How much longer can we endure Mountcastle's and Mateo's OBP?

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Bmore,

I like your thinking and agree with you on many points.  I like ME and trust his judgement over mine however the one thing that doesn't make sense is:    

Left Field 

ME stated that it was rebuilt to "attract" pitchers (specifically free agents) and he (for whatever reason) has not been able to do so.  It wasn't built to retain (home grown or by trade) it was built to attract. 

So if we try to define his strategy we have to start with understanding LF.  Maybe it's changed and he will pursue a trade for a TOR starter, the Orioles desperately need innings-the bullpen cannot keep this pace.....

 Maybe it has changed so quickly; that's a little disconcerting but better than sticking with a flawed plan.

 

Unfortunately the window has passed for this season to “attract” or bring in any starters via FA. We cannot know with certainty what the hinderance was with signing any difference making starter. But if you combine Elias’ comments with those of John Angelos; it is most probable that Angelos was the barrier, not being interested in shelling out the money that it would take to sign a significant FA.

If Elias is that dogmatic about significant pitching upgrades having to come through FA, then in essence he will be punting on this season. And I see absolutely no logic in doing that. With one or 2 starting pitching upgrades we could enter the postseason with home field advantage and be a legitimate WS contender THIS SEASON. 

Sports has too many predicative variables to pass on opportunities this good for future results that may never come. 

Of course I’m not advocating for a “mortgage the farm” approach. But with as much prospect positional abundance that we have, I don’t even believe that is possible or a real thing for us. And we know Elias wouldn’t do that (and shouldn’t do that) even if it were an option (which I don’t believe it is). 

If we had to give up 2/3 top 100 prospects. That would still leave us with more or as much as the Yankees and Red Sox have COMBINED. And we would have a much better big league team both now and into the projectable future, with a potential difference making superstar like Holliday still on the way.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Unfortunately the window has passed for this season to “attract” or bring in any starters via FA. We cannot know with certainty what the hinderance was with signing any difference making starter. But if you combine Elias’ comments with those of John Angelos; it is most probable that Angelos was the barrier, not being interested in shelling out the money that it would take to sign a significant FA.

If Elias is that dogmatic about significant pitching upgrades having to come through FA, then in essence he will be punting on this season. And I see absolutely no logic in doing that. With one or 2 starting pitching upgrades we could enter the postseason with home field advantage and be a legitimate WS contender THIS SEASON. 

Sports has too many predicative variables to pass on opportunities this good for future results that may never come. 

Of course I’m not advocating for a “mortgage the farm” approach. But with as much prospect positional abundance that we have, I don’t even believe that is possible or a real thing for us. And we know Elias wouldn’t do that (and shouldn’t do that) even if it were an option (which I don’t believe it is). 

If we had to give up 2/3 top 100 prospects. That would still leave us with more or as much as the Yankees and Red Sox have COMBINED. And we would have a much better big league team both now and into the projectable future, with a potential difference making superstar like Holliday still on the way.

*sorry - autocorrect got in the way. I meant to say “sports has too many unpredictable variables”

[Aristotelian]

42 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

We are not getting Luzardo for just Westburg? Might want to try again with that one. 

I appreciate you sharing that you haven’t seen him pitch before. But let’s just say, he is much better than anything we currently have.

You are not interest in Eduardo Rodriguez or Dylan Cease? … Again they are MUCH better than what we have currently. To be honest Rodriguez is having a career, all-star year, and will probably be in the running for the Cy Young if he keeps pitching like he has. The only issue with him is the opt-out in his contract at the end of this year.

You're saying Luzardo would cost more than Westburg? I don't think I would give much more than Westburg. His mixed track record scares me but maybe he has turned a corner. 

Eduardo looked incredible against us and has great numbers this season, but his body of work is meh. I would definitely worry about an overpay there, both in terms of prospects and contract.

Cease is a great target but will the White Sox be willing to trade him? Giolito makes much more sense from their standpoint and they seem more like a "retool" rather than "tear down" type of organization and trading Cease would be more of a tear down move. Also worry about price. 

