Rays series

[Billy F-Face3]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We need Adley to start stepping up.

He has hit 6 homers in the second half. That is in over 200 at bats and in his last 80 PA, he has 2 doubles.

I know  everyone here wants to continuously give him a pass but it’s time for him to step up. The OBP is all well and good but his slugging hasn’t been over 430 in a month and 420 slugging is just not acceptable for a player that should be doing more than that.

We need him in this series and I think they need to lower him in the lineup and get him in a driving the ball mindset. It’s time for him to start stepping up. This has been the Gunnar and Santander show for much of the last few months. Adley needs to join the party other than walks and singles.

I don't think Adley's been as disappointing as some are acting tonight, because he just hit 2 home runs within the past 11 days. I think he just had a bad couple of nights, as did most of the team did.

I do believe that Adley will be a whole lot more effective when he plays, if he gets a couple days where he's completely off and able to rest his legs instead of sprinting around.

But with that said, I would really like seeing Cedric back in the lead off position just because I like speedy guys at the top of the lineup who can manufacture runs. I think Gunnar is fine right where he is in the #2 spot, but they probably don't want 2 left handers stacked at the top of the order.  I suppose they could always slide Adley back to #2 and put Gunnar as cleanup or #5, or even let Gunnar be lead off. (But I think batting Gunnar lead off would waste his power and RBI potential.)

Gunnar is a special althete who strengthens your lineup just about any spot you bat him.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We need Adley to start stepping up.

I have no real problem with how Adley has played in recent weeks, but he looked really horrible tonight.  

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have no real problem with how Adley has played in recent weeks, but he looked really horrible tonight.  

Yes I know..despite him being worth about half the WAR you thought he was going to be worth, you still won’t say he has been disappointing even though he has greatly come in under every reasonable expectation.

My post has nothing to do with tonight. Any player can look like poop on any given night or any given series. This whole year hasn’t been good power wise and we have talked about the defense.

He had 11 more doubles last year in way less at bats.

Adley should be a 65+ extra base hit guy and it’s a very real possibility that he doesn’t even get to 50.  

Last year. He got an extra base hit once every 8 at bats. This year, it’s once every 12 at bats.  If he was just at the same pace of last year, he would be in the 65-67 extra base hit range.

I bet he would be a 5-6 WAR player at those numbers with a chance to push 6.5-7 with a good close to the season.

Why the power dropped is a real question to try and figure out. I think Hyde has done him a disservice with how much he has played him. That’s my best theory on why but not sure if that’s the only reason.

 

[Chavez Ravine]

Just don’t get swept. Grind it. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes I know..despite him being worth about half the WAR you thought he was going to be worth, you still won’t say he has been disappointing even though he has greatly come in under every reasonable expectation.

 

That’s a complete mischatacterization of my position.   As I explained back on July 2:

“When we discussed this, I said I was mildly disappointed in Adley’s season so far, considering my high expectations going into the season.  That was on June 12.  He hasn’t done any better since then; in fact, his OPS dropped a little further since then.  Hence, my C+ grade.  He still has time to have a better year.  

“Honestly I don’t see how anyone could say Adley is having an A/A+ season if they’re taking preseason expectations into account.  He was worth 5.3 WAR in 3/4 of a season last year, and he’s on pace for about 4 WAR this year.  He’s a deserving all star; that doesn’t mean he’s meeting my expectations, which have never been higher for a young Orioles player.”

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/48582-my-2023-midseason-report-card/#comment-2948415

Things haven’t really been better offensively since I posted that.  So, yes I am disappointed in Adley’s season.  When I said I have no problem with how Adley has played in recent weeks, he had an .880 OPS for September going into last night.   Also, he’s now +5 in catcher blocking.  I believe that the last time we talked about that he was at +2.  So, he’s been moving up in that category.  

Edited September 14, 2023 by Frobby

[Frobby]

The matchups:

Aaron Civale (7-3, 2.96 ERA overall; 2-1, 4.29 ERA with Tampa) vs. Kyle Bradish (11-6, 3.03).  Civale was acquired from the Guardians at the deadline and had a 2.34 ERA at the time; he’s been solid but unspectacular for the Rays.  He faced the O’s twice in 2021 and we lit him up for 9 ER in 11 innings.  Bradish has seen the Rays twice this year, allowing 4 runs in 11 innings.

