The O’s have a relatively healthy, stable rotation

[Frobby]

While the O’s don’t have an ace, what they do have is a relatively healthy, stable rotation.   Lots of teams don’t.  

Looking around the AL, only one team has four pitchers who have thrown enough innings to qualify — Toronto, with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt and Kikuchi.  Their fifth starter, Alex Manoah, has been banished to the minors.

The Orioles are one of seven AL teams that has three qualified starters (Gibson, Wells and Kremer).   Bradish falls just short but could join the qualified list sometime soon.  The other teams are: MIN (Lopez, Ryan, Gray), CWS (Giolito, Lynn, Cease), KCR (Lyles, Greinke, Singer, but Greinke is on the IL now), TEX (Eovaldi, J. Gray, Perez), HOU (Valdez, Javier, Brown) and SEA (Kirby, Gilbert, Castillo).   Of the remaining teams, Tampa has two qualified starters (but one is McClanahan, currently on the IL); NYY, CLE, DET, LAA, and OAK have one each; and Boston has nobody.  

There are six teams that don’t have five starters who have made as many as ten starts.   BOS, CLE, DET, and HOU have four pitchers who’ve made 10+ starts, while TBR and KCR only have three.

Tons of starters are on the IL, for example: McClanahan (TBR). Cortes (NYY), Houck (BOS), Sale (BOS), Quantrill (CLE), Battenfield (CLE), Wentz (DET), Boyd (DET), Turnbull (DET), Kopech (CWS), Clevinger (CWS), Greinke (KCR),Keller (KCR), deGrom (TEX), Urquidy (HOU), Suarez (LAA), Miller (SEA), Gonzales (SEA) and Kaprielian (OAK).  That’s an incomplete list that, among other things, doesn’t include pitchers who’ve missed the whole season, like Rodón (NYY), who is coming off the IL today.

It’s kind of amazing that, with all that instability, the O’s only rank 11th in starters’ ERA and 9th in IP/start.   But at least we know who’s going to pitch for us.  


 

[interloper]

And despite that, I kind of have no idea what to expect start-to-start, with exception to Wells and Bradish. 

Like, what is going on with Kremer and his 4.78 ERA/4.95 FIP? His strikeouts are up, his walks are (very slightly) down, but his homers and hits are way up. He just shut down the Yankees over 7 innings after allowing a 7 ER in 3 IP his previous start. Who is this guy? I have no idea. 

Kyle Gibson has a 7.71 ERA over his last 5 starts, but his FIP for the year is a very respectable 4.05. 

Their collective health and ability to gut out starts has been overall great, but it's tough to draw any conclusions about some of these guys and what to expect when they take the hill. 

 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by interloper

[Jim'sKid26]

This issue may have a significant impact on Bullpen usage moving forward. It will be interesting to see where they fall on Bullpen innings pitched by the end of the year.

[AnythingO's]

I think what we are seeing is the evolution of how ME-Sig intend to flesh out our pitching staff. They seem to have a way of identifying guys they think they can develop and go after them before they are finished or are hurt. ME went after Wells and Bradish, currently our 2 best SPs. They have passed the more highly regarded guys he inherited, GRod and Hall, as well as Kremer. Kremer is a work in progress still. He went after Povich, Rogers so we will see how fast they develop. Cano is already a success story. Then there are the college arms as power BP pieces. He extended Means before TJ to have him next year. If Grod returns to form he has GRod, Bradish, Wells, Means, Kremer, with Povich and Rogers coming. Maybe not enough yet but getting close. Add someone like ERod now and extend him so that you can control for 3-4 years and you are solid. Keep trading MLB assets for the next Povich, Rogers and the pipeline gets replenished. I think that is the plan.

[Aristotelian]

Knock on wood. There's no such thing as jinxes, right? 

Some might say we baby our starters by taking them out early and keeping them on pitch counts, but health-wise the results have been good the last couple years. 

[Sanfran327]

The (somewhat relative) volatility of our starters is why our success - and therefore our mood - varies each turn through the rotation. We don't have that stopper to look forward to (though Wells is the closest we have, followed by Bradish) to stop the bleeding and get us back in the win column. Gibson has had a rough go recently, and I'm looking forward to him getting a chance to catch his breath over the ASB. Kremer is getting more consistent, but is still able to lay an egg at any time. The 5th spot is a total unknown and we just have to hold our breath that day.

But when we have a good turn through the rotation and they're getting decent run support, they're certainly good enough to win. 

[btdart20]

9 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Rogers

Who dis?  I don't think we have a Rogers.  Maybe you meant someone else?

[deward]

16 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I think what we are seeing is the evolution of how ME-Sig intend to flesh out our pitching staff. They seem to have a way of identifying guys they think they can develop and go after them before they are finished or are hurt. ME went after Wells and Bradish, currently our 2 best SPs. They have passed the more highly regarded guys he inherited, GRod and Hall, as well as Kremer. Kremer is a work in progress still. He went after Povich, Rogers so we will see how fast they develop. Cano is already a success story. Then there are the college arms as power BP pieces. He extended Means before TJ to have him next year. If Grod returns to form he has GRod, Bradish, Wells, Means, Kremer, with Povich and Rogers coming. Maybe not enough yet but getting close. Add someone like ERod now and extend him so that you can control for 3-4 years and you are solid. Keep trading MLB assets for the next Povich, Rogers and the pipeline gets replenished. I think that is the plan.

I'm probably forgetting about something, but who is Rogers?

[interloper]

1 minute ago, deward said:

I'm probably forgetting about something, but who is Rogers?

I assume he means Seth Johnson. 

[btdart20]

Health is a skill set.  Especially for a position in which we have a thread "They all break" earmarked for bumping.  Maybe they're tapping into the negative to the 'max velo' push?  

I'm over-simplifying here but...  If 100 guys naturally (for lack of a better word) throw 91-92, but the train in a way to consistently throw 93-94, what's the breaking rate?  

If a control group of 100 guys (or guys from 20 years ago) naturally throw 91-92, but trains to just hit their spots better and is content with the velo, what's the breaking rate?

Add that into the SigBot for your FA bidding and trade targets.  

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I assume he means Seth Johnson. 

Maybe, but he doesn't fit the context of health since we traded for him as he was getting TJ surgery.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I assume he means Seth Johnson. 

And/or Chayce McDermott.

[AnythingO's]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I assume he means Seth Johnson. 

Correct, I meant Seth Johnson but was trying to work a Treavor Rogers into a trade scenario and confused myself.

[Sports Guy]

One of the keys to success the last 1.5 years has been the overall health of the team.

I figured that would be something to hold them back this year but the health has remained very good for the most part.  Things may better if Tate and Givens were healthy but overall, outside of the Mullins injury, its been pretty good.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

One of the keys to success the last 1.5 years has been the overall health of the team.

I figured that would be something to hold them back this year but the health has remained very good for the most part.  Things may better if Tate and Givens were healthy but overall, outside of the Mullins injury, its been pretty good.

But what about the McCann sprained ankle?