The starters’ innings thread

[wildcard]

Wells and Means will be able to eat some of the innings in Sept.  Saving some of GRod's innings  for the playoffs.

[LookinUp]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Wells and Means will be able to eat some of the innings in Sept.  Saving some of GRod's innings  for the playoffs.

I expect next to nothing out of Means. Not that I'm not hoping that he's back and helpful, but Means was basically at 95% ceiling when he was healthy, and he had to be there to be effective.

That's a lot to ask after being out for 14 months. Will he have enough velo (was borderline before)? Will he have command? Will he have the great change up? He needs all of that to be better than most of our guys now.

I expect/hope he will be about as good as Irvin, but not likely better than him.

 

Edited August 15, 2023 by LookinUp

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I expect next to nothing out of Means. Not that I'm not hoping that he's back and helpful, but Means was basically at 95% ceiling when he was healthy, and he had to be there to be effective.

That's a lot to ask after being out for 14 months. Will he have enough velo (was borderline before)? Will he have command? Will he have the great change up? He needs all of that to be better than most of our guys now.

I expect/hope he will be about as good as Irvin, but not likely better than him.

 

You are really selling Means short.

It’s fair to wonder where he is right now and what he can give us this season but your post casts doubt on how good he was before. 

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You are really selling Means short.

It’s fair to wonder where he is right now and what he can give us this season but your post casts doubt on how good he was before. 

Yes, because he snuck a couple extra mph of velo, pitched great with it for a while, and then had TJ surgery.

In many eyes, he was a non-prospect like a year before coming on strong. That velo spike was key. He was viewed as a pitchability guy before that. 

I just think his pure arm talent needs to be close to maxed out to be effective. And he needs to have command. This isn't Hall or Rodriguez. 

Anyway, I'm tempering expectations on Means. I'd love to be proven wrong. It's definitely possible. He was really good for a stretch there. It would be wonderful if he comes back like that. I just think it's really hard to do.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Yes, because he snuck a couple extra mph of velo, pitched great with it for a while, and then had TJ surgery.

In many eyes, he was a non-prospect like a year before coming on strong. That velo spike was key. He was viewed as a pitchability guy before that. 

I just think his pure arm talent needs to be close to maxed out to be effective. And he needs to have command. This isn't Hall or Rodriguez. 

Anyway, I'm tempering expectations on Means. I'd love to be proven wrong. It's definitely possible. He was really good for a stretch there. It would be wonderful if he comes back like that. I just think it's really hard to do.

A stretch? He was worth over 6 WAR prior to the injury and that was with a shortened 2020 and 2022 season. Basically was a 3 WAR pitcher before he got hurt and he didn’t get to the pitch yet, at least not much, with the new wall and that should benefit him a lot since he was prone to the homer.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

A stretch? He was worth over 6 WAR prior to the injury and that was with a shortened 2020 and 2022 season. Basically was a 3 WAR pitcher before he got hurt and he didn’t get to the pitch yet, at least not much, with the new wall and that should benefit him a lot since he was prone to the homer.

I agree the new wall should be a big help. So should overall improved defense behind him.

And he was really good for sure. At or near his ceiling. All I'm saying is I don't think he has a ton of margin for error, and coming off of a long lay off, I think it'll be hard to get back there.

But I hope you're more right than me, for sure. He's not a baby anymore. Age and experience are on his side in that regard. Maybe it's like riding a bike for him. He certainly wouldn't be the first pro to come back and be really good.

[Matt Bennett]

29 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I agree the new wall should be a big help. So should overall improved defense behind him.

And he was really good for sure. At or near his ceiling. All I'm saying is I don't think he has a ton of margin for error, and coming off of a long lay off, I think it'll be hard to get back there.

But I hope you're more right than me, for sure. He's not a baby anymore. Age and experience are on his side in that regard. Maybe it's like riding a bike for him. He certainly wouldn't be the first pro to come back and be really good.

Career 121 ERA+. He can regress, as many pitchers do coming off TJ, and still be useful. He’s a left handed Tyler Wells with better command. And you can throw his old prospect rankings out the door. Dude can pitch 

[Sports Guy]

36 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I agree the new wall should be a big help. So should overall improved defense behind him.

And he was really good for sure. At or near his ceiling. All I'm saying is I don't think he has a ton of margin for error, and coming off of a long lay off, I think it'll be hard to get back there.

