Can we all agree on one thing?

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I’m not convinced that Holliday is a better prospect at SS than Gunnar. Long term I see it just as likely that Holliday ends up at 2B just as much as Gunnar ends up at 3B. 
 

Defensively Joey Ortiz is a bit ahead of both of the above mentioned as well as JW, which I think is more widely known at this point. 
 

Any of these four guys could be moved for a legitimate TOR guy. Ortiz has the least value right now but the glove plays at the ML level. I’m a huge Jorge Mateo fan but it’s my opinion that he should not be a regular at this juncture. He is who he is and frankly the club needs a little more offense from the position to be a more complete roster. Insert Joey Ortiz and they won’t miss a beat. 
 

I see some Jack Wilson in Joey Ortiz. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a comparable career. 
 

 

This is an interesting take.   Right now it seems like Gunnar and Mateo are getting equal time at SS and Gunnar is holding his own at SS defensively.

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I’m not convinced that Holliday is a better prospect at SS than Gunnar. Long term I see it just as likely that Holliday ends up at 2B just as much as Gunnar ends up at 3B. 
 

Defensively Joey Ortiz is a bit ahead of both of the above mentioned as well as JW, which I think is more widely known at this point. 
 

Any of these four guys could be moved for a legitimate TOR guy. Ortiz has the least value right now but the glove plays at the ML level. I’m a huge Jorge Mateo fan but it’s my opinion that he should not be a regular at this juncture. He is who he is and frankly the club needs a little more offense from the position to be a more complete roster. Insert Joey Ortiz and they won’t miss a beat. 
 

I see some Jack Wilson in Joey Ortiz. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a comparable career. 
 

 

I appreciate the comp and your honest assessment. I don’t discount that Ortiz may be the better defensive player of the four. But the issue i - Is he a better player than any of the four when you combine their offensive and defensive ability?

I don’t think that there is any way that the O’s are moving Holliday or Henderson. And I don’t see Ortiz being able to bring back a TOR pitcher by himself.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Ehhhh I think it stinks to yo-yo a higher tier prospect but I don’t think that it impacted Joey’s value. He can play. Other teams know that. 
 

I suspect that they managed Ortiz and JW how they did not only because the team was (is) winning but also because they are a couple years older than Gunnar. Obviously Gunnar was the higher valued guy coming into this year but JW deserved to break camp with the big club. I’d wager that they assigned him to Norfolk in part due to his maturity level and understanding that he would be promoted at some point and the obvious piece of not having a place to play him regularly at the time.
 

My thinking is simply they wanted to focus on one younger guy at a time. Hence the Frazier signing. They yo-yo’d Joey a bit only because they were never going to promote JW for him to play sparingly and be sent back to Norfolk. I read somewhere that when JW was promoted last week Hyde was instructed to play him over Frazier AND Mateo if necessary. I think Joey’s time is coming. We’re already seeing Gunnar get more time at SS. I think Jorge’s days as a regular are numbered, which probably means also that McKenna is also a sitting duck. 
 

I would guess that if they really truly are intent on competing this year that some point early in the second half we will see a shift from Jorge/McKenna to Ortiz/Cowser. Cowser pushes Ant to more 1B/DH and Ortiz pushes Jorge off of SS full-time. 

Since Westburg’s arrival, Mateo has already been used as a part-time/platoon player. Yesterday was the first time that he started against a RH since Westburg arrived.

I don’t see them bringing Ortiz up unless, someone is off of the roster who currently is an infielder. If the brought up Ortiz with Mateo still on the roster that would mean 6 guys for 3 spots. If Gunnar and Westburg are playing everyday or mostly everyday, that would mean in essence 4 players for 1 spot.

I don’t see them being able to get Mateo or Frazier off of the roster because they simply don’t have any trade value and I don’t see them releasing either.

[Moose Milligan]

Whenever someone asks "can we all agree on one thing?" I'm over here like 

 

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Whenever someone asks "can we all agree on one thing?" I'm over here like 

 

This is one of my ultimately favorite gifs. John Candy was so good and died too young. I probably use this sucker every single day. So good. 

 

[banks703]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

This is an interesting take.   Right now it seems like Gunnar and Mateo are getting equal time at SS and Gunnar is holding his own at SS defensively.

I realize that Holliday is only in his second year of pro ball at this time but to me, Gunnar was the more advanced fielder at the same age. I'm not suggesting that Holliday can't overtake Gunnar but let's also remember that the age difference between the two of Gunnar and Holliday is only about 30 months. What Jackson Holliday is doing this year as a 19 year old is quite impressive, so I'm not taking anything away from the kid. There's a reason why he is the current number 1 prospect in baseball. Gunnar is improving at the Major League level and playing really well defensively. Some of the plays that he's made in the last few weeks have been pretty spectacular. If Gunnar does settle into SS with JW manning 3B, I personally don't see a scenario where the team moves Gunnar to 3B FOR Jackson Holliday. I think it's more likely that they will move Holliday but that's just my opinion. 

