Would you make this trade for Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m looking forward to seeing him pitch so I can get a feel for why he’s having pretty steady success despite his K rate decline.  

Me too.  Odds are good whatever he's doing isn't viable long term.

[oriole]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I would say 6.2 is falling off a cliff.  It ranks him 66th out of 71 qualified pitchers. 

The results are there though. He is usually pitching into at least the 6th inning, limiting runs, keep walks at a decent clip. Yes, 6.2 is bad, especially compared with how he pitched earlier in his career, but how does any of that translate into anything except the fact that he’d immediately be the best pitcher on the Orioles?

[Sanity Check]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Me too.  Odds are good whatever he's doing isn't viable long term.

How long is "long term?"  Do you think he melts down to Greinke between now and the end of 2024?  Serious question that none of us know the answer to.  I'm sure these are the kinds of decisions that make a GM lose sleep, but certainly Elias can make the regression argument to give up lesser of a package, but then what package gets it done, even if we want to take the risk.  He's better than Joe Saunders when we picked him up.

[Sanity Check]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m looking forward to seeing him pitch so I can get a feel for why he’s having pretty steady success despite his K rate decline.  

I'm thinking it comes down to command, changes speeds and changing locations.  I would love to know - with his strikeouts down - how he ranks in exit velocity given up to hitters.  Maybe he's getting better at hitting spots and pitching to contact.

Since so many people here seem to think he sucks now, he'll probably shut us out 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sanity Check said:

How long is "long term?"  Do you think he melts down to Greinke between now and the end of 2024?  Serious question that none of us know the answer to.  I'm sure these are the kinds of decisions that make a GM lose sleep, but certainly Elias can make the regression argument to give up lesser of a package, but then what package gets it done, even if we want to take the risk.  He's better than Joe Saunders when we picked him up.

Pure guess here.

I'd say the consequences of the dimished K rate start showing up by the All Star break.

Bad things happen if you let ML hitters put the ball into play.  Almost everyone has at least occasional home run power in today's game.

[Just Regular]

Bieber is one of the masterpieces in CLE Arms development brilliance.

He was a polished college Arm who didn't throw super fast.     Whether it was weighted balls or some other bit of their Pitching Development knowledge, they helped him find some extra ticks and be the best pitcher in the league for awhile.

Now the ticks are gone but he still knows how to pitch.

Corey Kluber same basic story.    You can almost write it in now that in a few more years Bieber will go to Tampa Bay for one year, they'll get the last bit of use out of him, and then he'll get one last contract from some dumber team and be terrible.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Just Regular

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I'm thinking it comes down to command, changes speeds and changing locations.  I would love to know - with his strikeouts down - how he ranks in exit velocity given up to hitters.  Maybe he's getting better at hitting spots and pitching to contact.

Since so many people here seem to think he sucks now, he'll probably shut us out 

Easy enough to find out?  Care to guess?  Average exit velocity allowed.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=pitcher&year=2023&position=&team=&min=q&sort=6&sortDir=asc

Spoiler

92.2   354 out of 377

 

[ArtVanDelay]

6 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I'm thinking it comes down to command, changes speeds and changing locations.  I would love to know - with his strikeouts down - how he ranks in exit velocity given up to hitters.  Maybe he's getting better at hitting spots and pitching to contact.

Since so many people here seem to think he sucks now, he'll probably shut us out 

I scrolled past this the first time I looked at his Baseball Savant page.  It paints a pretty grim picture. 

[Sanity Check]

37 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Bieber is interesting as the strikeouts have just disappeared this season as they were still decent last year.  He has less strikeouts that Bautista.  I don’t think you want your ace with less strikeouts then your closer.  He still knows how to pitch.  Maybe they will be interested in Mountcastle to upgrade from their horrible decision to sign Joshua Bell to all that money.  

I'm not sure who our Ace is now, but if it's not Tyler Wells, then our closer has more strikeouts than our Ace.  If it is Tyler Wells, then our closer has more strikeouts than every other pitcher on the team.....Only Well and Rodriguez have more.  That says more about the closer than maybe the starters.

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

You can almost write it in now that in a few more years Bieber will go to Tampa Bay for one year, they'll get the last bit of use out of him, and then he'll get one last contract from some dumber team and be terrible.

Also, by 2025 or 2026, maybe WE will be that smart team, even to proven veterans of Bieber's stature.     We got Jordan Lyles $17mm, and let's see what Kyle Gibson ends up with.    I don't believe any multi-year offers from BAL will be presented this winter.

[Frobby]

He does continue to have a very good (though not elite) ground ball rate.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He does continue to have a very good (though not elite) ground ball rate.

And his FIP is 4.  He’s averaging over 6 innings per start and he turns just 28 in a few days. So he’s still young and still effective even though the Ks and missed bats are down.

People need to stop acting like he’s done. While it’s possible his stuff will continue to decline and he won’t be that good in a few years, I think you take that chance.

Verlander saw his K rate go below 7 one year and it was below 8 the next year, both well below his career norms.

Cle will trade him this deadline if they believe they are out of it or, as JR said, they want to bring up the young guys, move salary and still try to win now.

Both situations are plausible. As of today, I would call the chances of him being traded at about 30%…but that number could rise quickly.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

And his FIP is 4.  He’s averaging over 6 innings per start and he turns just 28 in a few days. So he’s still young and still effective even though the Ks and missed bats are down.

People need to stop acting like he’s done. While it’s possible his stuff will continue to decline and he won’t be that good in a few years, I think you take that chance.

Verlander saw his K rate go below 7 one year and it was below 8 the next year, both well below his career norms.

Cle will trade him this deadline if they believe they are out of it or, as JR said, they want to bring up the young guys, move salary and still try to win now.

Both situations are plausible. As of today, I would call the chances of him being traded at about 30%…but that number could rise quickly.

I'm not saying he's done but he isn't missing bats and he's allowing hard contact.

I'm not giving up what it's going to take to get him. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying he's done but he isn't missing bats and he's allowing hard contact.

I'm not giving up what it's going to take to get him. 

We agree that the warning signs aren’t good. But guys have years like this and bounce back, especially ones with big track records and who have age on their side.

The second part is the interesting part. Every one else sees the same things we do. His value isn’t going to be at the level Cle hopes it to be, unless of course he starts to perform better over the next 6-8 weeks.

Does that mean they keep him or do they still want to trade him and save money since he is still performing well enough overall?  I think it’s very possible but it depends on multiple factors outside of Biebers performance.

[2001OriolesFan]

4 hours ago, Sanity Check said:

To get Shane Bieber for the rest of this year and for 2024 ((he's a free agent thereafter, and will likely go that route) and Jose Ramirez (signed through 2027).....

We give up Grayson Rodriguez, Drew Rom, Jordan Westburg and  Colton Cowser.

With Bieber, you've got your ace for the next year and a half, and the proven production of Jose Ramirez for 4 and a half years.

no