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You're saying Luzardo would cost more than Westburg? I don't think I would give much more than Westburg. His mixed track record scares me but maybe he has turned a corner. 

Eduardo looked incredible against us and has great numbers this season, but his body of work is meh. I would definitely worry about an overpay there, both in terms of prospects and contract.

Cease is a great target but will the White Sox be willing to trade him? Giolito makes much more sense from their standpoint and they seem more like a "retool" rather than "tear down" type of organization and trading Cease would be more of a tear down move. Also worry about price. 

Let me see if I can respond to each of your points/paragraphs.

1) ABSOLUTELY! In what world can you acquire a difference making starting pitcher for one singular less than top 50 prospect? I’m not sure what you are referring to with Luzardo “mixed track record”. The last couple of years, he has been really good.

2) If you want somebody with an Allstar career track record, you have to know that those commodities are very rare and very valuable. And they don’t come available very often. If that is your standard then you probably are looking to acquire a Sandy Alcantara which will cost a heck of a lot more than a Jordan Westburg. Try 3 to 4 of him with some having to be better/more highly touted.

3) I’m not sure why cost is a concern in terms of players to give up. We have EIGHT top 100 prospects (even after Gunnar and Grayson’s graduations) with possibly 2 more joining that list soon. Of those, only ONE is a pitcher. There is no place to play all of those guys now or into the projectable future, especially what we already have a the Major League level. We have more prospects than everyone else. If we have to part with 3 or so top 100 guys, we would still have 5 left, which is as much as the Yankees and Red Sox combined.

[SemperFi]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Unfortunately the window has passed for this season to “attract” or bring in any starters via FA. We cannot know with certainty what the hinderance was with signing any difference making starter. But if you combine Elias’ comments with those of John Angelos; it is most probable that Angelos was the barrier, not being interested in shelling out the money that it would take to sign a significant FA.

If Elias is that dogmatic about significant pitching upgrades having to come through FA, then in essence he will be punting on this season. And I see absolutely no logic in doing that. With one or 2 starting pitching upgrades we could enter the postseason with home field advantage and be a legitimate WS contender THIS SEASON. 

Sports has too many predicative variables to pass on opportunities this good for future results that may never come. 

Of course I’m not advocating for a “mortgage the farm” approach. But with as much prospect positional abundance that we have, I don’t even believe that is possible or a real thing for us. And we know Elias wouldn’t do that (and shouldn’t do that) even if it were an option (which I don’t believe it is). 

If we had to give up 2/3 top 100 prospects. That would still leave us with more or as much as the Yankees and Red Sox have COMBINED. And we would have a much better big league team both now and into the projectable future, with a potential difference making superstar like Holliday still on the way.

I agree with you in that there is a short window for the Orioles.  I frankly don't believe ownership/management will extend their young stars and I am very skeptical about becoming the next TB.  And-yes they need to take advantage of it, windows don't open often in Baltimore.  I'm 62 and there is a good chance I won't see another.

I agree that the lack of spending is likely because the Angelos family is being extremely conservative given PA's health, the transition of the franchise (internal or external), and the typical Angelos drama.

I believe ME also has other options, he is very well thought off in baseball circles.  I don't think anyone knows the extent of JA and JA's relationship, the Orioles claimed he was the best paid first time GM but that smells of BS as executive salaries are closely guarded.  But if JA is renegging on budget outlines which affect ME's career the opportunity for him to leave with the best possible leverage was this winter possibly next.

My concern is the seemingly abrupt change in strategy, which rarely happens at well run branded organizations.  You seem to have a similar corporate background to mine and I just find it baffling at this point.  It's fine to say the LF wall strategy didn't work (and it's only year one-for FA's) and move on but doesn't that throw up a lot of red flags about management?? 

To your last point-it would level the prospect playing field with NY/Boston but they also have the ability to add significantly through free agency-something which Orioles ownership/management has chosen not to pursue. 

