Chicago White Sox Series

[Sports Guy]

Just now, dystopia said:

It’s not smart to trade top flight prospects for projects. I’m surprised you of all people would suggest doing that. 

Well luckily I’m not suggesting we do that, so all is good.

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Kopech is about the level of pitcher that you are going to get for “surplus position players with no future on our major league roster”

I mean we have a surplus of position player prospects and not all of them are going to get a chance here. That doesn’t mean they’re not talented or don’t have a future with another team — I didn’t say that. Kopech is currently not good and we shouldn’t let ourselves believe it’s worth trading someone like Norby for him. 

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well luckily I’m not suggesting we do that, so all is good.

Okay I see you edited your post to say that you wouldn’t give up Norby for him, which is good. 
 

Stowers though… still feel we can get someone better than Kopech for him. He would be a top 5 prospect in most organizations, maybe top 3. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Okay I see you edited your post to say that you wouldn’t give up Norby for him, which is good. 
 

Stowers though… still feel we can get someone better than Kopech for him. He would be a top 5 prospect in most organizations, maybe top 3. 

Well I think you are really overrating these guys.  Even if you don’t like Kopech or don’t want to see his upside, you are definitely overrating Norby and Stowers.

Don’t get me wrong, they are both good prospects but let’s not fool ourselves that they are high level guys or anything  like that.  They were never in the the class of prospect as what Kopech was back in the day.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with trading a guy outside of your top 10 for a guy like this.  Now, the caveat to this is simply if Elias and his staff like Kopech and feel there is something to work with there. If they do, trading either of those guys shouldn’t be something any of us question.  

They may also see Kopech as a head case or uncoachable or someone who has to be completely broken down and built back up and at the price to acquire him and pay him, it’s not worth it and if that’s the case, so be it.  

But if they view him as someone who just needs some tweaks here and there and just needs to get the hell out of that situation, he could be a real asset.

Edited August 29, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Sorry my original post had errors in it. I fixed them.

I think he makes more than $2-3 M in 2024. 

If he makes $4-5M in Arb 2 is he worth the risk?

He is not going to get $4-5 mm after the season he’s had.  

[DirtyBird]

14 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I mean we have a surplus of position player prospects and not all of them are going to get a chance here. That doesn’t mean they’re not talented or don’t have a future with another team — I didn’t say that. Kopech is currently not good and we shouldn’t let ourselves believe it’s worth trading someone like Norby for him. 

Do you really believe we would get a pitcher better than Dean Kremer level for a prospect like Norby?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

He is not going to get $4-5 mm after the season he’s had.  

He’s making 2M this year. I’m thinking 3.5ishM next year.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s making 2M this year. I’m thinking 3.5ishM next year.

That’s a pretty decent guess.  

[banks703]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d actually love to bring him in for the closers role next year. 

I don't hate that, or at least a spot in the pen for high leverage. That 95.2 mph fastball average probably ticks up a couple of mph in short bursts which would play up both his change and his slider and I'd bet that his whiff rate would increase with some added velo, provided that he doesn't lose the movement or spin rate. That 2501 average spin rate on his 4Seamer is nasty. 

[Jim'sKid26]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He is not going to get $4-5 mm after the season he’s had.  

Really? I am not finding a similar past example. However, he was picked #33 in the draft. He's going to likely make 28-30 starts. He's gonna get to 135-40 IP.  You don't think he gets $4 M next year? 

[dystopia]

29 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Do you really believe we would get a pitcher better than Dean Kremer level for a prospect like Norby?

Alone? Probably not, but that’s an impossible question to answer without considering the contract involved. 

[dystopia]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I think you are really overrating these guys.  Even if you don’t like Kopech or don’t want to see his upside, you are definitely overrating Norby and Stowers.

Don’t get me wrong, they are both good prospects but let’s not fool ourselves that they are high level guys or anything  like that.  They were never in the the class of prospect as what Kopech was back in the day.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with trading a guy outside of your top 10 for a guy like this.  Now, the caveat to this is simply if Elias and his staff like Kopech and feel there is something to work with there. If they do, trading either of those guys shouldn’t be something any of us question.  

They may also see Kopech as a head case or uncoachable or someone who has to be completely broken down and built back up and at the price to acquire him and pay him, it’s not worth it and if that’s the case, so be it.  

But if they view him as someone who just needs some tweaks here and there and just needs to get the hell out of that situation, he could be a real asset.

Sure he has upside, but again, he’s a project. I wouldn’t be comfortable trading someone like Norby for a project. There’s no guarantee that will work out. There are better options out there, I wouldn’t fool around with this guy. 

[Malike]

4 hours ago, banks703 said:

I don't hate that, or at least a spot in the pen for high leverage. That 95.2 mph fastball average probably ticks up a couple of mph in short bursts which would play up both his change and his slider and I'd bet that his whiff rate would increase with some added velo, provided that he doesn't lose the movement or spin rate. That 2501 average spin rate on his 4Seamer is nasty. 

He's lost his fastball, he used to have elite velo on it. It's not bad now at 94-95 but he used to be 100 regularly and he used to say his goal was to throw 105+. More concerning is his walk rate. It's never been good, at any level. His K rate is okay, but his FIP is really bad every year.

I get he was a top prospect and the allure for elite arms is strong, but he's really not an elite arm anymore. He has problems with his fastball, when he throws it above the zone he gets swing and miss but the slugging on it in the zone is very high, the same goes for his slider, it gets hammered. He's given up 28 HRs, his stuff in the zone doesn't play and with a 6 BB/IP, people are waiting him out to get back in the zone or take a walk.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Really? I am not finding a similar past example. However, he was picked #33 in the draft. He's going to likely make 28-30 starts. He's gonna get to 135-40 IP.  You don't think he gets $4 M next year? 

Where he was drafted is utterly irrelevant.  I don’t think guys frequently double their salary in Arb 2 when their ERA+ has dropped from 112 to 87.  

I think maybe Kyle Gibson is a useful comp.  He earned $2.9 mm in Arb 1, and threw 158 innings at an ERA+ of 87 that season.  That earned him a bump of $1.3 mm to $4.2 mm the following year.  A similar raise would put Kopech at $3.3 mm.
 

[Jim'sKid26]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where he was drafted is utterly irrelevant.  I don’t think guys frequently double their salary in Arb 2 when their ERA+ has dropped from 112 to 87.  

I think maybe Kyle Gibson is a useful comp.  He earned $2.9 mm in Arb 1, and threw 158 innings at an ERA+ of 87 that season.  That earned him a bump of $1.3 mm to $4.2 mm the following year.  A similar raise would put Kopech at $3.3 mm.
 

So there is an article from Ben Clemens at Fangraphs. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-arbitration-compensation-update/

In it he calculates Arb salaries using $/WAR over the minimum salary. So the minimum was $720,000 in 2023. For ease of calculation let's say in 2024 its $750,000.

Kopech has -0.7 fWAR. so he would get the minimum bump in pay. So $2.35M + 750,000 is $3.1M 

 

So I see where the Gibson comp is probably a good one. I overestimated what Kopech would get in Arb 2. 

By the way, Gibson was taken #22 by the Twins in 2009 MLB draft.