Nationals series

[Just Regular]

For the first of ideally four times this fall, Bradish and Rodriguez lead off a series at OPACY.

The Nationals are generally enjoying a good-ish year for where they are, the Padres struggles and several of the Soto trade guys looking good helping that perception out.     Josiah Gray still seems like a rookie to me, but it surprised me discovering he has as many career IP as John Means.

MLB Active roster k-bb standing among 100 IP attainers (a group of precisely 100 Arms today) for the pitching matchups:

(28) Bradish v. (92) Josiah Gray

(43) Grayson v. (94) Corbin

CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia are a promising looking middle infield pair both coming off hot weeks.     Hunter Harvey is the 8th inning guy.     They've got wins over the Dodgers, Brewers and Braves this month.

 

[Chelsea_Phil]

Yeah, like one win in 8 vs the Braves, nothing to be proud about.  But they do have some good young talent.

but their ownership information is in really bad shape.

[DirtyBird]

Must sweep

[dystopia]

Would suck to lose either of these games. Doesn't make either of them a must-win.

[dtk9119]

Wins in both games. Nothing less. The sooner the division can be wrapped up the better. Need the rest and time to tinker w/ Bautista, etc. I still think clinching won't be till Friday, but maybe Boston will surprise us and take 2 from the Rays.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Josiah Gray has been pitching better in September with a 3.52 ERA and 1.370 WHIP after having a horrid August with a 8.84 ERA and 1.914 WHIP. Tonight's game isn't a gimme, but it should help that the Orioles have finally had a real day off that wasn't spent traveling.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Moose Milligan]

Gotta win both.  I don't think the Nats are as bad as people thought they were going to be but they're sure not great.

Josiah Gray isn't bad, but his WHIP is 1.471.  His K/BB ratio is 1.74 and he walks 4.6/9.  Here's hoping our guys can stay patient at the plate tonight...if so, I think they'll be rewarded.  

Corbin is leading the league in losses for the third straight year, his ERA is 5.13 and his FIP is 5.21.  He doesn't walk as many batters as Gray does, but we should still be able to hit him and hang another loss on him.

 

[Moshagge3]

Not an easy series by any stretch of the imagination. The Nationals beat the Braves in the first game of a doubleheader Sunday. They lost the second game but in it they roughed up Cy Young candidate Spencer Strider a good bit (7H, 4 ER in 5.2 IP). O's can't sleepwalk through this series like they did against the Cardinals.

[Aristotelian]

Note heightened risk of unswept streak ending due to short series.

Should be an O's sweep but don't underestimate a team that has nothing to lose. Back of napkin algorithm says we have a 30% chance of clinching the division tomorrow.

[CallMeBrooksie]

I'll be pretty content with a split here. 

[waroriole]

Trap series honestly. Better come prepared. 

[Frobby]

Gray (8-12, 4.00 ERA) gave us a hard time back in April, allowing only 1 run and 4 hits in 5 innings but taking a tough-luck loss, 1-0.  So, he’s a pitcher to be reckoned with. He’s allowed 0-1 runs in 12 of 29 appearances, so when he’s on, he’s very tough.  At the same time, Bradish (11-7, 3.01 ERA) threw 6 shutout innings at the Nats in April (not  against Gray), and he’s been great of late.  So, I still like the matchup.   

We didn’t see Corbin (10-14, 5.13 ERA) this year.  He’s had his ups and downs against us in the last, with a 4.93 career ERA against us.  Last year we saw him twice and scored 3 in 4 innings the first time, but only 1 in 6 innings the second time.  I feel pretty good about our chances against him.  The Nats have never seen Grayson (6-4, 4.49 ERA) and if he’s not feeling fatigued, I feel very good snout how he’ll do.   

The O’s have a big edge in the bullpen, 3.62 ERA vs. 5.01.   Interestingly, they do edge us in save rate, 61% to 60%, and surprisingly they have only 11 fewer save opportunities and 6 fewer saves than the Orioles.  

Offensively, the O’s average 5.08 runs/game (6th in MLB), while the Nats are at 4.31 (22nd).   The O’s are at 108 OPS+ (6th) and the Nats are at 95 (20th).  

The O’s play better defense, +31 Rtot and +34 Rdrs vs. the Nats’ -14 and -25.   

The Nats played well in July and August but have fallen back on hard times (7-15) this month.  Still, they’re a lot better than they were in 2022 and they’re a better team now than they were when we saw them in April.  We shouldn’t take them lightly. 

[SteveA]

Kyle Bradish needs 3.1 more innings to get the 162 necessary to qualify for the ERA title.

He won't get the ERA title, but with his ERA at 3.01, it would be cool if he could lower it under 3.   Seems like it's been quite a while since the Orioles have had an ERA qualifier with an ERA under 3.

If he gives up 0 earned runs, and gets the 3.1 innings, he will have an ERA under 3.

If he gives up 1 earned runs and gets exactly 3.1 innings, his ERA will be 3.00.   If he gets 3.2 innings or more, his ERA would be under 3.

If he gives up 2 earned runs, 6.1 innings would get his ERA to 3.00 and 6.2 would get it to 2.99.

 

[larrytt]

Maybe I'm the only one, but I keep thinking, if we go, say, 5-1 the rest of the way, and the Braves stumble a bit and go 2-4 . . . we tie them for best record in the majors. Winning the division is what's important right now, but tying for (or having) the best record would be a fun thing to achieve. Sweeping the Nats would be a good start. 

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

I'll be pretty content with a split here. 

I wouldn’t be disturbed, but I’d be disappointed.  I want to clinch the division with as little suspense as possible.