 

 

[banks703]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Since Westburg’s arrival, Mateo has already been used as a part-time/platoon player. Yesterday was the first time that he started against a RH since Westburg arrived.

I don’t see them bringing Ortiz up unless, someone is off of the roster who currently is an infielder. If the brought up Ortiz with Mateo still on the roster that would mean 6 guys for 3 spots. If Gunnar and Westburg are playing everyday or mostly everyday, that would mean in essence 4 players for 1 spot.

I don’t see them being able to get Mateo or Frazier off of the roster because they simply don’t have any trade value and I don’t see them releasing either.

With all of the above in consideration, my opinion remains that at present, the Orioles best lineup does include all of Gunnar(3B/SS), Ortiz(SS/3B/2B) and JW(3B/2B/DH/COF). Let's not forget that JW had been getting time in the outfield in Norfolk. This is why I suggested that McKenna (especially with Cowser being only a phone call away according to Elias) is the next to go. I have not seen JW play the outfield so I do not know if he is even serviceable out there but he logged 51 innings in LF/RF in Norfolk before his promotion. Is he Ryan Mountcastle out there or Trey Mancini? I doubt it. He was drafted as a SS and graduated through the system as an actual infielder with at least one scout comparing him to JJ Hardy. I would guess that he is NOT as clumsy or robotic out there as either of the two of Trey and RM. 

I don't think that they have to move Mateo OR Frazier necessarily to get Ortiz into the lineup. Frazier can play COF and could even stick at SS or 3B in a pinch. His career games played are:

2B 632
OF 204
LF 128
RF 68
CF 16
3B 6
SS 5

I really think that McKenna is the next domino but more likely that a move involving him is for Cowser (which it should be) but perhaps management doesn't pull the trigger until Cowser can play regularly. If they demote McKenna to bring up Ortiz they can use Hicks as the defensive replacement in any games where JW or Frazier gets time in the OF. The same goes for O'Hearn, who has cooled considerably. 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by banks703

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, banks703 said:

With all of the above in consideration, my opinion remains that at present, the Orioles best lineup does include all of Gunnar(3B/SS), Ortiz(SS/3B/2B) and JW(3B/2B/DH/COF). Let's not forget that JW had been getting time in the outfield in Norfolk. This is why I suggested that McKenna (especially with Cowser being only a phone call away according to Elias) is the next to go. I have not seen JW play the outfield so I do not know if he is even serviceable out there but he logged 51 innings in LF/RF in Norfolk before his promotion. Is he Ryan Mountcastle out there or Trey Mancini? I doubt it. He was drafted as a SS and graduated through the system as an actual infielder with at least one scout comparing him to JJ Hardy. I would guess that he is NOT as clumsy or robotic out there as either of the two of Trey and RM. 

I don't think that they have to move Mateo OR Frazier necessarily to get Ortiz into the lineup. Frazier can play COF and could even stick at SS or 3B in a pinch. His career games played are:

2B 632
OF 204
LF 128
RF 68
CF 16
3B 6
SS 5

I really think that McKenna is the next domino but more likely that a move involving him is for Cowser (which it should be) but perhaps management doesn't pull the trigger until Cowser can play regularly. If they demote McKenna to bring up Ortiz they can use Hicks as the defensive replacement in any games where JW or Frazier gets time in the OF. The same goes for O'Hearn, who has cooled considerably. 

 

 

I agree that I would like to see Cowser come up soon and O'Hearns be replaced in the lineup. 

I however, do not see the logic of Frazier playing the OF instead of 2B if he has to play. What OF do you want displaced/replaced so that Frazier can take their place?

[Bemorewins]

56 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I realize that Holliday is only in his second year of pro ball at this time but to me, Gunnar was the more advanced fielder at the same age. I'm not suggesting that Holliday can't overtake Gunnar but let's also remember that the age difference between the two of Gunnar and Holliday is only about 30 months. What Jackson Holliday is doing this year as a 19 year old is quite impressive, so I'm not taking anything away from the kid. There's a reason why he is the current number 1 prospect in baseball. Gunnar is improving at the Major League level and playing really well defensively. Some of the plays that he's made in the last few weeks have been pretty spectacular. If Gunnar does settle into SS with JW manning 3B, I personally don't see a scenario where the team moves Gunnar to 3B FOR Jackson Holliday. I think it's more likely that they will move Holliday but that's just my opinion. 