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Let me see if I can respond to each of your points/paragraphs.

1) ABSOLUTELY! In what world can you acquire a difference making starting pitcher for one singular less than top 50 prospect? I’m not sure what you are referring to with Luzardo “mixed track record”. The last couple of years, he has been really good.

2) If you want somebody with an Allstar career track record, you have to know that those commodities are very rare and very valuable. And they don’t come available very often. If that is your standard then you probably are looking to acquire a Sandy Alcantara which will cost a heck of a lot more than a Jordan Westburg. Try 3 to 4 of him with some having to be better/more highly touted.

3) I’m not sure why cost is a concern in terms of players to give up. We have EIGHT top 100 prospects (even after Gunnar and Grayson’s graduations) with possibly 2 more joining that list soon. Of those, only ONE is a pitcher. There is no place to play all of those guys now or into the projectable future, especially what we already have a the Major League level. We have more prospects than everyone else. If we have to part with 3 or so top 100 guys, we would still have 5 left, which is as much as the Yankees and Red Sox combined.

I'd be interested in Luzardo and Cease. Still...

1. Luzardo has 3 WAR in 2+ years. He really has one good stretch of 100 IP, albeit it is the most recent one. I do not see him as a sure thing. I think Westburg would be fair as a potential MOOB middle infielder with more years of control. I guess I think more highly of him than his ranking, especially in view of his current .975 in AAA. Definitely don't want to do Gunnar, Grayson, or Holliday. Are you thinking Cowser? 

2. Understood. I would be inclined to go higher for an Alcantara type and that is something we should consider. 

3. Agreed, but if we trade some of Hays/Urias/Santander/Frazier for more incremental upgrades we have more space for the prospects to play. I have much less of a problem blocking prospects with prospects than blocking prospects with non-elite veterans. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, SemperFi said:

I agree with you in that there is a short window for the Orioles.  I frankly don't believe ownership/management will extend their young stars and I am very skeptical about becoming the next TB.  And-yes they need to take advantage of it, windows don't open often in Baltimore.  I'm 62 and there is a good chance I won't see another.

I agree that the lack of spending is likely because the Angelos family is being extremely conservative given PA's health, the transition of the franchise (internal or external), and the typical Angelos drama.

I believe ME also has other options, he is very well thought off in baseball circles.  I don't think anyone knows the extent of JA and JA's relationship, the Orioles claimed he was the best paid first time GM but that smells of BS as executive salaries are closely guarded.  But if JA is renegging on budget outlines which affect ME's career the opportunity for him to leave with the best possible leverage was this winter possibly next.

My concern is the seemingly abrupt change in strategy, which rarely happens at well run branded organizations.  You seem to have a similar corporate background to mine and I just find it baffling at this point.  It's fine to say the LF wall strategy didn't work (and it's only year one-for FA's) and move on but doesn't that throw up a lot of red flags about management?? 

To your last point-it would level the prospect playing field with NY/Boston but they also have the ability to add significantly through free agency-something which Orioles ownership/management has chosen not to pursue. 

@SemperFi it appears that we have some things in common though I'm a little younger, I'm in my 40's.

I share you skepticism regarding the leadership and competitive interest regarding John Angelos. I have heard him described by a few people who know him as being the type of person "who was born on third and believes that he hit a triple". Because he did not have to work to obtain his success and has not built anything of substance himself (at least not that I know of), there probably is some truth to him being entitled. I'm not sure that he has the capital to be able to afford the tax bill that he will have to pay once his father dies. That's why I think he probably is looking to sell the team at some point in the near future.

Now, we are not really aligned in the window perspective. IMO - this year has certainly presented a window/opportunity to go for a legit shot at the title. But for the foreseeable future we should be in strong shape. Even if we make a MAJOR move in terms of trade this season, it is not going to impact our longer term chances/success. Our war chest is simply TOO BIG right now.

