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What does a trade for a TOR arm look like?


deward

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Given the debate over which players the O's should consider giving up in exchange for a top starting pitcher, I thought it might instructive to take a look at what those types of pitchers have gone for in recent trades. I'm only looking at trades involving packages of prospects in this post, so I'll be excluding examples like the Yankees and Cardinals swapping Montgomery for Bader last year. I'm using MLB Pipeline for top 100 rankings.

Aug 1 2022

Yankees get Frankie Montas (3.8 WAR in 2021, finished 6th in CY voting, put up 3.18 ERA in 19 starts in 2022 prior to the trade) and Lou Trivino (a RP)

A's get JP Sears (NYY's 25th best prospect per Fangraphs), Ken Waldichuk (15th best per Fangraphs), Luis Medina (not ranked), and Cooper Bowman (not ranked, NYY 4th round pick in 2021); none of these guys were in the top 100

Montas cost the Yanks basically nothing, but he was also terrible for them down the stretch last year, and both he and Trivino will miss all of 2023 due to injuries

 

Jul 29 2022

Mariners get Luis Castillo (5.2 WAR in 2019, 4.2 WAR in 2021, was pitching very well for CIN in 2022)

Reds get Noelvi Marte (#11 overall prospect, #2 on Seattle's list), Levi Stoudt (Seattle's #14 prospect per FG), Edwin Arroyo (Seattle's #7 per FG), Andrew Moore (NR)

This is the type of deal a lot of people are thinking of, where the M's acquired a young(ish) ace with a year of control remaining in exchange for one of the best prospects in baseball. The equivalent would be the O's giving up Cowser plus some fillers. Worth noting that the M's probably only do this with the confidence of being able to extend Castillo (which they did, for 5 yr/$108M).  

 

Mar 13 2022

Twins get Sonny Gray (6.2 WAR in 2019, but down to 3.1 WAR in 2021; pitches like an ace a lot of the time, but not much of an innings eater) and Francis Peguero (ML RP)

Reds get Chase Petty (2021 1st round pick)

A buy-low example, with Gray coming off something of a down year. Petty was a late 1st round pick, a high school pitcher. He hasn't made any top 100 lists, so it's hard to figure out exactly what a good comp would be from the O's system. Zach Showalter? 

 

Jul 30 2021

Blue Jays get Jose Berrios (ended up 9th in Cy voting that year)

Twins get Austin Martin (22nd overall prospect) and Simeon Woods-Richardson (87th overall prospect)

Similar to the Castillo deal, where a young TOR arm with a year of control remaining commanded a premium price, along with a big extension for his new club. The Twins got fleeced here, as both prospects have been busts.

 

I could go further back, but this post is already long enough. What I'm seeing is that the real premium prospects only tend to come into play in exchange for younger TOR guys that the receiving team feels good about being able to extend for a few years (or mega-deals like the Dodgers getting both Scherzer and Trea Turner). I can't see the O's committing that kind of long-term money to a pitcher, based on anything we've seen so far, which makes it unlikely to me that they'll swing that sort of deal. I think something like the Gray deal is probably what they'll aim for, trying to buy low on someone they think they can get better results from.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gioloto makes the most sense.

For this year, sure, but he probably walks at the end of the year. I was thinking more of moves that help longer-term. They have enough ammo to do that and rent someone for this stretch run.

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I don’t know what youngish/prime ace is out there to be traded for? Bieber maybe? Maybe Cease? Maybe Keller?

I don’t see the Marlins being will to part with Luzardo or Alcantara as they are in the thick of a wildcard chase.

That leaves Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Snell, Giolito, and Montgomery as the rental not true ace kind of guys who will most probably be available.

I guess you could add Hendricks to this list. Am I a missing anyone else who could help? Maybe Cobb? But I don’t think SF see/will be sellers. No, I don’t think Lance Lynn can/will help us.

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42 minutes ago, deward said:

For this year, sure, but he probably walks at the end of the year. I was thinking more of moves that help longer-term. They have enough ammo to do that and rent someone for this stretch run.

 Right now, I’m not sure you need to trade for a long term option.

Dont get me wrong, if the right guy is there im good with it but right now, he’s not there. We have plenty to trade now and keep our best prospects and we can trade for someone in the offseason or sign one of the many FAs And not trade our best prospects.

We need to alleviate some depth before it loses value but we don’t have to trade our best guys for a minor upgrade over other pitchers for less than half a season.

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23 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t know what youngish/prime ace is out there to be traded for? Bieber maybe? Maybe Cease? Maybe Keller?

I don’t see the Marlins being will to part with Luzardo or Alcantara as they are in the thick of a wildcard chase.

That leaves Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Snell, Giolito, and Montgomery as the rental not true ace kind of guys who will most probably be available.

I guess you could add Hendricks to this list. Am I a missing anyone else who could help? Maybe Cobb? But I don’t think SF see/will be sellers. No, I don’t think Lance Lynn can/will help us.

Snell and Stroman probably don’t get dealt.

It’s Montgomery, ERod or Gioloto.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Snell and Stroman probably don’t get dealt.

It’s Montgomery, ERod or Gioloto.

Why not Stroman? They are 7 back of the wild card with five teams ahead of them. He has a player option which he should decline. I see no reason to keep him. 

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Jordan Montgomery seems like the best option as a rental as he wouldn’t cost as much as someone like Stroman but the results are just as good.  He doesn’t strike out guys like the others but he knows how to pitch and doesn’t give up a ton of contact.  It also gives us a lefty and that should be beneficial with the wall in left.  

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Good thread. 

As far as options, I'm not trading for Gioloto. Gio is not a top of the rotation guy. He does nothing to improve from pur current pitching staff. It's like asking Voth to start just because. Does nothing for us to address the problem. We have 4 guys who have started for us with a ERA over 4.  Gio has an ERA over 4. 

 

I would mich rather have Montgomery than GIO because he has actually pwrformed better and is left handed.

I could probably make a list ranked with pitchers I would prefer targeting. 

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Great analysis. The problem we are running into with the plan to trade for a TOR isn’t necessarily the price, it’s that there aren’t any available. There’s no guarantee there will be any available in the offseason either. However, there is a pretty strong FA SP class. Trade for a rental SP for a playoff run this year and then go for a FA. Bonus is that you have a few months with a guy like Giolito or Montgomery to see if you want to tinker with their stuff before deciding whether to pursue them as a FA. 

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2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Why not Stroman? They are 7 back of the wild card with five teams ahead of them. He has a player option which he should decline. I see no reason to keep him. 

The talk is they don’t want to sell.  Things could change though.

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3 hours ago, bpilktree said:

Jordan Montgomery seems like the best option as a rental as he wouldn’t cost as much as someone like Stroman but the results are just as good.  He doesn’t strike out guys like the others but he knows how to pitch and doesn’t give up a ton of contact.  It also gives us a lefty and that should be beneficial with the wall in left.  

How much more is Stroman going to cost? If he’s the better option I don’t see the harm in pursuing the better player.

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