Many Reasons to be Optimistic for the Postseason

[psagawa]

Despite the loss of Felix Bautista, there are a lot of points to be bullish about the Orioles chances:

1. Starting Pitching - Once thought to be a serious weakness, it is a clear strength now. As Frobby pointed out, Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer have been impressive since the All-Star break, Means is back and looking like his old self, while Gibson has posted strong outings in September. One of these guys (Kremer or Gibson) will become the long man in the bullpen but the top 4 stand up very well to either the Rays (Eflin, Glasnow, Civale, and Littel) or the Jays (Gausman, Bassit, Barrios, and Ryu (most likely) for the ALDS. Looking further ahead, only Seattle and Minnesota's rotations are clearly ahead of ours.

2. Bullpen - The additions of Wells, Flaherty, and Kremer/Gibson will be big, adding reliable arms to the stalwarts Cano, Perez, Coulombe, Webb, and Hall. All of them will be well rested after the bye. There will probably be one more out there - probably Fuji but there are a few more to consider - but I wouldn't expect them to get much work unless the birds are in a blowout.

3. Likely opponents - The Rays and Jays are the most likely ALDS opponents. We beat both of them decisively this year. We will be at home. We will be completely rested. Our starting pitching will be lined up as we like it (theirs will not).  Presuming we win there, we would face Texas, Minnesota, Houston/Seattle.  We are a clearly a better team than either the Twins or Mariners, despite both teams starting pitching (you have to be able to hit too). Texas and Houston are bigger challenges, but we have played a LOT better than either down the stretch.

4. Health - Other than Felix and maybe Mountcastle, we are unusually healthy relative to all of the teams that we might face in the AL.

5. Home field advantage - Yes, the Orioles record is as good on the road, but the teams we will face are all better in their own ballparks.

6. Consistency - The Orioles have not gone on long downswings and can be expected to bounce back from a loss. It will be hard to beat them multiple games in a row.

7. Balance - The team is good against both righties and lefties with few real weak spots in the line up. Frazier is the worst hitter likely to get meaningful at bats and he is near .700 OPS - most other teams will be giving at bats to MUCH worse hitters than that. N.B. I do not expect Mateo  or McCann to get in the line up much - Rays and Jays starters are predominantly righties and we won't be resting anyone.

8. Fielding, baserunning, intangibles should play to Orioles' favor.

While the national media will be pessimistic, It seems clear (at least to me) that the Orioles should be a clear favorite to represent the AL in the world series.

[Fiver6565]

All excellent points except the last. I’m not so sure the national media isn’t on the Orioles at this point. Have heard multiple talking heads state that the Os have a legit shot. Effusive praise on MLBN, Smoltz has had a lot of positive things to say on the couple of recent Fox broadcasts, etc. 

An argument can be made that the Os are set to become the darlings of the league outside of the usual suspect big cities. 

[Uli2001]

The Orioles are the best team in the AL. But there is a lot of intangibles that go into a 7-game series as opposed to a 162-game season. You need talent, but you also need a bit of luck.

[jabba72]

SP was definitely the biggest weakness early on, but With Bradish and Grayson emerging in a big way, this team has a legit shot to go all the way. 

[Aristotelian]

I'm feeling pretty zen. For me, the biggest reason for optimism is the organization is set up to compete for a long time. Win or lose, this isn't going to be our only shot. We have a great core of young players and outstanding leadership. (OK, we do need ownership to step up).

As far as this year, it seems like Bradish and Grayson seem like the type of 1A/1B combo that can get hot at the right time and dominate. They have been doing it all second half. Just need to carry it through a bit longer. Those guys could each be good for two wins in a 7 game series.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, psagawa said:

 

3. Likely opponents - The Rays and Jays are the most likely ALDS opponents. We beat both of them decisively this year. We will be at home.

100% home field advantage is only wildcard round.

ALDS I believe is 2-2-1, so for the road team a split is all they need to open up an opportunity to close out on their home field.

