How to win baseball games 101

[forphase1]

Ok,  let's get the obvious out of the way.  You win by scoring more runs than the other team.   That said there are three main ways to win IMO.

1) the talent everywhere approach.  This is the best way,  but it's the hardest.   In this situation a team is solid at both pitching and hitting,  with the goal to win games 7-2 or something. 

2) pitching wins games.   Top flight arms, and just an average scoring offense.  Plan on winning games 2-1, 3-2 type.

3) win a shootout.  Average pitching, top flight offense.  Win high scoring games,  expect 8-6, 7-5 type games.

Looking at the Orioles today,  we should be building towards #1, but with the current makeup of our pitching staff we clearly aren't there.   Nor is there any real indication that Elias is trying to establish a top pitching staff, at least not to this point.   He hasn't drafted top arms,  hasn't signed top pitching free agents,  and hasn't traded for top arms.  Maybe that will change,  but that's the current situation.  That largely eliminates #1 and #2 as current possibilities, leaving us with #3.

#3 means we need to put together the most potent lineup we can, with the goal of putting up offensive numbers that will be hard for the other side to match,  even against our....average pitching staff. It's this reason I've been so vocal about replacing the holes in our lineup with those who can likely put up better offense as we need to put runs on the board if we are to win.   The pitching simply isn't going to keep many other teams off of the board.

Long term we should build towards #1.  But for this year we need to score more runs if we want to win,  thus improving the offense should be a high priority.  

 

PS I know I didn't discuss defense, and of course it plays a huge role.   But in most of what we are considering the defenses will be a rough wash (Mateo vs Ortiz and Westburg vs Frazier) or a possible improvement (Cowser vs Santader with Santander at DH or 1st base).  But even a slight decrease in defense can be offset if the offensive gain in worth it.

[OriolesMagic83]

23 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Ok,  let's get the obvious out of the way.  You win by scoring more runs than the other team.   That said there are three main ways to win IMO.

1) the talent everywhere approach.  This is the best way,  but it's the hardest.   In this situation a team is solid at both pitching and hitting,  with the goal to win games 7-2 or something. 

2) pitching wins games.   Top flight arms, and just an average scoring offense.  Plan on winning games 2-1, 3-2 type.

3) win a shootout.  Average pitching, top flight offense.  Win high scoring games,  expect 8-6, 7-5 type games.

Looking at the Orioles today,  we should be building towards #1, but with the current makeup of our pitching staff we clearly aren't there.   Nor is there any real indication that Elias is trying to establish a top pitching staff, at least not to this point.   He hasn't drafted top arms,  hasn't signed top pitching free agents,  and hasn't traded for top arms.  Maybe that will change,  but that's the current situation.  That largely eliminates #1 and #2 as current possibilities, leaving us with #3.

#3 means we need to put together the most potent lineup we can, with the goal of putting up offensive numbers that will be hard for the other side to match,  even against our....average pitching staff. It's this reason I've been so vocal about replacing the holes in our lineup with those who can likely put up better offense as we need to put runs on the board if we are to win.   The pitching simply isn't going to keep many other teams off of the board.

Long term we should build towards #1.  But for this year we need to score more runs if we want to win,  thus improving the offense should be a high priority.  

 

PS I know I didn't discuss defense, and of course it plays a huge role.   But in most of what we are considering the defenses will be a rough wash (Mateo vs Ortiz and Westburg vs Frazier) or a possible improvement (Cowser vs Santader with Santander at DH or 1st base).  But even a slight decrease in defense can be offset if the offensive gain in worth it.

I like the general outline of what you wrote.  I would like to add the modifier that a team w/ only elite hitting and let's assume mediocre pitching will need to do some other things well.  The Tigers of the 1990's tried the "outscore everyone" model and it never worked.  I'm sure there are other examples would be interesting to see if any were successful.  I believe it can work with an elite bullpen and great defense.  I believe the 2023 O's right now have neither.  It is on Elias to make the additions to turn this team into a legitimate WS contender.

[Pickles]

Let me guess. 

The way to fix the team on pace for 100 wins is to immediately call up some rookies.

Novel idea.

