm wrong...

Buck babied his bullpen, and took a lot of criticism for leaving starters in "too long", but at the end of the season those great bullpens of is were still going strong.   I fear that won't be the case with this bullpen.

But if we can bank a ton of wins in the mean time and pick up some reinforcements (either starting or relieving) at the deadline... it's probably still the way to go with this team that we have.   Because I don't think our starters are capable of giving us that extra inning or so that would allow our pen to stay fresh.

[Dunk35]

Yeah Elias is gonna have to bring in some pitching reinforcements. Means will help some, Irvin? But he has to go out and grab a couple arms. 
 

Baker, Baumann, Cano and Mountain are all throwing a ton of innings. They are all big boys but arms are fragile. 

 

[ChuckS]

5 minutes ago, Dunk35 said:

Yeah Elias is gonna have to bring in some pitching reinforcements. Means will help some, Irvin? But he has to go out and grab a couple arms. 
 

Baker, Baumann, Cano and Mountain are all throwing a ton of innings. They are all big boys but arms are fragile. 

 

Has there been any news on Means?  If he was going to be back by mid-season as many people have been projecting, you would think there would be some news on his rehab and getting living innings under his belt very soon. 

[Hallas]

I've got to think whatever pitching program he has going on in Norfolk is going to translate up here.  We've been able to bring in all sorts of arms and turn them into playable relievers.  Who the F heard of Danny Coulombe before the season?  Do we think the well is running dry?  If it is, well... the Rays have made a habit out of milking every last bit of juice from arms before they fall off.  We could try to reproduce that.

[Uli2001]

3 hours ago, SteveA said:

I do think we are going to pay for it in August and September.   I'll bet at least two of Bautista/Cano/Baker/Perez winds up spending some time on the IL or has a really major dropoff in performance before the season is over.   Hope I'm wrong...

Buck babied his bullpen, and took a lot of criticism for leaving starters in "too long", but at the end of the season those great bullpens of is were still going strong.   I fear that won't be the case with this bullpen.

But if we can bank a ton of wins in the mean time and pick up some reinforcements (either starting or relieving) at the deadline... it's probably still the way to go with this team that we have.   Because I don't think our starters are capable of giving us that extra inning or so that would allow our pen to stay fresh.

"Buck" won squat in the playoffs. Where were all those fresh bullpen arms? I say let Hyde manage with his style. It's working. You can't predict what is going to happen in September.

[Fan4Life]

What happened to the AAA/AA shuttle we've seen in the past to keep arms fresh?

Edited May 22, 2023 by Fan4Life

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Has there been any news on Means?  If he was going to be back by mid-season as many people have been projecting, you would think there would be some news on his rehab and getting living innings under his belt very soon. 

There has been news on Means from time to time.   From what I’ve read, everything is proceeding as expected.  But we won’t know if he’ll be back in July until we see him pitching in competitive games.  

[UMDTerrapins]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There has been news on Means from time to time.   From what I’ve read, everything is proceeding as expected.  But we won’t know if he’ll be back in July until we see him pitching in competitive games.  

I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t have a ton of optimism for Means this year. He was an afterthought in the system until he spent an offseason at P3 ticking up his FB velocity.  Unless he can return to his higher velocity delivery coming off rehab and without a similar P3 program, he may be fairly ordinary and not an upgrade to our current rotation. And how much patience can we afford him during a playoff chase? To me he’s a major wildcard, and I’m skeptical. It will be interesting to see how he’s throwing once he begins a rehab assignment.