Zach Eflin (14-8, 3.53) vs. Jack Flaherty (8-8, 4.98 overall; 1-2, 7.16 as an Oriole).  Elfin has had a very consistent season.  He’s seen the O’s twice, allowing 4 ER in 6 IP the first time but shutting the O’s out for 7 innings the second time.  Flaherty, who has struggled with the Birds, has never faced Tampa Bay.

Tyler Glasnow (9-5, 3.15) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (5-4, 4.88).  Glashow has missed a bit of time this year but is having a nice season.  He’s faced the Orioles twice, allowing 6 ER in 4.1 IP in June and 3 ER in 7 IP in July.  Rodriguez has faced Tampa once, allowing 2 ER in 5.2 IP in July.

Zack Littell 3-6, 4.06) vs. Dean Kremer (12-5, 4.25).  Littell was moved into a stsrter role in late July and has a 3.86 ERA in 9 starts since then   He faced the Orioles twice in relief this year, allowing 1 run in 3 IP.  Kremer, who’s been a bit shaky his last two times out, shut out the Rays for 6 innings in his sole appearance against them this year, back in May.

Tampa’s bullpen has a 3.74 ERA, 6th  in the AL, and a 61% save rate.  The O’s bullpen has a 3.51 ERA and also has a 61% save rate.

Offensively, Tampa is second in the AL at 5.31 runs a game and in OPS+ at 114.  The O’s are third in both categories at 5.15 runs/game and 109 OPS+.   The O’s have struggled the last two nights, however.  In their 9 head-to-head contests, the Rays have hit only .227/.324/.351 vs. the O’s, scoring 3.67 runs/game.   The O’s have hit .197/.256/.348 vs. Tampa, scoring 3.44 runs/game. Yet, the O’s lead the series 6-3, with all 6 wins by 1-2 runs.

So, though both teams are near the top in offense, this figures to be a close, well-pitched series.  Hopefully the O’s can  continue the formula that’s worked against Tampa this year.

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Frobby

[Bahama O's Fan]

Anyone can do a little bit of math for me? How many games difference will there be if we sweep the rays, if we win 3, if we win 2, if we win 1 and if we win zero?

[SteveA]

Just now, Bahama O's Fan said:

Anyone can do a little bit of math for me? How many games difference will there be if we sweep the rays, if we win 3, if we win 2, if we win 1 and if we win zero?

We are two games up on them, but 3 in the loss column.  And MLB has eliminated tiebreak games, so in a tie we would be awarded the division as long as we win at least one game this weekend and take the season series from them.

After this series is over we will have 13 games left and they will have 11.

If we sweep : we would be up 6 games, (7 in the loss column) and we would have the tiebreak.

If we win 3 of 4:  we would be up 4 games (5 in the loss column), and we would have the tiebreak.

If we split: we would be up 2 games (3 in the loss column), and we would have the tiebreak.

If Tampa wins 3 of 4: we would be virtually tied, but up  1 game on the loss column, and we would have the tiebreak so we would still be division leaders and they would still be chasing us 

If the sweep, they would be 2 games ahead (1 in the loss column), but they would have the tiebreak so they would be effectively 3 games ahead.

[Bahama O's Fan]

30 minutes ago, SteveA said:

We are two games up on them, but 3 in the loss column.  And MLB has eliminated tiebreak games, so in a tie we would be awarded the division as long as we win at least one game this weekend and take the season series from them.

After this series is over we will have 13 games left and they will have 11.

If we sweep : we would be up 6 games, (7 in the loss column) and we would have the tiebreak.

If we win 3 of 4:  we would be up 4 games (5 in the loss column), and we would have the tiebreak.

If we split: we would be up 2 games (3 in the loss column), and we would have the tiebreak.

If Tampa wins 3 of 4: we would be virtually tied, but up  1 game on the loss column, and we would have the tiebreak so we would still be division leaders and they would still be chasing us 

If the sweep, they would be 2 games ahead (1 in the loss column), but they would have the tiebreak so they would be effectively 3 games ahead.