But I hope you're more right than me, for sure. He's not a baby anymore. Age and experience are on his side in that regard. Maybe it's like riding a bike for him. He certainly wouldn't be the first pro to come back and be really good.

I mean, you never know how a guy bounces back from surgery. Most are successful but not everyone and as I said, it’s fair to question what he will give us this year.

My pushback is acting like he wasn’t much before the injury. He was a very good pitcher playing on an awful team in a tough division and great homer park. 
 

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

After watching GRod last night and Bradish all year, finding a way to preserve both of them through October will determine how far this team can go this year. Those two guys look locked in as a legit long-term top 2 of the O's starting rotation, and if they’re pitching this well through September, they should open any playoff series the O’s reach.

If the O's think it will benefit them, whatever can be done to maintain their current effectiveness should be explored. That could be through managing their workload with a 6-man rotation, or maybe scaling back their roles to 3-5 IP openers for September with Wells/Means coming in after, then ramping back up towards the end of September for what will hopefully be 3-6 playoff starts for both of them.

Assuming a 6 man rotation the rest of the way, both could see 7 additional starts. If they average 5 IP for those remaining regular season starts, and 6 IP for 5 playoff starts, that’d be 65 IP from this point forward. That would put Bradish at 191.2 IP, and GRod at 187.1 IP. Is that reasonable to accumulate in pursuit of a World Series? As long as they feel healthy and aren’t showing signs of fatigue (a big if) I sure hope so.

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A stretch? He was worth over 6 WAR prior to the injury and that was with a shortened 2020 and 2022 season. Basically was a 3 WAR pitcher before he got hurt and he didn’t get to the pitch yet, at least not much, with the new wall and that should benefit him a lot since he was prone to the homer.

To me, the jury’s out on Means.  Some guys come back from TJ surgery just as effective as they were before, some don’t.  I have no idea which category Means will fall in.  I certainly wouldn’t build all my plans around the premise that he’ll return to his ore-TJ levels.  But, hopefully we’ll see enough of him in 2023 to get some idea of what we’ll see from him next year.   

[Just Regular]

Its funny how funneling talent for a playoff push you basically have guys at way different points in their career like Means and Hall, and even maybe McDermott/Povich, trying out for 12 precious roster spots.

Nothing is promised Means except this next batch of Minors starts, and he'll need to show something for September innings.     The standards of April Cole Irvin and July Tyler Wells will apply to him too if the pitch data isn't strong enough.

[btdart20]

Means is in Missouri and needs to Show Me first.  The competitive upside is there and above Gibson level.  The health/recovery is in question.  I trust his command and change-up vs. RHH (especially in OPACY) even if he loses a tick.  But he needs to show it.  

He’s another dice roll for quality innings.  Aka a hedge for someone else’s regression.

[btdart20]

My unprofessional unsolicited thoughts:

Kremer and Bradish are free range now.  Just a matter of general monitoring.

Wells is in the “dead arm”/regain strength mold.  He put in a lot of work this past offseason to build up strength so he can be a long lasting SP.  I think he can recover.  Another question is team need.

Grayson in the tap the brakes but get consistent work zone.  I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned for future years though… but I also don’t think we should shut him down only to start him back up for the playoffs.  That just feels like poor arm maintenance/management.

[glenn__davis]

16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

My unprofessional unsolicited thoughts:

Kremer and Bradish are free range now.  Just a matter of general monitoring.

Wells is in the “dead arm”/regain strength mold.  He put in a lot of work this past offseason to build up strength so he can be a long lasting SP.  I think he can recover.  Another question is team need.

Grayson in the tap the brakes but get consistent work zone.  I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned for future years though… but I also don’t think we should shut him down only to start him back up for the playoffs.  That just feels like poor arm maintenance/management.

Agreed.

One thing I'll saying regarding Grayson - I am certain that the Orioles have all kinds of data that they're looking at regarding his usage going forward.  Not just his performance but historical data, patterns, past injuries, etc..  

[sportsfan8703]

How much is this really a thing?  The whole league had to do this after the Covid shortened season.  I think we'll be cautious, but I don't think you'll see 3 IP starts.  We may see skipped starts, or even a 7 man rotation, but we won't see 3 IP starts.