Certainly if things go very well, Bradish and Grayson may not pitch on the road for a minute.    The two big guns are in place to protect the OPACY house.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Just Regular

[Frobby]

I love this post.  But it will annoy me greatly if we lose a playoff series to Tampa or especially Toronto, after beating both in the season series.  The Tampa series was tight but the Toronto series really wasn’t at all that close, even game by game.

[EddeeEddee]

I will feel better when the offense comes back.  The O's have been a light hitting team lately.

[InsideCoroner]

The one thing I’m uncertain about with a team with very little postseason experience is how they handle nerves and all the added attention. Some guys continue to do what they did all year, and others seem to put too much pressure on themselves. I remember players like Adam Jones and Wieters whose postseason OPS were each south of .450, SSS notwithstanding (because for most players, SSS is often all you get). But this core had zero expectations, there is no “now or never” pressure, so I hope they go out without a care in the world… and just casually and meticulously knock down every opponent over the next three series.

Edited October 1, 2023 by InsideCoroner

[deward]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm feeling pretty zen. For me, the biggest reason for optimism is the organization is set up to compete for a long time. Win or lose, this isn't going to be our only shot. We have a great core of young players and outstanding leadership. (OK, we do need ownership to step up).

As far as this year, it seems like Bradish and Grayson seem like the type of 1A/1B combo that can get hot at the right time and dominate. They have been doing it all second half. Just need to carry it through a bit longer. Those guys could each be good for two wins in a 7 game series.

We all hope they'll be back regularly over the next few years, but you never know about these things. That said, my minimum acceptable outcome is not losing to the Jays or Rays. That would sting. 

[now]

3 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

The one thing I’m uncertain about with a team with very little postseason experience is how they handle nerves and all the added attention. Some guys continue to do what they did all year, and others seem to put too much pressure on themselves. I remember players like Adam Jones and Wieters whose postseason OPS were each south of .450, SSS notwithstanding (because for most players, SSS is often all you get). But this core had zero expectations, there is no “now or never” pressure, so I hope they go out without a care in the world… and just casually and meticulously knock down every opponent over the next three series.

This situation you note above gives me a 1966 vibe. Too young and too good, to show any fear!

Or for a different dose of optimism, compare '82-'83 Ripken with '23 Henderson, 40 years later. I predict 7 games over PHL for the rematch, with ex-Phil Gibson getting the win in relief.

[Roy Firestone]

4 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

I will feel better when the offense comes back.  The O's have been a light hitting team lately.

what has happened to Ryan O'Hearn? One our best clutch hitter, he cant even smell a hit right now and he(along with Santander ) is striking out a ton...Luckily, If O' Hearn slumps theres always Mountcastle...

[ace20251]

might end up being tampa vs. houston or texas depending on what happens tomorrow

[EddeeEddee]

2 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

what has happened to Ryan O'Hearn? One our best clutch hitter, he cant even smell a hit right now and he(along with Santander ) is striking out a ton...Luckily, If O' Hearn slumps theres always Mountcastle...

Mullins too.  Seems like only Adley has been fairly hot lately.  Hopefully Mountcastle's double tonight will get things going for everyone else.  Fingers crossed the several days off they'll get next week will help reenergize things.

[LA2]

11 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

Mullins too.  Seems like only Adley has been fairly hot lately.  Hopefully Mountcastle's double tonight will get things going for everyone else.  Fingers crossed the several days off they'll get next week will help reenergize things.

Mountcastle being back to pick up for O'Hearn if he can't shake his first slump of an amazing season is a big plus.

But I'm worried that the days off can just as well have the opposite effect--I still remember the juggernaut Rockies team of 2007 getting swept after they waited around for the AL championship to be decided. Or last season's 111-51 Dodgers team losing to the over-performing Padres; their final regular season  game was Oct. 5th and they had to wait until Oct. 11th for their  first playoff game. I wonder what lessons LA learned from that.

Edited October 1, 2023 by LA2