Should we offer extensions to any of our starting pitchers, either now or in the offseason?

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Have a guy that projects to pitch 17 starts at a 3.20 ERA  is valuable.    I would not just throw that away.

No one is throwing that away but relying on that just isn’t smart. The guy just breaks down. Either he is injured or gets tired. He has done it every year.

It’s not a question of “can he be good”. It’s a question of durability and reliability.

Fans have to change their way of looking at things. We need to be going for the throat now. The goal is no longer to have a good system, win 85 games and hope to make the playoffs.

Going forward the goal is to win World Series titles and the AL is absolutely loaded and our division in particular is very tough and will get tougher long term than it is this year.

So, we need to prepare for that and upgrading the pitching in a major way is how that needs to happen.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There should be improvement in 2024 starting staff without doing mean.

Getting 32 starts out of GRod as the O's ace will be a huge improvement.   Bradish being comfortable as the #2 from the start of the season will be an improvement.

Getting a full year from Means is like making a trade for an experience starter.

And let's see what McDermott does the rest of the season.  He could be a starter that Elias has to find room for on the O's 2024 starting staff.   I just need to see more the rest of this season.

I don't see any of that as sit on their hands.   There is significant improvement there.

Relying on guys you already have and hoping they improve is the very definition of sitting on your hands.  It may be the right thing to do, but that’s exactly what sitting on your hands means.  

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No one is throwing that away but relying on that just isn’t smart. The guy just breaks down. Either he is injured or gets tired. He has done it every year.

It’s not a question of “can he be good”. It’s a question of durability and reliability.

Fans have to change their way of looking at things. We need to be going for the throat now. The goal is no longer to have a good system, win 85 games and hope to make the playoffs.

Going forward the goal is to win World Series titles and the AL is absolutely loaded and our division in particular is very tough and will get tougher long term than it is this year.

So, we need to prepare for that and upgrading the pitching in a major way is how that needs to happen.

I expect this will be the drum you are beat all through the off season right up to Opening Day.   However, the O's are a development organization under Elias.    He has developed GRod, Bradish, Wells and Kremer.    He will probably develop McDermott if he shows he is ready to take the next step.

Elias allows expensive, long term contract.  I don't expect that to change.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Relying on guys you already have and hoping they improve is the very definition of sitting on your hands.  It may be the right thing to do, but that’s exactly what sitting on your hands means.  

I don't agree.   Setting on your hands is when improvement is needed but no moves are made.    But what  we see Elias do is develop players  instead of going for expensive FAs.  Plugging holes with one year contracts.   And he has made it work to the tune of a possible 100 win season.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I expect this will be the drum you are beat all through the off season right up to Opening Day.   However, the O's are a development organization under Elias.    He has developed GRod, Bradish, Wells and Kremer.    He will probably develop McDermott if he shows he is ready to take the next step.

Elias allows expensive, long term contract.  I don't expect that to change.

I’m not asking for a long term deal..I have said 4 max but really 3 years or less. 
 

We know, unless you think Elias lied, that the Os were prepared to go multiple years with starters in the offseason. We don’t know money of course but presumably if he was good to do it going into 2023, the same will be said for 2024.

Also, this isn’t just about signings. It’s about trades too. The Os have to make trades. They could trade for 2 starters. They have vets and young players to trade and both need to happen. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

I don't agree.   Setting on your hands is when improvement is needed but no moves are made.    

Which is what you are advocating for.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which is what you are advocating for.

Elias is making moves through development.  Moves the O's are making in 2024:

GRod from the O's 5th starter to their ace #1 starter.

Bradish from a developing starter to an established #2.

Means from the 60 day IL to an experience #3 starter.

Mc Dermott from a minor leaguer to a developing major league starter/long man.

Irvin from a questionable starter to a reliable swingman.

Kremer and Wells still as valuable starters.

That's not sitting on their hands.   Its a development organization getting they starters to mature  and be successful.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Elias is making moves through development.  Moves the O's are making in 2024:

GRod from the O's 5th starter to their ace #1 starter.

Bradish from a developing starter to an established #2.

Means from the 60 day IL to an experience #3 starter.

Mc Dermott from a minor leaguer to a developing major league starter/long man.

Irvin from a questionable starter to a reliable swingman.

Kremer and Wells still as valuable starters.

That's not sitting on their hands.   Its a development organization getting they starters to mature  and be successful.

No, that’s sitting on their hands. Making moves through development isn’t a thing. It’s just something you are making up.

It is him relying on what they have and not going outside the org to make upgrades.

I mean, he didn’t do that in 2023 and he’s not going to do it in 2024.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Have a guy that projects to pitch 17 starts at a 3.20 ERA  is valuable.    I would not just throw that away.

No one's saying to throw it away.  But if he can only provide 17 starts a year, that's a little more than half of what a typical starter should be able to do.

He will provide value no matter where he is.  All I was saying is that I don't understand is how that someone so big and strong looking has issues with getting exhausted by July.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

No one's saying to throw it away.  But if he can only provide 17 starts a year, that's a little more than half of what a typical starter should be able to do.

He will provide value no matter where he is.  All I was saying is that I don't understand is how that someone so big and strong looking has issues with getting exhausted by July.

