Trading for a rental vs a longer term asset

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

The Tigers are going to want teams to pay for E-Rod's 2023 stats, which is the very definition of "buying high". That's a losing strategy in both baseball and life. 

He’s still a rental (with the opt-out) which diminishes the cost/value. 

IF and it’s a big if, he returns from the IL and he continues to pitch like he was precious to the injury, I would consider giving up 1 or 2 players from the back end of our top 100 guys (not named Mayo). 

I guess when I think of what the Dodgers gave us to get Machado, I would start there and go down in price since Machado is better than Rodriguez. That kind of package won’t kills us (to be honest it probably won’t even hurt us at all). And the upside is that we could potentially be acquiring a pitcher who could sit atop of rotation in October and give us a reasonably good chance of winning series (or at least the games that he’s in). 

Btw, I believe we need an effective bullpen arm as well. Because having only 3 good relievers won’t be enough to win a single series IMO.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It is a risk no doubt. But it’s a risk that I’m willing to take. We need someone better than we have now. If not Eduardo Rodriguez (which I am fine with it not being him) then we need someone who can help us even out the odds when facing the other teams’ number one pitchers in October. Currently I don’t believe we have any internal candidates who I would feel reasonably confident in such a scenario. Grayson has all of the talent but he hasn’t put it together at this point.

IMO this was always going to be the inevitable reality given the draft and player acquisition strategy that we have employed for 5 consecutive years.

No one is saying we don’t need to add a pitcher. The pushback is that ERod is better than everyone else by some long shot and that’s your stance. It’s just not accurate.

It’s accurate to say he had 11 good starts this year. That’s about it.

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

As I said, the success of this team is bigger then "this year". And believing that 30 year old veteran is having a career year seems pretty similar to buying a lottery ticket and believing that you'll win. 

Well what would you call the 11 starts that he has made this season thus far and the excellent results that he produced? Can you find anything in Jordan Montgomery’s recent history/game logs that is similar or better? Or I will do you one better, is there any other pitcher that we have or can acquire that has done anything near that?

[eddie83]

An issue for all teams is that a long term asset has to come from a team that doesn’t plan on contending for awhile. With the way the sport is right now with expanded playoffs and some young and upcoming teams finding someone who fits that criteria is not easy. 
 

Lance Lynn is someone I would have interest in. High K rate, playoff experience. He does have a $18M team option, he also has a high ERA. What we need in a month from now will be determined by how the rotation looks in a month. We will definitely need a pen arm.  

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No one is saying we don’t need to add a pitcher. The pushback is that ERod is better than everyone else by some long shot and that’s your stance. It’s just not accurate.

It’s accurate to say he had 11 good starts this year. That’s about it.

I’m open to other/better possibilities/players. I am not a very dogmatic person in this regard.

But I am saying that those 11 starts are much better than what anything ANY of our current starters has produced thus far this season. And I haven’t found or been able to identify another pitcher that would be available that has done anything better. 

Again, I’m not wedded to the idea that we MUST acquire Eduardo Rodriguez at all cost. Shoot I would love for the Orioles to be able to get their hands on one of MIA’s top 2 guys (even though Alcantara has had a very down year thus far). But I just don’t think that is a very reasonable possibility. Shane Bieber has some appeal. But he seems to carry more risk than Rodriguez. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

An issue for all teams is that a long term asset has to come from a team that doesn’t plan on contending for awhile. With the way the sport is right now with expanded playoffs and some young and upcoming teams finding someone who fits that criteria is not easy. 
 

Lance Lynn is someone I would have interest in. High K rate, playoff experience. He does have a $18M team option, he also has a high ERA. What we need in a month from now will be determined by how the rotation looks in a month. We will definitely need a pen arm.  

Let me say this. I really like what Braddish and Wells have done for us this season.

But IMO they just don’t fit the stuff/talent profile that says that they are #1 pitchers on par with our AL competitors.

I don’t know what Lance Lynn gives us when it comes to October. Will you fill confident with him on the mound when our season is on the line and the opposing pitcher is Cole, Gausman, Ryan, Valdez, McClanahan, etc? I would say that we would be a long shot at best facing that scenario.

So if he can’t help us there in that situation what purpose does he really serve? The same applies for Montgomery or Giolito. At least with a Bieber or a Rodriguez I have something to go on except mediocrity. 

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Let me say this. I really like what Braddish and Wells have done for us this season.

But IMO they just don’t fit the stuff/talent profile that says that they are #1 pitchers on par with our AL competitors.

I don’t know what Lance Lynn gives us when it comes to October. Will you fill confident with him on the mound when our season is on the line and the opposing pitcher is Cole, Gausman, Ryan, Valdez, McClanahan, etc? I would say that we would be a long shot at best facing that scenario.

So if he can’t help us there in that situation what purpose does he really serve? The same applies for Montgomery or Giolito. At least with a Bieber or a Rodriguez I have something to go on except mediocrity. 

I get your point. We lack that ace, no question. 
 

I like the K rate of Lynn. Different environment with the Orioles analytics I could see him pick it up some. I think if you looked strictly at a matchup in October we lose on paper most times I would imagine. 
 

