2024 Rotation

[Jim'sKid26]

Is there still an interest in Dylan Cease? He did not have quite the year in 2023 he had in 2022 but he's still only 27, (will play all of 2024 at 28) and has 3 straight years of 200+ Ks. He's durable, 3 years of 30 + starter and at least 165 IP, and misses bats (career 10.8 K/9). He's a FA in 2026. 

To me, he is the Garrett Cole to the Astros equivalent for the O's in 2024. The Pirates got the right-handers Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin for Cole. I am terrible at constructing trades, but what would be a fair package to Chicago for Cease?

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, Morgan423 said:

I'm not exactly optimistic on our super-cheapo owner allowing any significant money to be spent.     

Something out super-cheapo owner failed to understand is that by failing to upgrade our roster, it cost him millions of dollars in revenue because it impacted their ability to continue to have more postseason home games. As a result of being cheap, we ended up with cheap ineffective players at the trade deadline. As a result of that, we got swept in the 1st playoff series we even played. As a result of that, no more home games. As a result of that, no more revenue from the season.

It's a total wasted opportunity from a Bussiness standpoint. It takes investment to make money. 

Invest in the best players for areas that the team needs in order to beat the best teams in the playoffs and become World Series Champions. Then the added revenue will more than pay for the investment of the players contract.

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is there still an interest in Dylan Cease? He did not have quite the year in 2023 he had in 2022 but he's still only 27, (will play all of 2024 at 28) and has 3 straight years of 200+ Ks. He's durable, 3 years of 30 + starter and at least 165 IP, and misses bats (career 10.8 K/9). He's a FA in 2026. 

To me, he is the Garrett Cole to the Astros equivalent for the O's in 2024. The Pirates got the right-handers Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin for Cole. I am terrible at constructing trades, but what would be a fair package to Chicago for Cease?

Rumors were that CWS wanted Holliday for Cease at the trade deadline. They made a mistake not trading him with 2.5 years remaining, his trade value is only going down as he approaches FA. They will have a new GM now so maybe they will realize they need to rebuild, so it is a possibility, but they could also view Cease as a building block piece and extension candidate. 

If CWS makes him available he won’t come cheap. I’m not sure the Orioles will be willing to part with multiple coveted prospects for 2 seasons of Cease, as they almost certainly won’t be willing to give him the extension he’d require.

Even if CWS moves off Holliday they may insist on Mayo or Basallo and I don’t think the Orioles do that. I think the Dodgers would outbid the Orioles as they need SP, they have the prospects and are up against the luxury tax so they’ll really value him on his cheaper arb years and know they will have the inside track to retain him as a FA is they so choose. 

[G54377]

I'd like a veteran lefty added into the mix. Unfortunately I don't think we will pony up the $$$ for Snell, Montgomery or Rodriguez. How about Martin Perez? He got sort of lost in the shuffle in Texas, but he'd at least replace Gibson's production with some room for upgrade. I'm looking at this really with what we'd realistically pay for. A trade is the only way I see us getting a true TOR caliber starter.

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Kremer makes 32 starts, 172.2 IP with a 13-5 record and you think he is ideally the 6th starter?   I think there at least 25 teams that would want him in their rotation including the Orioles.

For a contending team, you ideally need 6 starters that you are comfortable with, and 4 that you are happy to start in a playoff series. You have to be prepared for injuries and have at least 6 SP to make a 5 man rotation.

I count Kremer as good enough for the 6 but not good enough for the 4 man playoff rotation. Kremer was easily one of the worst SP to start a playoff game this year. He is a MLB quality starter and would improve the back end of many rotations but would not be a top 4 SP (when all are healthy) on any teams expected to win 90+ games. 

If the Orioles add one outside SP and Kremer enters the season as the #5 starter, that’s fine. But they need to be comfortable with the #6-8 SP on the depth chart. If Hall and Wells are relieving, that would be Irvin, McDermott and Povich. I don’t think McDermott or Povich are ready so that’s relying a lot on Irvin.

Personally I would have one or both of Hall and Wells stretched out as starters in spring training, and then they would be fine with making just one outside SP acquisition that would make Kremer the #5 SP. But if they want to make both Wells and Hall closer/setup men, they need to add a second SP that either bumps Kremer to #6 (with the understanding that he will still likely end up starting 20+ games that way, if not a full season), or slots in behind Kremer or Irvin. 