On to the strategy side of things and the possible pivot. I believe in the philosophy of never been too dogmatic about anything. You have to remain pliable and adaptive to change or else you will find yourself in a bind or eventually backed up into a corner. Yes, it appears the initial plan was to acquire pitching talent through FA. But that should not be the only approach. Elias had to anticipate that if things went according to plan, based on his draft strategy for FIVE CONSECUTIVE YEARS, that he would have more than enough positional players, but not enough difference making pitchers. That's where we are now. He can stay stuck in the dogma of doing things according to the original plan or he can pivot and seize the opportunity that is now in front of him. There is no one trade that he can make that will require him "giving away the store". We will still be in great shape both now and into the projectable future.

I believe that even though the LF alterations hasn't paid off yet in terms of helping us acquire a difference making FA starter, it has helped our pitching staff be more competitive (especially at home). It is a great advantage of neutralizing power hitting righties. And if you look at just about all of our elite prospects, all of them except for Adley are LH (Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad).

Yes I agree with you that if ownership continues to be unsupportive, Elias will bolt (as he should). Everyone (especially good employees) deserve to work in an environment where they feel supported to produce their best results. 

NY and BOS have MUCH MORE money, but no real farm systems. Without that, they are maximizing out where they are with the stars and scrubs roster constructions. Elite FA's cost too much money these days for any team to load up (save for the Mets who have an owner in Cohen with considerably deeper pockets than everyone else). How many more stars can the Yankees afford 1 maybe 2 when Stanton's contract runs out? BOS same one or 2? That will simply not be enough to have a significant talent advantage over us anytime soon. We are already better than BOS and much deeper than NY. If Holliday is anywhere near as ELITE as he appears to be, we could have an Astros like dynasty soon. No matter who they add, it is very doubtful that they will be able to add that kind of difference making element that Holliday projects to be. Can you imagine a line up of 6 back to back hitters in Mullins, Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Kjerstad, and Cowser in whatever order? That will be the best lineup in baseball!

There is a reason that baseball (smartly) put anti-tanking measures in place after they saw what the Orioles were doing.

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd be interested in Luzardo and Cease. Still...

1. Luzardo has 3 WAR in 2+ years. He really has one good stretch of 100 IP, albeit it is the most recent one. I do not see him as a sure thing. I think Westburg would be fair as a potential MOOB middle infielder with more years of control. I guess I think more highly of him than his ranking, especially in view of his current .975 in AAA. Definitely don't want to do Gunnar, Grayson, or Holliday. Are you thinking Cowser? 

2. Understood. I would be inclined to go higher for an Alcantara type and that is something we should consider. 

3. Agreed, but if we trade some of Hays/Urias/Santander/Frazier for more incremental upgrades we have more space for the prospects to play. I have much less of a problem blocking prospects with prospects than blocking prospects with non-elite veterans. 

First, that stretch that you mentioned from Luzardo, how many pitchers do we have currently that are anywhere close to that? Yes you think of Westburg and value him WAY MORE than the game does. Just ask yourself how you would view a mid 50ish rated prospect if he was on another team? Do you think Kyle Manzardo (similar rated 1B prospect for TB) is a future great player? What about Bryan Rocchio from the Gaurdians? Michael Busch from the Dodgers? Those are all similarly rated guys to Westburg who are AAA infield prospects.

I agree, no way I'm trading Gunnar, Grayson or Holliday. I don't want to move Cowser but he would have to be included most likely in a trade involving Alcantara. Him PLUS much more.

To your last point, of those 4 players mentioned NONE have enough value to headline a trade for a major starting pitching piece. Urias  probably has the most value and again he would have to be part of a package involving valued prospects. No rebuilding team is going to really value those guys that much because of their contract structure. I mean Frazier (as great as he's been lately) would have ZERO value to a rebuilding team. He's a veteran player to help a team win now. Santander similar but based on contract legnth. Besides I can't see any young player/prospect coming to the Big Leagues and out producing what Hays/Santander/Urias and now even Frazier has given us. Acclimation/adjustment phase is a real thing... Just ask Adley, Grayson, and Gunnar (who with Holliday) are our best/most talented prospects/young players. 