Yes.  I agree.  I can't explain why he is good in the first half and poor in the 2nd half but that is what has happened in both of the last two years.

Getting successful starter is not easy.   That is why I value the 17 starts at 3.20 ERA.   So for 2024 I would pencil him in as a starter for the 1st half and build the starting pitching staff to accommodate  that amount of starts.

[Just Regular]

Wells is the real swing guy.    He wants to be Aaron Harang, and that mentality is a credit to him.

The Sigbot is stepping through the process of educating all pitchers except Cy caliber talents that Five and Dive is a feature, not a bug.

Its true this last stretch of the season, we need more 6th innings from our SP because half our bullpen is soft.

Fortifying the entire bullpen is the job for 2024.    I hope Wells offseason instructions go like "prepare to be a starter" but understand your leash will be shorter as we try and get you closer to 150 innings at a slower pace.

The need of the 2022 and 2023 Orioles to employ Lyles/Gibson, and flog 1st half Wells is just the end game of the intentional de-prioritization of pitching in the Talent Accumulation phase.

Erik Bedard really was ahead of his time.

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

Gibson isn’t good enough for the 2024 Orioles rotation, as Lyles wasn’t good enough for the 2023 rotation. 

I agree with this in principle, but practically speaking if Elias feels a need to buy a 175 ip fodder type for 2024, I believe Gibson would probably enjoy re-upping, and I'll believe Elias makes a multi-year commitment to this kind of pitcher when I see it, effectively cutting himself off even from the Manaea-Stripling type guy.

Dean Kremer for me is the heir to the Lyles-Gibson seat as he's making progress this year proving himself trustworthy for six months.

[btdart20]

Grayson and Bradish are locks for the foreseeable future.  The rest still have to prove something.

Means is the third "lock" assuming his performance rebounds to nearly/equal pre-TJ form.  As much as I personally like Means, he feels like he's a square peg for a round hole.  I'd rather not have him as our #3 with the rebound concerns.  Fine for a #4-5, but we've got a few of those options too.  But the SigBot is all about maximizing value, so a sell-low is mathed out of the equation.

 

The rest of the rotation is built on some assumptions:

1. I still have a hard time believing Elias will go beyond a 2-year deal without having some type of option involved.  Who is brought in will be governed by the next assumption.

2. I also have a hard time believing Elias will trade top tier prospects.  

3. Elias is at least as (maybe more) concerned about raising the floor as he is about the ceiling.  Are the three guys above and some combo of our other guys/immediate pipeline enough of a floor?

 

 

Wells was one of the better SPs (not just on the team, but in the league) for the first half of the season.  I'd like to say he'd be a great #3, but the fly in the ointment is the durability.  And if he's not available in the rotation, he doesn't help us compete in the playoffs.  Can some type of workload management (pairing with McD/Hall/Po to give them a shot) give him some bullets for the playoffs?  Even still, Wells has value to this team somehow.  Whether in the rotation, BP, or as part of a trade for an upgrade.  

Kremer seems to be trucking along IP-wise but the top side of Wells isn't there.  Maybe @Just Regular speaks SigBot and Kremer is the new Gibson...?  The IP floor is higher for Kremer, but the results per IP is lower compared to Wells.  

How do Elias and the marketplace rank these guys from a 2025+ perspective:  Wells, Kremer, McDermott, Hall, Povich, Johnson?  I have to think McDermott, Hall, and Povich will get some MLB time at some point in 2024.  Especially if we think they are any type of answer beyond 2024.  Elias won't count on them to provide the floor.  But can some combo of these guys push the rotation's ceiling for us in 2024?  With McDermott's SSS AAA pacing what Grayson posted, maybe so.  To be continued...

[survivedc]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm having a hard time reconciling why someone who's 6'8" and 265 lbs has a hard time making it through an MLB season without tiring.

True, he's never been asked to throw this many innings before, except back in 2018.  But if I'm the Orioles I'm putting him on a strict conditioning plan for this offseason so he can throw more innings next year.  I don't see why he can't be someone that can give 180+ innings.  

BTW, I wouldn't be banking on him for a rotation spot either due to his conditioning issues.  Maybe there's nothing that can be done to get him to throw more innings, maybe this is just who he really is.

I guess size to velocity isn’t 1:1 but I’ve always wondered why he can’t throw the ball faster. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't agree.   Setting on your hands is when improvement is needed but no moves are made.    But what  we see Elias do is develop players  instead of going for expensive FAs.  Plugging holes with one year contracts.   And he has made it work to the tune of a possible 100 win season.

I agree what he’s done has been working.  So, we’re just arguing semantics, not what is the right strategy.  

I do feel that pitching remains our weakest link, and needs to improve.  How much we need outside help depends a bit on what you think the arc of Rodriguez and Bradish is.  If you think one is likely to be a legit no. 1 next year and the other a legit no. 2, then maybe  you don’t break the bank to acquire one.  If you’re more skittish about their prospects, or just don’t want to risk being wrong, then maybe you do go all in to get a true TOR guy.

I want to see how the rest of 2023 goes before thinking too hard about this.  But I’ll say this: I’m super-impressed with how fast Rodriguez is coming on now, and Bradish is having an excellent season.  There are some reasons for optimism with respect to both.