 

 

You may ultimately end up being proved to be correct. But that does not appear to be the Orioles plan at the moment. They seem to like crossing training guys (even their top prospects) for multiple positions. Gunnar at SS/3B, Westburg at 2B/3B. It's hard to see a scenario where they don't continue to do that in the future even as Holliday arrives. 

But if they go the route of guys only playing one position, what you suggests could be possible. However, I think they drafted Holliday 1:1 with the belief that he would be a SS. Maybe I am wrong and they don't see him that way?

[banks703]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree that I would like to see Cowser come up soon and O'Hearns be replaced in the lineup. 

I however, do not see the logic of Frazier playing the OF instead of 2B if he has to play. What OF do you want displaced/replaced so that Frazier can take their place?

I'm not advocating for Frazier in the OF to displace any of the current four guys who are regularly logging innings out there. I'm simply pointing out that he offers positional flexibility, which in my opinion is half of the reason that he was signed in the first place. That and his veteranocity or whatever Hyde calls it. 

 

Frazier in the OF is something that does not get discussed a lot as it relates to the roster alignment but given that he's played OF in more than 200 games in the Major Leagues, I'd suggest that he is more than capable of playing out there in a pinch. Barring an injury to a contending team, I don't see Frazier getting moved by the deadline and frankly, I think that Hyde likes having his veteran presence. Gunnar mentioned him and McCann the other day as more senior guys who he looks up to in the clubouse. I do believe that means something to the administration. 

All that mentioned, simply to state that I don't think Frazier is going anywhere. I think (in order of likelihood) it goes as follows:

 

O'Hearn (though I would like to see him remain on the roster and platoon with RM. Together they produce a league average 1B)

McKenna is redundant with Hicks, especially if/when Cowser gets the call

Mateo is at this time useful with the glove and on the bases. His struggles with the bat the last two months are no secret

Frazier and his salary would be difficult to move and of the four of these guys, I actually think that his positional flexibility and his quiet leadership make him the least likely to be moved even though I personally think that it makes the a lot of sense

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I'm not advocating for Frazier in the OF to displace any of the current four guys who are regularly logging innings out there. I'm simply pointing out that he offers positional flexibility, which in my opinion is half of the reason that he was signed in the first place. That and his veteranocity or whatever Hyde calls it. 

 

Frazier in the OF is something that does not get discussed a lot as it relates to the roster alignment but given that he's played OF in more than 200 games in the Major Leagues, I'd suggest that he is more than capable of playing out there in a pinch. Barring an injury to a contending team, I don't see Frazier getting moved by the deadline and frankly, I think that Hyde likes having his veteran presence. Gunnar mentioned him and McCann the other day as more senior guys who he looks up to in the clubouse. I do believe that means something to the administration. 

All that mentioned, simply to state that I don't think Frazier is going anywhere. I think (in order of likelihood) it goes as follows:

 

O'Hearn (though I would like to see him remain on the roster and platoon with RM. Together they produce a league average 1B)

McKenna is redundant with Hicks, especially if/when Cowser gets the call

Mateo is at this time useful with the glove and on the bases. His struggles with the bat the last two months are no secret

Frazier and his salary would be difficult to move and of the four of these guys, I actually think that his positional flexibility and his quiet leadership make him the least likely to be moved even though I personally think that it makes the a lot of sense

Ok, so if/when Cowser comes up, there will be 5 OFs with Hays, Mullins, Santander, Hicks, and Cowser. You will just be shifting the overcrowding from INF to OF. If both Cowser and Ortiz arrive, we will either have an overcrowded INF (6 non 1B type infielders for 3 spots though I guess Uriaz can play 1B) or 6 outfielders (if you move Frazier to the outfield). Either way that seems to be creating an unnecessary issue by refusing to trade.

I understand some of the veterans don't have trade value. I guess we could move one of the productive outfielders in Hays or Santander. But a serious option to consider seems like it should be  to trade 1/2 young guys/prospects. I don't believe Henderson, Holliday, or Cowser (and probably Kjerstad for that matter) will be under consideration. 

Most likely somebody's going to have to go because of the roster situation. We have too many position players and not enough good pitching.

[NCRaven]

Since Cowser doesn’t have to be protected from the Rule 5 draft this winter and Kjerstad does, Kjerstad might be the one to get the call this season.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, NCRaven said:

Since Cowser doesn’t have to be protected from the Rule 5 draft this winter and Kjerstad does, Kjerstad might be the one to get the call this season.

If the O's were comfortable moving Santander to 1B. There is room for both. Cowser in the OF and Kjerstad at DH. Or at least rotating them around those spots.

