Trade Deadline Prediction Time

[owknows]

What the Orioles will acquire at the trade deadline:

The disappointment and ire of fans who can't conceive of winning baseball without spending like drunken sailors.

What the Orioles will acquire at the end of the season.

A penant.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, dzorange said:

I agree. I also don't think they would have sent down Wells so quickly.

If not more substantial, perhaps more complex. Lorenzen makes sense.

I would not be surprised if they try to land some sort of an OF.

Btw, I said they would add a reliever. It’s possible that the reliever they add is Tyler Wells…along with other internal options that could become viable.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

It's always fun being on conflicting teams boards because you see both perspectives. The people over on Cardstalk seem to think Carlson+Flaherty lands one of Mayo or Kjerstad, while over here you have the Orioles getting Carlson for not much

Lol. Those cards fans are morons if they think that.

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, owknows said:

What the Orioles will acquire at the trade deadline:

The disappointment and ire of fans who can't conceive of winning baseball without spending like drunken sailors.

What the Orioles will acquire at the end of the season.

A penant.

All due respect, the Orioles are 1.5 games in front with 2 months to go and they currently have 4 starting pitchers. Their best healthy CFer is Ryan McKenna.  

A penant is possible, but it's no sure thing. Verlander stuff aside, I think most of us just want a steady 5th SP and a reliever upgrade. 

Edited July 31, 2023 by interloper

[owknows]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

All due respect, the Orioles are 1.5 games in front with 2 months to go and they currently have 4 starting pitchers. Their best healthy CFer is Ryan McKenna.  

A penant is possible, but it's no sure thing. Verlander stuff aside, I think most of us just want a steady 5th SP and a reliever upgrade. 

A penant is possible but it's no sure thing.

This remains true, even if they take on salary to add a mid-tier starting pitcher.

McKenna's actually better than the options they're looking at in trade.

As for SP I see no reason they can't go with Gibson, Grod, Kremer, Bradish, Irvin  (and a shuttle from Norfolk) if they have to.

With Wells in the pen.

I will remind you (with all due respect) that they have the second best record in baseball already.

[interloper]

Just now, owknows said:

A penant is possible but it's no sure thing.

This remains true, even if they take on salary to add a mid-tier starting pitcher.

McKenna's actually better than the options they're looking at in trade.

As for SP I see no reason they can't go with Gibson, Grod, Kremer, Bradish, Irvin  (and a shuttle from Norfolk) if they have to.

With Wells in the pen.

I will remind you (with all due respect) that they have the second best record in baseball already.

Again, there are two months to go. It would be negligent to not build in some rotation insurance when Wells has already succumbed to fatigue and Kremer and Bradish are about to hit their career highs in innings. Grayson is fun but untested. Irvin couldn't even successfully complete his bullpen outing the other day. 

Everything changes in the playoffs - at the very least you need another SP just to get you there. I like our guys, and I'm not even saying we need an ace acquisition. But they need somebody for sure. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

It's always fun being on conflicting teams boards because you see both perspectives. The people over on Cardstalk seem to think Carlson+Flaherty lands one of Mayo or Kjerstad, while over here you have the Orioles getting Carlson for not much

The bias where Clubs (more so their fans) overvalue what they have is some of why you need a SigBot for the computations.

After an almost 5-year #RisingTide PR campaign, I'd predict some may be shocked if anything big actually gets done.

Now knowing you are a Cubs guy, what's the subtext saying Bellinger not Stroman?     Do you think Marcus might actually go anywhere?

[Tryptamine]

35 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The bias where Clubs (more so their fans) overvalue what they have is some of why you need a SigBot for the computations.

After an almost 5-year #RisingTide PR campaign, I'd predict some may be shocked if anything big actually gets done.

Now knowing you are a Cubs guy, what's the subtext saying Bellinger not Stroman?     Do you think Marcus might actually go anywhere?

Bellinger isn't going anywhere even if they sell. They love him and it seems they're willing to accept a qualifying offer pick for him. There was rumors of potentially trading Stroman even if they were buyers and using the assets to add to this year's team, but that seems extremely hard. If they win tonight, I'd put a Stroman deal at sub 10%, if they lose, it's 50/50. If they're selling, the Os would should have heavy interest in both Mark Leiter Jr and Julian Merryweather. I'd be quite surprised if Adbert Alzolay was available. 

[Dale]

25 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Bellinger isn't going anywhere even if they sell. They love him and it seems they're willing to accept a qualifying offer pick for him. There was rumors of potentially trading Stroman even if they were buyers and using the assets to add to this year's team, but that seems extremely hard. If they win tonight, I'd put a Stroman deal at sub 10%, if they lose, it's 50/50. If they're selling, the Os would should have heavy interest in both Mark Leiter Jr and Julian Merryweather. I'd be quite surprised if Adbert Alzolay was available. 

It's almost a Goldilocks scenario for Stroman tonight, if he pitches too well the Cubs will be reluctant to sell him  and if he pitches too poorly no-one will give what the Cubs want for him (he's had a few poor to so-so outings in a row).   Perhaps, it doesn't make sense to put so much weight into one performance but the trade deadline is what it is .... Teasing a bit ... if the sell chances fluctuate 40+% based on one game you worry about putting Tryptamine in charge of the Cubs!

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, Dale said:

It's almost a Goldilocks scenario for Stroman tonight, if he pitches too well the Cubs will be reluctant to sell him  and if he pitches too poorly no-one will give what the Cubs want for him (he's had a few poor to so-so outings in a row).   Perhaps, it doesn't make sense to put so much weight into one performance but the trade deadline is what it is .... Teasing a bit ... if the sell chances fluctuate 40+% based on one game you worry about putting Tryptamine in charge of the Cubs!

It's the difference between being 3 and 5 games back in the division because they're playing the division leaders tonight in a 4 game series.

[Malike]

I hope they stay away from Stroman and look somewhere else.

[wildcard]

My guess is something like:  Norby and Stowers to the Tigers for Lorenzen and two minor leaguers.

[Yardball85]

2 hours ago, owknows said:

What the Orioles will acquire at the trade deadline:

The disappointment and ire of fans who can't conceive of winning baseball without spending like drunken sailors.

What the Orioles will acquire at the end of the season.

A penant.

LOL.  Making a trade for a starting pitcher from a ton of depth of position player prospects is spending like drunken sailors?

[Yardball85]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Again, there are two months to go. It would be negligent to not build in some rotation insurance when Wells has already succumbed to fatigue and Kremer and Bradish are about to hit their career highs in innings. Grayson is fun but untested. Irvin couldn't even successfully complete his bullpen outing the other day. 

Everything changes in the playoffs - at the very least you need another SP just to get you there. I like our guys, and I'm not even saying we need an ace acquisition. But they need somebody for sure. 

Interloper - that poster hates anything that even suggests the Orioles increasing their payroll by one penny.  Even if it is a smart trade to acquire a starter than could help a team that badly needs pitching help. 

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Interloper - that poster hates anything that even suggests the Orioles increasing their payroll by one penny.  Even if it is a smart trade to acquire a starter than could help a team that badly needs pitching help. 

Huh? Not sure where you are getting that. I've never been against adding to the payroll.