Kjerstad and Ortiz

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

Agree with your timeline. Santander this off-season, and then Hays only if the value is right. But I do wonder if you work out a contender/contender trade deadline trade with let’s say the Marlins for Taters and get a pitcher back.

Yes, that is what could happen.  It’s been talked about a lot but contender to contender trades could be a thing this year.

Right now, there are 6 clear sellers..DC, StL, Oak, KC, CWS and Colorado.

Will the Mets and Pads sell?  I could see them selling rentals but that’s about it.

Other teams could enter into the picture but the issue with the definite sellers is that a lot of those teams don’t have anything to trade, especially with Chapman already gone. That means buyers may be trading with buyers if a deal matches up. I still feel if we see that it will be NL to AL trades and not within leagues/divisions.  So yes, Miami is a good example imo.

[deward]

26 minutes ago, foxfield said:

The Orioles will not make moves where the answer to the question: What percentage chance can we get that production from one of the kids?  It's greater than 0%.

It's probably greater than 25%. Might even be greater than 50%. My point is that there is a realistic chance that those guys are the best options in the org as of right now.

[Bahama O's Fan]

1 hour ago, Ripken said:

Leave him where he is.  I'm a big fan but he can't keep wildly chasing pitches like he's been.  He either learns some plate discipline or his career will be over.

And I'd release Mateo today.  He can not hit and we have lots of IFs who can.

I seriously doubt the front office will leave him at Norfolk

[2001OriolesFan]

27 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Stowers is definitely a guy I could see being moved for a reliever.    With him, Prieto, and Norby, there should be a matchup somewhere for bullpen help.

I look for them to be packaged and traded for  one of Cleveland or LA Dodgers top pitching prospects.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

1) Holliday will be the SS

2) You don’t have to trade one of Ortiz or Westburg but you probably have to trade Norby(who you didn’t name) and the Ortiz/Westburg decision comes down to what is their value in trade vs their role with the team. Whatever is higher is the direction they should go.

3) Fabian should stay because you aren’t likely giving Mullins an extension..and really, you shouldn’t give him one.

1. Holliday will be the SS if Ortiz isn't on the team. Westburg is the 2b. I think it's a tossup if Ortiz is here, with Holliday at 2B a real possibility. That's an all around elite infield defense.

2. I did have Norby in there. I agree, he probably has to be traded. I really like the bat, but he's the odd man out unfortunately for him.

3. Fabian should stay because he's the heir apparent to Mullins, but I'd be willing to trade him for relatively short term gain if the value is right. He's where my cutoff is, even though I know that leaves a future hole in CF. Now if in 2 months, he's torn up AA and still playing really good CF, we might be looking at another top 100 guy. 

[Roy Firestone]

1 hour ago, Ripken said:

Leave him where he is.  I'm a big fan but he can't keep wildly chasing pitches like he's been.  He either learns some plate discipline or his career will be over.

And I'd release Mateo today.  He can not hit and we have lots of IFs who can.

I still wonder if a lot of Mountcastle's issues had lately to do with the emergence of vertigo...im not saying ALL of his issues...but if that can be fixed,,,Ryan could be a valuable hitter against left-handers..

[2001OriolesFan]

Kjerstad and Ortiz need to be on the roster by late this year.  I think that what is holding them up is that teams are still trying to figure out what they need to add to their team before the trade deadline is over. 

Hays, Mullens and Santander-  one of them goes before the deadline and another goes before 2024.    Add in a mid level prospect or two from Pietro, Norby, Fabian, Haskins and get another relief pitcher for this year.  Before 2024, trade again for a high level starting pitching propsect.

Mateo and Urias can be traded now or before 2024.   This is more to clear roster spots than to get a return.

Mountcastle has almost no trade value because his vertigo is a mystery and even if he appears to recover, he is suspect and would trade at a big discount.  O'Hearn is (for now) doing quite well and can serve as a stopgap until Kjerstad establishes hisself and we also have Mayo mashing at AA and Wagner at A+in the pipeline.  We will see him back on the MLB roster as depth and he will be eventually pushed out and added to a trade.

 

 

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

Kjerstad and Ortiz need to be on the roster by late this year.  I think that what is holding them up is that teams are still trying to figure out what they need to add to their team before the trade deadline is over. 

Hays, Mullens and Santander-  one of them goes before the deadline and another goes before 2024.    Add in a mid level prospect or two from Pietro, Norby, Fabian, Haskins and get another relief pitcher for this year.  Before 2024, trade again for a high level starting pitching propsect.

Mateo and Urias can be traded now or before 2024.   This is more to clear roster spots than to get a return.

Mountcastle has almost no trade value because his vertigo is a mystery and even if he appears to recover, he is suspect and would trade at a big discount.  O'Hearn is (for now) doing quite well and can serve as a stopgap until Kjerstad establishes hisself and we also have Mayo mashing at AA and Wagner at A+in the pipeline.  We will see him back on the MLB roster as depth and he will be eventually pushed out and added to a trade.