I can't see O'Hearns and Hicks starting/getting regular ABs for the rest of the season. Neither is that good and the two prospects are banging down the door at AAA.

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I'm not advocating for Frazier in the OF to displace any of the current four guys who are regularly logging innings out there. I'm simply pointing out that he offers positional flexibility, which in my opinion is half of the reason that he was signed in the first place. That and his veteranocity or whatever Hyde calls it. 

 

Frazier in the OF is something that does not get discussed a lot as it relates to the roster alignment but given that he's played OF in more than 200 games in the Major Leagues, I'd suggest that he is more than capable of playing out there in a pinch. Barring an injury to a contending team, I don't see Frazier getting moved by the deadline and frankly, I think that Hyde likes having his veteran presence. Gunnar mentioned him and McCann the other day as more senior guys who he looks up to in the clubouse. I do believe that means something to the administration. 

All that mentioned, simply to state that I don't think Frazier is going anywhere. I think (in order of likelihood) it goes as follows:

 

O'Hearn (though I would like to see him remain on the roster and platoon with RM. Together they produce a league average 1B)

McKenna is redundant with Hicks, especially if/when Cowser gets the call

Mateo is at this time useful with the glove and on the bases. His struggles with the bat the last two months are no secret

Frazier and his salary would be difficult to move and of the four of these guys, I actually think that his positional flexibility and his quiet leadership make him the least likely to be moved even though I personally think that it makes the a lot of sense

My best guess at a trade is Frazier packaged with a prospect or two (Someone like Stowers, Norby or Prieto) to get an experienced reliever.  Frazier's salary would offset the salary of the reliever.

With Westburg and Ortiz both ready I think Elias is looking to trade Frazier.   The clubhouse will be fine.

[banks703]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You may ultimately end up being proved to be correct. But that does not appear to be the Orioles plan at the moment. They seem to like crossing training guys (even their top prospects) for multiple positions. Gunnar at SS/3B, Westburg at 2B/3B. It's hard to see a scenario where they don't continue to do that in the future even as Holliday arrives. 

But if they go the route of guys only playing one position, what you suggests could be possible. However, I think they drafted Holliday 1:1 with the belief that he would be a SS. Maybe I am wrong and they don't see him that way?

I think that we are essentially saying the same thing as it relates to prospects. Nothing immediately sticks out to me from the limited film that I've seen of Holliday that tells me that he can't progress through the system and remain at SS. He very well could. I'm only stating that from what I've seen of him thus far and what I saw of Gunnar at the same age, Gunnar was the better defender at the position and has the much stronger arm (Holliday's arm strength is rated 55 to Gunnar's 70). I don't think that a team that values defense up the middle will move the better defender to make room for the weaker defender, even if they are close.

Holliday could mature similarly to Gunnar and in a year or two he could become the better option at SS. That obviously could happen but I think the org's practice of exposing prospects to multiple positions is so that when one guy ultimately becomes the guy at one spot, the others have some experience and a head start on a move to another position. I'll throw it out there now.. I think it's also possible that Holliday moves to CF. Keep that in your pocket for the next couple of years  but don't be shocked if he ends up out there. 

At the Major League level, when you have guys settling into their routine and paying them millions of dollars to produce at the plate, you don't want your stars bouncing around the diamond. There's a reason why Seagar is at SS in Texas and Semien is at 2nd. I actually think Semien is the better SS but that's Texas's problem to manage. They pay those guys to hit. Bringing up the two of them in this post is interesting as I've read many scouting reports comparing both Gunnar and Holliday to Seager though I think that Gunnar is more in line with the comparison given their size and profile. Semien is not a terrible comparison for Holliday though I see some Witt Jr. in his game. 

I think they will ultimately pencil each of them into more of a fixed position but considering guys like Norby, Mayo and Kjerstad all factoring into the IF alignment at some point (Kjerstad manning first could make one of Mayo/JW redundant) there's only so many innings to divide between all of these players. Long term I think that Gunnar's best position is in fact 3B (some have compared him to Chipper Jones though I personally don't see that as much as some others). 

It's obviously an incredible problem to have but I just don't know exactly what the plan is for everyone. Ortiz is the premiere defender of all of the IF prospects, which include Gunnar and JW. I still think there is a place for him on the ML roster. In my opinion, with his defense being on par with Jorge, slotting his greater offensive potential in place of Jorge improves the club right now and in the future. I think Ortiz can be their SS for the next five years and if we consider that they didn't promote JW until he would get regular ABs, perhaps that's the thinking with Joey as well... especially if moving Holliday to CF or 2B is remotely an option for them (again, don't be shocked if it happens!)