Thank you. That makes it clearer. So one is a must, but at least two is necessary. 

[Going Underground]

30 minutes ago, SteveA said:

We are two games up on them, but 3 in the loss column.  And MLB has eliminated tiebreak games, so in a tie we would be awarded the division as long as we win at least one game this weekend and take the season series from them.

After this series is over we will have 13 games left and they will have 11.

If we sweep : we would be up 6 games, (7 in the loss column) and we would have the tiebreak.

If we win 3 of 4:  we would be up 4 games (5 in the loss column), and we would have the tiebreak.

If we split: we would be up 2 games (3 in the loss column), and we would have the tiebreak.

If Tampa wins 3 of 4: we would be virtually tied, but up  1 game on the loss column, and we would have the tiebreak so we would still be division leaders and they would still be chasing us 

If the sweep, they would be 2 games ahead (1 in the loss column), but they would have the tiebreak so they would be effectively 3 games ahead.

Splitting would be fine. Loss column would be 3 and tiebreaker with 13 games left. We could almost guarantee the best record with a sweep and even three of four ain't bad. Other teams are way back so looks like Rays or Orioles will get the bye.

 

The gates will open two hours before the game for Friday,Saturday and Sunday  

[Frobby]

My goal is for the O’s to win all four.  Domination!

I had this horrible flashback to a 4-game series we played with Tampa on Sept. 20-23, 2013.   At the time, the O’s were 81-71 and two games behind Tampa and two other teams for a wild card spot.  We came into that series hoping to sweep or at least win 3 of 4 to improve our wild card posture.  But in the first game, Tampa won in 18 innings in a game that took 6 hours and 54 minutes to play.   The O’s used 10 pitchers in that game, and losing it kind of broke us, and we ended up being swept by Tampa, effectively ending our season.   To add injury to insult, in the final game of the series, Manny’s knee buckled as he crossed 1B and he needed season-ending surgery.  To that point, he had played in every single game that season.

That was then, this is now and it’s time to extract our revenge!
 

[interloper]

We had a ton of baserunners those last two losses, and Gunnar missed the tying HR by like an inch. It felt like a pretty unlucky series, other than Rom clearly having the game of his life, so I'm not too worried. 

I really dislike the Flaherty matchup. Dude looks kind of broken, so winning game 1 would be nice. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

My goal is for the O’s to win all four.  Domination!

I had this horrible flashback to a 4-game series we played with Tampa on Sept. 20-23, 2013.   At the time, the O’s were 81-71 and two games behind Tampa and two other teams for a wild card spot.  We came into that series hoping to sweep or at least win 3 of 4 to improve our wild card posture.  But in the first game, Tampa won in 18 innings in a game that took 6 hours and 54 minutes to play.   The O’s used 10 pitchers in that game, and losing it kind of broke us, and we ended up being swept by Tampa, effectively ending our season.   To add injury to insult, in the final game of the series, Manny’s knee buckled as he crossed 1B and he needed season-ending surgery.  To that point, he had played in every single game that season.

That was then, this is now and it’s time to extract our revenge!
 

A game that was so long, Buck even used Francisco Rodriguez.     I have very clear memories of watching that night, and the main impression as it dragged on was that Buck's nuggets had been so overused that they were never going to score.     Manny's body finally giving out a few days later was not a big shock.

That 2014 happened the way it did with a bunch of the aircraft carriers on the sidelines is a credit to the culture Buck built.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

A game that was so long, Buck even used Francisco Rodriguez.     I have very clear memories of watching that night, and the main impression as it dragged on was that Buck's nuggets had been so overused that they were never going to score.     Manny's body finally giving out a few days later was not a big shock.

That 2014 happened the way it did with a bunch of the aircraft carriers on the sidelines is a credit to the culture Buck built.

Caleb Joseph and Steve Pearce were godsends that year.  And just about every one of our starting pitchers had a career year.

[TonySoprano]

All those runs scored earlier in the week, could have used 2 of them last night instead.  A 2 game margin makes things even more nerve wracking.