 

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

First, that stretch that you mentioned from Luzardo, how many pitchers do we have currently that are anywhere close to that? Yes you think of Westburg and value him WAY MORE than the game does. Just ask yourself how you would view a mid 50ish rated prospect if he was on another team? Do you think Kyle Manzardo (similar rated 1B prospect for TB) is a future great player? What about Bryan Rocchio from the Gaurdians? Michael Busch from the Dodgers? Those are all similarly rated guys to Westburg who are AAA infield prospects.

I agree, no way I'm trading Gunnar, Grayson or Holliday. I don't want to move Cowser but he would have to be included most likely in a trade involving Alcantara. Him PLUS much more.

To your last point, of those 4 players mentioned NONE have enough value to headline a trade for a major starting pitching piece. Urias  probably has the most value and again he would have to be part of a package involving valued prospects. No rebuilding team is going to really value those guys that much because of their contract structure. I mean Frazier (as great as he's been lately) would have ZERO value to a rebuilding team. He's a veteran player to help a team win now. Santander similar but based on contract legnth. Besides I can't see any young player/prospect coming to the Big Leagues and out producing what Hays/Santander/Urias and now even Frazier has given us. Acclimation/adjustment phase is a real thing... Just ask Adley, Grayson, and Gunnar (who with Holliday) are our best/most talented prospects/young players. 

 

Agreed, it's a question of tradeoffs and you have stated them well. You have me close to convinced on Cowser for #2 type SP as the general framework for a deal. Then again I also see the case for smaller deals and keeping Cowser. 

If Westburg isn't enough for Luzardo, I would be more inclined to change the target to a '25 or '26 free agent with similar track record but fewer years of control and/or higher salary who can provide the same production without costing as much. 

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Agreed, it's a question of tradeoffs and you have stated them well. You have me close to convinced on Cowser for #2 type SP as the general framework for a deal. Then again I also see the case for smaller deals and keeping Cowser. 

If Westburg isn't enough for Luzardo, I would be more inclined to change the target to a '25 or '26 free agent with similar track record but fewer years of control and/or higher salary who can provide the same production without costing as much. 

That would probably be a Dylan Cease. He's not having a great year though. I wish we could coax Bieber out of CLE, but that is probably less realistic.

[foxfield]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Unfortunately the window has passed for this season to “attract” or bring in any starters via FA. We cannot know with certainty what the hinderance was with signing any difference making starter. But if you combine Elias’ comments with those of John Angelos; it is most probable that Angelos was the barrier, not being interested in shelling out the money that it would take to sign a significant FA.

If Elias is that dogmatic about significant pitching upgrades having to come through FA, then in essence he will be punting on this season. And I see absolutely no logic in doing that. With one or 2 starting pitching upgrades we could enter the postseason with home field advantage and be a legitimate WS contender THIS SEASON. 

Sports has too many predicative variables to pass on opportunities this good for future results that may never come. 

Of course I’m not advocating for a “mortgage the farm” approach. But with as much prospect positional abundance that we have, I don’t even believe that is possible or a real thing for us. And we know Elias wouldn’t do that (and shouldn’t do that) even if it were an option (which I don’t believe it is). 

If we had to give up 2/3 top 100 prospects. That would still leave us with more or as much as the Yankees and Red Sox have COMBINED. And we would have a much better big league team both now and into the projectable future, with a potential difference making superstar like Holliday still on the way.

Spending prospects is likely to happen, but what we have compared to the Yankees or Red Sox is almost immaterial to where we are today in the MLB.  I mean sure it is one area where we have more capital, but it is just one area.  

And trading for Dylan Cease unless he improves isn't really going to change our fortunes a ton.  What I mean is that I don't think Elias is giving 2/3 top 100 prospects for Cease unless they think they can fix him.  I think they believe they can continue to do what they are doing which is clearly competitive.

