I can't see messing with the pitching

[oriole]

30 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think folks are misreading OP. As I understand, they aren't arguing against trading for a TOR starter, they are asking who to take out of the rotation for Means. I agree, it will be a tricky decision... But we don't even have a timetable. He will probably do a lengthy rehab before a decision is made. If I had to guess, he could bump Kremer depending on his performance, or Grayson depending on his innings. Means does have options so they could just keep him in AAA for a longer rehab.

We’ve got a while to go before Means comes back, and whatever the starters are doing then will dictate what direction to go. It’s nearly impossible to figure it out right now. Someone will get injured at some point, both Kremer and Bradish seem 50/50 whether they will continue pitching well, Rodriguez is likely to be handled lightly later into the season….just repeating what you said. But it’s definitely worth noting that none of us can accurately predict anything at this point. 

[baltfan]

We are going to need someone.  No team has all five starters stay uninjured an entire season.  I do understand what you are saying though. Gibson is a gimme to stay in the lineup, but after that it would be hard to know who of the other 4 should be dropped for someone else.  They are all very similar in terms of upside, except G-Rod, and it sort of makes sense to keep it rolling and see what you have.  

[Mr-splash]

I mean we could package something like Mountcastle, Joey Ortiz, Basallo for a #2 starter or maybe even #1 with some years of control left, but if we did this the entire forum would detonate and experience a nuclear holocaust. Everybody wants a top level starter. Nobody wants to trade their prospects. So you just cannot win with these fans. 

Edited May 26, 2023 by Mr-splash

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I hate to respond to these hyper reactionary threads. But in the end talent wins out. If you believe that with our rotation we will be favored to win 3 series in the playoffs to get through the AL, then bless your heart. I admire the optimism of the original poster.

Let’s agree that talent wins out.  I think the open question is, do we nave a talented rotation that doesn’t have much of a track record but is getting better with experience?  And if so, how good will it become if we just let these guys pitch and gain experience?  

I don’t think we know the answer completely, but I’d still say we need a TOR-type pitcher.  We’ll know more by the all-star break.  I do feel strongly that our starters still aren’t getting deep enough into games (Gibson excluded) and that our bullpen will start showing the strain in the second half of their workload doesn’t lighten up.
 

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s agree that talent wins out.  I think the open question is, do we have a talented rotation that doesn’t have much of a track record but is getting better with experience?  And if so, how good will it become if we just let these guys pitch and gain experience?  

I don’t think we know the answer completely, but I’d still say we need a TOR-type pitcher.  We’ll know more by the all-star break.  I do feel strongly that our starters still aren’t getting deep enough into games (Gibson excluded) and that our bullpen will start showing the strain in the second half of their workload doesn’t lighten up.
 

I agree with everything that you said here. I think our guys will get better to a degree. I just don't see anything in Kremer and Bradish that jump out to me as future all-stars or future 1/2/3 starters on a team in serious contention for the WS. I can see it with Grayson one day, and I say about him, he has the talent, if only he ever learns to command his pitches and pitch off of his fastball at the top of the zone. I think he can be dominant one day. I think Wells is a solid middle of the rotation guy. He's already 28, so I'm not sure how much maturing he will do considering he is already in his prime. And Gibson is what he is.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

I mean we could package something like Mountcastle, Joey Ortiz, Basallo for a #2 starter or maybe even #1 with some years of control left, but if we did this the entire forum would detonate and experience a nuclear holocaust. Everybody wants a top level starter. Nobody wants to trade their prospects. So you just cannot win with these fans. 

No, you can’t get a 1 or 2 for that package unless that player is a rental.

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Any of them really. If he is the old Means. Because that guy is better than them all.

Put from a practical perspective, Grayson will almost certainly have an innings cap. And it is possible Wells may have one as well. Kremer is nothing more than a back end starter, so he can definitely go if need be. And Bradish is a #4 type (a little better than Kremer) so again, if room needs to be made, I don't have a problem bumping him.

I know that we are all happy that we just kicked TOR and NY's butts. But if you look at the situation involving colors that are not exclusively orange and back, you will see that our starting staff is currently subpar (especially compared to our likely playoff competitors). We have one league average ish guy who can consistently give us length and four other guys who are "5 and dive" type of starters. There is A LOT of stress being put on the bullpen, particularly Bautista, Cano, and Baker. I don't think it is wise to believe that their current work loads are sustainable.

How do you know if he is the Old Means based on a couple of rehab starts? We aren't going to know that until after a month or two of starts against MLB competition. So it is going to be a hard decision assuming everyone stay healthy and performs at their current level. As much as I like Means, I also don't think Old Means is head and shoulders above our current options. He has a career 3.81 ERA which is solid #3 but not TOR on a good team. That number is above Wells and even with Gibson. Kremer and Bradish are a bit higher but could be trending that direction. Grayson has been a nightmare but if he can fix himself soon he could be the most talented in the group. So I think who Means replaces is a valid question albeit a ways off.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

How do you know if he is the Old Means based on a couple of rehab starts? We aren't going to know that until after a month or two of starts against MLB competition. So it is going to be a hard decision assuming everyone stay healthy and performs at their current level. As much as I like Means, I also don't think Old Means is head and shoulders above our current options. He has a career 3.81 ERA which is solid #3 but not TOR on a good team. That number is above Wells and even with Gibson. Kremer and Bradish are a bit higher but could be trending that direction. Grayson has been a nightmare but if he can fix himself soon he could be the most talented in the group. So I think who Means replaces is a valid question albeit a ways off.