I don’t think Bieber is going anywhere. It’s a 2 team race. That division is brutal. This has been by far Erod’s best stat year but once again he is hurt. I think the Tigers will want more for him than what we will want to give up. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I get your point. We lack that ace, no question. 
 

I like the K rate of Lynn. Different environment with the Orioles analytics I could see him pick it up some. I think if you looked strictly at a matchup in October we lose on paper most times I would imagine. 
 

I don’t think Bieber is going anywhere. It’s a 2 team race. That division is brutal. This has been by far Erod’s best stat year but once again he is hurt. I think the Tigers will want more for him than what we will want to give up. 

I find your perspective very reasonable.

What you say is probably true about Bieber. Maybe a pitching rich org like MIA might be willing to part with a Luzardo? I’m grasping for straws here…lol

I know that they are going to be a reduced amount of sellers this year and if those sellers many of them do not have very good players. I just don’t want us to squander an opportunity by making a meh/lateral move for a non-difference making pitcher OR to sit back and do nothing at all.

In order to win a World Series (or at least give ourselves a reasonable chance) this year, next or any; we are going to need to bridge the talent gap in the starting pitching department between us and our competitors. I don’t think the long odds, “let’s try to be like the KC Royals that one time” approach is going to get it done.

I could be wrong though, it won’t be the first or last time.

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I find your perspective very reasonable.

What you say is probably true about Bieber. Maybe a pitching rich org like MIA might be willing to part with a Luzardo? I’m grasping for straws here…lol

I know that they are going to be a reduced amount of sellers this year and if those sellers many of them do not have very good players. I just don’t want us to squander an opportunity by making a meh/lateral move for a non-difference making pitcher OR to sit back and do nothing at all.

In order to win a World Series (or at least give ourselves a reasonable chance) this year, next or any; we are going to need to bridge the talent gap in the starting pitching department between us and our competitors. I don’t think the long odds, “let’s try to be like the KC Royals that one time” approach is going to get it done.

I could be wrong though, it won’t be the first or last time.

That’s just it. I think finding that arm is not easy. 
 

You have Cease. Finding an arm who would be under control for multiple years on a non contender is not easy. 
 

That said. I do think there will be plenty of SP with expiring contracts who will be available at the deadline. 

[Billy F-Face3]

Let me put this out there... if we can get Max Fried for Colten Cowser in a package with some other prospects, would you do it?

The Braves are rumored to be looking for outfielders and a DH. And they've been dominant without him on the active roster. They've proven they will win without him.

I know Cowser is a popular player around these parts, but if we can get a LHP #1 starter in a deal....

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Let me put this out there... if we can get Max Fried for Colten Cowser in a package with some other prospects, would you do it?

The Braves are rumored to be looking for outfielders and a DH. And they've been dominant without him on the active roster. They've proven they will win without him.

I know Cowser is a popular player around these parts, but if we can get a LHP #1 starter in a deal....

No. Max Fried has been injured most of the year, plus he’s a FA at the end of the year. And you know the awful Angelos will not pony up the money to sign him.

Plus why would the Braves (the team with the best record in the NL) be incentivized to trade him? If they were indeed to trade him that would be a red flag for me that they know something.

So, no thanks on all fronts.

[Billy F-Face3]

20 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

No. Max Fried has been injured most of the year, plus he’s a FA at the end of the year. And you know the awful Angelos will not pony up the money to sign him.

He's under team control for another year and a half. He has arbitration which he was upset with the Braves about. This past offseason, he was trying to convince the Braves to trade him.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/atlanta-braves/max-fried-21155/

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Well what would you call the 11 starts that he has made this season thus far and the excellent results that he produced? Can you find anything in Jordan Montgomery’s recent history/game logs that is similar or better? Or I will do you one better, is there any other pitcher that we have or can acquire that has done anything near that?

Snell won the Cy Young and I believe struck out 12 in a game recently.  I'm not sure the Padres will sell, but they're 7.5 games out of the wild card.

[HakunaSakata]

10 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

No. Max Fried has been injured most of the year, plus he’s a FA at the end of the year. And you know the awful Angelos will not pony up the money to sign him.

Plus why would the Braves (the team with the best record in the NL) be incentivized to trade him? If they were indeed to trade him that would be a red flag for me that they know something.

So, no thanks on all fronts.

Why would the Braves be incentivized to trade him? Because they've been winning without him and because there's bad blood between Fried and the team after the last arbitration back and forth. And who cares if he's been injured. If he's healthy when they trade for him that's all would matter. I'm not necessarily advocating trading for Fried (I think he would cost too much), but he's 10 times the pitcher that Rodriguez is. 

PS: He's a FA after the 2024 season, not this season. 

[HakunaSakata]

12 hours ago, eddie83 said:

That’s just it. I think finding that arm is not easy. 
 

You have Cease. Finding an arm who would be under control for multiple years on a non contender is not easy. 
 

That said. I do think there will be plenty of SP with expiring contracts who will be available at the deadline. 

I still think our best bet would be to go the Jesus Luzardo route. Find a semi-dissapointing youngish prospect who another organization has soured on a bit (and who we believe in) and trade for him. Why the A's gave up on Luzardo is beyond me. The Pirates did the same thing with Glasnow.  Someone like Brandon Pfaddt might fit that bill if the Oriole's believe in him.