 

 

The odds are better than 0% that many of the prospect names you're listing end up as bad as Mountcastle or worse, who also found himself on the top 100 prospect lists.

[TopGunnar]

I don’t want to trade anybody other than Mateo. With that said, Santander could probably fetch a nice return

[ArtVanDelay]

1 hour ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

I look for them to be packaged and traded for  one of Cleveland or LA Dodgers top pitching prospects.

How often do you see prospect for prospect trades?

[2001OriolesFan]

1 minute ago, ArtVanDelay said:

How often do you see prospect for prospect trades?

Not that often.  Teams usually have a pretty balanced prospect list among the position players and pitchers.  The O's have mostly concentrated on SS and CF players (the best athletes) and ignored pitching.  Drafted pitchers have a high attrituion as they go thu their pro development.  We don't have that much in the pipeline although we did draft a dozen in 2022.   So we are in an unusual situation with a lot of good position players and not much pitching.  That doesn't happen too often, so position player trades for pitching prospects doesn't happen that often either.

If we think a little out of the box, something may work out with some teams who have multiple high (top 100 in MLB) pitching prospects. (mirror image). Some candidate teams would be:

In the top 100 in MLB prospects, there are 8 pitchers with ETA’s later than 2023 and let’s ignore them for now. (#26, #38, #54, #64, #68, #78, #79, #80, & #84. ) The “2023” guys are:

 

#7 Perez Marlins

#12 Painter Philly

#17 Harrison Giants

#18 Bradley Tampa

#19 Williams Indians

#21 Miller Dodgers

#26 Tiederann Jays

#33 Pfaadt ‘Zona

#34 Bibee Indians

#38 Abel Philly

#46 Stone Dodgers

#51 White Texas

#54 Meyer Marlins

#57 Pepiot Dodgers

#61 B.Miller Seattle

#62 Espino Indians

#64 Hence Cards

#67 Priester Pirates

#68 Horton Cubs

#78 Cavalli Nats

#79 Leiter Texas

#82 Hall ORIOLES

#84 Lesko Padres

#92 Libertore Cards

#97 M.Miller Athletics

#99 Abbat Reds

 

The best chance of a trade here, should be with teams that have multiple top 100 pitching candidates. They are the most likely to be able to trade one of them for something they need now. These are:

 

Indians #19, #34, #62

Dodgers #21 #46, #57

Marlins #7 #54,

Philly #12 #38

Texas #51 #79

Cardnals #64, #92

 

 

 

 

[Just Regular]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Honestly, I would be shocked if Santander were an Oriole in 2024.

One interesting thing with Santander and Hays having big years is are they joining Mullins as Qualifying Offer worthy?

Santander's 2024 Arb money will probably pass Gibson 1/10 up to the 12-15 level.     Could he be worth a Martin Perez like 1/22 in 2025?     Of course Elias will have better $$$/WAR scenarios, but the chance in the next 1.5 seasons he might net a draft pick will be part of the evaluation (or trade ask, if they move him).

All of the starting outfielders today I think may have to take some AAV discount if they want a lot of years when they get to FA.    One extra year for 1/22 might not be the worst deal, especially if everybody is BFF's and all that good stuff.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Just Regular

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

One interesting thing with Santander and Hays having big years is are they joining Mullins as Qualifying Offer worthy?

Santander's 2024 Arb money will probably pass Gibson 1/10 up to the 12-15 level.     Could he be worth a Martin Perez like 1/22 in 2025?     Of course Elias will have better $$$/WAR scenarios, but the chance in the next 1.5 seasons he might net a draft pick will be part of the evaluation (or trade ask, if they move him).

All of the starting outfielders today I think may have to take some AAV discount if they want a lot of years when they get to FA.    One extra year for 1/22 might not be the worst deal, especially if everybody is BFF's and all that good stuff.

AS is not a $20M player 

[NCRaven]

My only problem with trading Hays or Santander now is that it would leave this team very left-handed heavy.  Mullins, Cowser and Kjerstad are all lefties, as is Henderson.  Subtract Hays and Santander and Westburg is the only real impact righty unless Mountcastle can return to form.  Coby Mayo could be a long term power righty option, but it will not be at 3B for this team.  He'd have to move to RF (perfect for a big time arm) or 1B (not optimal in that he's a righty fielder and it would be a waste of his biggest defensive asset, the previously mentioned arm).

But, the Dodgers are said to be looking for a right handed bat.  So, if we're going to trade one of our few righties, perhaps we should look there.

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

AS is not a $20M player 

Last offseason Joc Pederson got a QO from a rich team.

Rizzo, Conforto and Abreu were a little below the QO AAV but got 2-3 years.

I don't know if he's there yet, but I can see it in the range of outcomes.    I'm sure Elias would like another one of those good problems to have.