Maybe you missed the word "IF" that I used in my post?

Hey, you don't have to sell me on Means not being a TOR pitcher. I don't believe that he is. I also don't know what you are talking about when you say Bradish and Kremer "are a bit higher". Bradish has a career almost 5 ERA and Kremer's career ERA is 4.50. They are not "almost" as good as Means was. But who knows what Means will be coming off a very significant injury?

Gibson is not the guy he once was. He's out of his prime at age 35 so his career ERA may not have that much relevance when trying to make predictive results for this season.

All of these questions are why I believe prudence says we need better than ALL these guys if we want to give ourselves a reasonable shot at a WS this year.

[dystopia]

I would honestly trade for another lockdown reliever. Cheaper and gives us more options, keeps Bautista and Cano fresher too. 

[Mr-splash]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Maybe you missed the word "IF" that I used in my post?

Hey, you don't have to sell me on Means not being a TOR pitcher. I don't believe that he is. I also don't know what you are talking about when you say Bradish and Kremer "are a bit higher". Bradish has a career almost 5 ERA and Kremer's career ERA is 4.50. They are not "almost" as good as Means was. But who knows what Means will be coming off a very significant injury?

Gibson is not the guy he once was. He's out of his prime at age 35 so his career ERA may not have that much relevance when trying to make predictive results for this season.

All of these questions are why I believe prudence says we need better than ALL these guys if we want to give ourselves a reasonable shot at a WS this year.

Gibson is a late bloomer. His best season was his age 30 season and his second best was his age 33 season and right now he's having one of the best seasons of his career.

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Maybe you missed the word "IF" that I used in my post?

Hey, you don't have to sell me on Means not being a TOR pitcher. I don't believe that he is. I also don't know what you are talking about when you say Bradish and Kremer "are a bit higher". Bradish has a career almost 5 ERA and Kremer's career ERA is 4.50. They are not "almost" as good as Means was. But who knows what Means will be coming off a very significant injury?

Gibson is not the guy he once was. He's out of his prime at age 35 so his career ERA may not have that much relevance when trying to make predictive results for this season.

All of these questions are why I believe prudence says we need better than ALL these guys if we want to give ourselves a reasonable shot at a WS this year.

These numbers can fluctuate a lot. Gibson has gone down from 4.6 to 3.8 in just two starts, so at this point in the season I do think 4.3 or 4.5 is close enough to 3.8 that you don't automatically boot a guy just to see where Means is at with his recovery. 

Bradish is currently 4.34. Combined with 3.2 he sustained over the second half '22, that is pretty solid Mean-like production. Yes, his career number is way worse but a lot of that was his 7+ first half last year.

I am inclined to agree on Kremer, but keep in mind he put up 3.21 last year which is better than Means' best year. A couple of solid starts and all of a sudden he looks like a keeper too, and as OP notes he is trending in the right direction.

 

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

Gibson is a late bloomer. His best season was his age 30 season and his second best was his age 33 season and right now he's having one of the best seasons of his career.

He’s had one stellar season in an otherwise mediocre/league average type career.

Again, I am very happy about his last 2 starts but I’m not getting carried away. I believe he has given up 1 ER in his last 14 innings (two starts) and his season ERA is 3.82.

[Mr-splash]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

He’s had one stellar season in an otherwise mediocre/league average type career.

Again, I am very happy about his last 2 starts but I’m not getting carried away. I believe he has given up 1 ER in his last 14 innings (two starts) and his season ERA is 3.82.

Gibson is the perfect #4 starter. Unlike the Yankees we cannot afford an ace in Free Agency like Cole. We have to develop our own top guy or trade for one.

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

These numbers can fluctuate a lot. Gibson has gone down from 4.6 to 3.8 in just two starts, so at this point in the season I do think 4.3 or 4.5 is close enough to 3.8 that you don't automatically boot a guy just to see where Means is at with his recovery. 

Bradish is currently 4.34. Combined with 3.2 he sustained over the second half '22, that is pretty solid Mean-like production. Yes, his career number is way worse but a lot of that was his 7+ first half last year.

I am inclined to agree on Kremer, but keep in mind he put up 3.21 last year which is better than Means' best year. A couple of solid starts and all of a sudden he looks like a keeper too, and as OP notes he is trending in the right direction.

 

Let’s do it this way. Who’s a more talented pitcher? Kyle Bradish, John Means, Dean Kremer, Kyle Gibson? 

Who’s ever ability you believe in the most should be the one in the rotation. I’ve seen Means be an all-star (pre-injury) and I’ve seen him throw a no-no (pre-injury). If he’s that guy, I have confidence in that ability down the stretch. If not, he shouldn’t be one of the starters that we take into October.

I MOST CERTAINLY DO NOT have any reasonable confidence in Kremer or Bradish’s ability/talents to perform at a high level in the postseason. That sounds like a very risky proposition. 

Again, that’s why I hope that they make a trade (or even 2) to upgrade.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

Gibson is the perfect #4 starter. Unlike the Yankees we cannot afford an ace in Free Agency like Cole. We have to develop our own top guy or trade for one.

Sure they can, they choose not to.