I hope the O's make a move for a better SP for the future even if that is only 3 controllable years.  But until ME shows he is willing to do so I am not counting on it.

But constantly saying the existing pitching is subpar is not telling the whole story.  The Orioles have multiple pitchers performing better than Cease is right now.

I do agree there is risk in blowing out the bull pen before it the playoffs so...again, I hope we are buyers.  I just don't think the situation is quite as grim as you are consistently painting it.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Spending prospects is likely to happen, but what we have compared to the Yankees or Red Sox is almost immaterial to where we are today in the MLB.  I mean sure it is one area where we have more capital, but it is just one area.  

And trading for Dylan Cease unless he improves isn't really going to change our fortunes a ton.  What I mean is that I don't think Elias is giving 2/3 top 100 prospects for Cease unless they think they can fix him.  I think they believe they can continue to do what they are doing which is clearly competitive.

I hope the O's make a move for a better SP for the future even if that is only 3 controllable years.  But until ME shows he is willing to do so I am not counting on it.

But constantly saying the existing pitching is subpar is not telling the whole story.  The Orioles have multiple pitchers performing better than Cease is right now.

I do agree there is risk in blowing out the bull pen before it the playoffs so...again, I hope we are buyers.  I just don't think the situation is quite as grim as you are consistently painting it.

It doesn’t have to be Cease as I agree he has not had a good season thus far. However, all things being equal, there is NO ONE on our staff that I would take over him to start a game where I season was on the line. I’m not wedded to any one player (Cease or anyone else), but I am kind of strong on the idea that the starting pitching we have is not going to cut it if we are really trying to win 3/4 rounds in the postseason. We need someone who can give us a consistent 6/7 innings of good pitching. Gibson can give us length but the results are not really above league average.

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It doesn’t have to be Cease as I agree he has not had a good season thus far. However, all things being equal, there is NO ONE on our staff that I would take over him to start a game where I season was on the line. I’m not wedded to any one player (Cease or anyone else), but I am kind of strong on the idea that the starting pitching we have is not going to cut it if we are really trying to win 3/4 rounds in the postseason. We need someone who can give us a consistent 6/7 innings of good pitching. Gibson can give us length but the results are not really above league average.

I really don't disagree with you.  But the Orioles record against those pitchers so far does not agree with you.  And the bolded above points out a clear bias.  Cease is like the 50th best SP year to date and there are several Orioles who have bested him...including against some of the teams the Orioles will have to play in the playoffs.

Again, to maximize this chance, I would like someone with playoff experience and I hope that can be done.  I personally like Erod.  But I just do not think Elias is giving up 18 years of service for 3 months or a year of anyone and until he does it I won't expect it.  What I would do is irrelevant.  As you pointed out earlier yourself...if the O's go that route they would likely be in the same place again next year.

[Bemorewins]

18 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Spending prospects is likely to happen, but what we have compared to the Yankees or Red Sox is almost immaterial to where we are today in the MLB.  I mean sure it is one area where we have more capital, but it is just one area.  

And trading for Dylan Cease unless he improves isn't really going to change our fortunes a ton.  What I mean is that I don't think Elias is giving 2/3 top 100 prospects for Cease unless they think they can fix him.  I think they believe they can continue to do what they are doing which is clearly competitive.

I hope the O's make a move for a better SP for the future even if that is only 3 controllable years.  But until ME shows he is willing to do so I am not counting on it.

But constantly saying the existing pitching is subpar is not telling the whole story.  The Orioles have multiple pitchers performing better than Cease is right now.

I do agree there is risk in blowing out the bull pen before it the playoffs so...again, I hope we are buyers.  I just don't think the situation is quite as grim as you are consistently painting it.