[forphase1]

42 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I like the general outline of what you wrote.  I would like to add the modifier that a team w/ only elite hitting and let's assume mediocre pitching will need to do some other things well.  The Tigers of the 1990's tried the "outscore everyone" model and it never worked.  I'm sure there are other examples would be interesting to see if any were successful.  I believe it can work with an elite bullpen and great defense.  I believe the 2023 O's right now have neither.  It is on Elias to make the additions to turn this team into a legitimate WS contender.

Sure.   I'm not saying that the outscore everyone is a path to win the WS necessarily.  But looking at our roster, what we have available in AAA, and the moves that have and haven't been made to this point, it seems to be the path we are currently on.   That can change of course, as working toward being a complete,  #1 type team is best.   But working with what we've got we can score more runs than we currently are. 

[forphase1]

44 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Let me guess. 

The way to fix the team on pace for 100 wins is to immediately call up some rookies.

Novel idea.

Hey,  let's just accept that we are as good as we are going to get and not try to continue improving the team.   Novel idea...

[7Mo]

45 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Let me guess. 

The way to fix the team on pace for 100 wins is to immediately call up some rookies.

Novel idea.

Not trying to argue with you, but would you personally choose to keep playing Mateo? Frazier?

[Malike]

I appreciate the time it took to write that, but I'd be unhappy if they went for option 3.  I don't think having the goal of let's win games 10-9 is remotely sustainable or would be successful.

We're scoring runs and more than most teams. The starters by and large have kept us in games and the back of the pen has been super solid. They need to fix middle relief, this is where games get away from us.

[OriolesMagic83]

8 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Hey,  let's just accept that we are as good as we are going to get and not try to continue improving the team.   Novel idea...

Yes, and other teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays and Astros might not have as good a record as the O's but I know the Yankees and Astros have major injuries and probably the Blue Jays too.  These teams and others will be adding talent at the deadline is a good assumption. 

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

I appreciate the time it took to write that, but I'd be unhappy if they went for option 3.  I don't think having the goal of let's win games 10-9 is remotely sustainable or would be successful.

We're scoring runs and more than most teams. The starters by and large have kept us in games and the back of the pen has been super solid. They need to fix middle relief, this is where games get away from us.

End of April we were averaging 5.26 runs a game.  By end of May that was down to 4.96 for the season.   Currently we are down more,  at 4.88 runs per game for the season.   Middle relief needs help,  no doubt.  But the offense is also not scoring what it was earlier. 

I don't love the third option,  and isn't what I'd choose if I was in charge.  But based on rooster, past trades and signings and minor league depth it looks like the only real option at this point and time. 

[now]

There's a kernel (a nugget?) implied in the OP that to me makes the most sense, in hitting and pitching, and that's balance throughout the lineup and staff. On offense it keeps rallies going; for pitching it limits the big innings; and overall it keeps winning streaks going. 

Maybe the whole discussion is just stating the obvious: get better wherever you can or want to. I used to experiment with sims to answer such questions: spread your team WAR evenly or go with superstars + scrubs (Angels, LOL)? Nowadays Sig's AI no doubt has the answers. I'll go with "Plug the holes, raise the floor."

And (to risk sounding like a broken record), I'll also go with Elias & Co.'s approach to avoid risk most simply by leaning more heavily on the position player side. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by now

[Three Run Homer]

Based on today's game, I'd say the way to win games is to do everything possible to lose a game, and then win the game anyway.    Have your closer blow the save.  Make a bunch of dumb baserunning mistakes.  Have your all-star catcher fail to move the winning run to 3rd with less than one out.  Have a slumping reserve outfielder that you put in as a defensive replacement come to the plate in extra innings. 

And then win anyway.  

[now]

8 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Based on today's game, I'd say the way to win games is to do everything possible to lose a game, and then win the game anyway.    Have your closer blow the save.  Make a bunch of dumb baserunning mistakes.  Have your all-star catcher fail to move the winning run to 3rd with less than one out.  Have a slumping reserve outfielder that you put in as a defensive replacement come to the plate in extra innings. 

And then win anyway.  

Chemistry, baby!

[OriolesMagic83]

27 minutes ago, now said:

Chemistry, baby!

Veteranosity!