Also, prospect capital is really the only kind of capital that matters in season. But if you take a look at the Red Sox org inventory, you will see a GM on the hot seat, one single elite prospect (who admittedly is very close to the level of Jackson Holliday), 3 top one hundred overall with none close to being Big league ready next year, and a misshapen Big League roster. Who's going to play SS for them next year, Trevor Story? Where is their pitching going to come from?  Even if the shop at the top of the market and buy 1 or 2 guys how much difference will that really make considering the rest of their team? They have a few veterans contributing to their team like Turner and Jansen (who will need to either be replaced or resigned) and they have Sale as their #1 pitcher. Even when he comes off the books, then what? They have ZERO top 100 pitching prospects so that will have to be done via FA. All of that said, they are a luxury tax team already AND in last place. Good luck with that! I said it before but they are too good to be bad and too bad to be good. Classic case of being stuck in the mud.

As far as NY goes, they have arguably the game's best player (not named Ohtani) and they have 2 aces (1 who has been injured all year). They have another really good hitter in Rizzo and another big power bat coming back in Stanton. Plus they have superstar potential in Volpe. The problem with the Yanks is that they have a stars and scrubs roster construction because of all of the big contracts that they are paying out in Judge, Cole, Rodon, and Stanton. They are old and expensive and I believe both the Yanks and Sox are in the tax payer threshold as things speak, so there is a limit to how much more they can add. In the Yankees case I believe Stanton will be coming off their books soon, so that will afford them an opportunity to buy another big star in his place. Again, the Yankees have a lack luster farm system with only 2 top 100 prospects and only one inside the top 50. How long can Judge and Cole sustain their superstar level and even as they do how much can they add from FA with 1 or 2 more contracts that will give them a significant talent edge over us in the projectable future?

We are going to have a lineup in the near future (possibly as soon as next year) with 6 very talented hitters hitting back to back in some order of Mullins, Adley, Henderson, Holliday, Kjerstad, and Cowser. That will be the best any team can do going forward for at least the next 3/4 years. The Yankees and Red Sox will not have anything close to that. If we are able to add 1 or 2 significant starting pitching upgrades, everyone else in the AL East (including Tampa) will be competing for 2nd place.

I said all of this keeping in mind that I am pessimistic, at best pragmatic when it comes to the Orioles always. But even I can't deny what 5 consecutive years of tanking PLUS great drafting and development has done for us. IF it wasn't a big deal MLB wouldn't have put the anti-tanking measures in place. They saw what was coming. 

[Bemorewins]

23 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I really don't disagree with you.  But the Orioles record against those pitchers so far does not agree with you.  And the bolded above points out a clear bias.  Cease is like the 50th best SP year to date and there are several Orioles who have bested him...including against some of the teams the Orioles will have to play in the playoffs.

Again, to maximize this chance, I would like someone with playoff experience and I hope that can be done.  I personally like Erod.  But I just do not think Elias is giving up 18 years of service for 3 months or a year of anyone and until he does it I won't expect it.  What I would do is irrelevant.  As you pointed out earlier yourself...if the O's go that route they would likely be in the same place again next year.

First of all, you do understand that their is a serious difference between the regular season and playoffs? What we have done is nice (very good thus far) but in the playoffs, the upper echelon TALENT is what will matter and what will win. Dylan Cease is a much more talent and (even accomplished) pitcher than what we currently have. Which pitcher of ours do you think can go a season with a 2.20 ERA? We hope that Grayson can be a sub 3 ERA guy one day, but he has a long way to go in order to get there.

As far as the service time goes, that's a real issue that you raise. But for a team who has refused to significantly upgrade the starting pitching talent by not really participating in free agency, that is really our only option to upgrade. We are going to have to pay the piper in some way. Either through dollars (which our horrible ownership has refused to do) or through trades. As is, won't get it done when the leaves change in the Fall.

I mean like for real, if we were to match up in the post season against MIN, NY, or HOU, which teams starting rotation would you take. All of those teams have MULTIPLE starters that are better than ANYTHING that we currently have. When you have as much organizational top level inventory that the O's currently have, there is no need to go into a gun fight with a knife.

Yes we are going to have to give up some talent, but that is the only way for us to improve our talent where it counts the most in October... the starting pitching.