 

[Spy Fox]

I think the most likely rotation is Bradish/Rodriguez/Means/Kremer + an acquisition. With Hall/Wells/Irvin in the pen.

And I think that would be a strong plan, as that’s a solid starting 5 and Wells/Hall could really help the bullpen withstand the loss of Bautista. 

But I like that the flexibility here allows Elias to trade from this pool if needed (Kremer or Wells most likely) and still have solid options left 1-5. 

[G54377]

I liked what I saw from Wells out of the bullpen. Given he has now struggled to stay healthy and productive as a starter two years in a row (and is now approaching 30 years old), I think this is his new role. 

[Bemorewins]

Responding to the OP, I don't believe that we are pitching rich at all. There may be 7 "candidates" but several of them are not in any way upgrades and/or impact starters. We have Bradish and Grayson as solide anchors, Means as an unknown because of the injury situation, Kremer as a #5 starter and the other 3 are bullpen guys. Irvin is NOT a good starter for a team trying to win a division and make a deep playoff run, Wells (who I love) has not been able to finish back to back seasons in the rotation and is aged 29 (he's likely to be as good as he ever will be right now so he can't be counted on, and Hall will be needed in the bullpen especially with Bautista's injury (also Hall has never even been a good starter at AAA and will be aged 26 next year).

So in all I count 3 and possible with Means up in the air. We definitely need 1 to 2 upgrades. There is absolutely NO WAY I would want the team to go into the season with these 7. We can't win a World Series with that kind of rotation. This year's wasn't nearly good enough, should we waste another year with a "rinse and repeat" approach? 

[Oriole1940]

If we had SP, a couple at least, who routinely go 7 or 8 innings instead of 4,5,6 it takes pressure off the BP.  Asking a pitcher to go 7 innings or so would not seem outrageous since it is a 9 or more inning game.  Only in recent years  it seems to be a struggle to do so.  Before , if a pitcher could not do that he was usually replaced by one who could.  Now a days it is more times than not,  a BP game.   And still arm injuries seem to be as frequent or worse than ever.   Go Orioles in 2024.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Let's assume the Orioles are not going to give the big multi-year contract for a free agent starting pitcher, but have some budget to take a gamble on a 1-2 year contract at a fairly significant price for a guy with upside and past performance but whose deal will be limited by age and/or injuries. 

There's a lot of options out there.  Who do you think they'll target? Some good writeups in this link - I think the below could be on the radar for that type of deal.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/previewing-the-2023-24-free-agent-class-starting-pitcher.html

Quote

Kenta Maeda (36)

Maeda’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery has been better than it might look at first glance. The right-hander’s 101 innings of 4.28 ERA ball seem solid enough on the surface, but that’s skewed by a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, after which Maeda hit the injured list due to a triceps injury. Maeda missed nearly two months, but since returning he’s rattled off 16 starts of 3.39 ERA ball, striking out 28.7% of his opponents against a 6.7% walk rate. The extent to which that injury impacted his one true meltdown of the year can’t be fully known, but since returning, he’s looked close to the version of himself that finished second in American League Cy Young voting back in 2020. He should find a multi-year deal at a healthy annual value this winter, although his age might limit it to a two-year term.

Tyler Mahle (29)

The Twins traded three prospects to acquire Mahle for a year and a half, but he wound up pitching just 42 innings for Minnesota due to a shoulder issue and, in 2023, a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery. It turned into a rotten trade, considering the Twins parted with Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to acquire Mahle. Mahle pitched well for the Twins when healthy, however, and he has a strong overall track record dating back to his 2020 breakout: 374 innings, 3.90 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate. The right-hander’s biggest problem with the Reds was home runs, though the vast majority of the long balls he surrendered were at Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park. Mahle has good command, can miss bats and will be 29 for all of next season. He probably won’t pitch until the end of the 2024 season, but teams have generally been willing to sign quality arms like this to two-year deals while they rehab, with an eye toward the second year of the contract.

Frankie Montas (31)

Speaking of deadline acquisitions that didn’t pan out,  the Yankees got just 39 2/3 innings out of Montas after trading JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina to the A’s for Montas and Lou Trivino in July 2022. Shoulder surgery wiped out all of Montas’ 2023 season, and he’ll now hit the market in search of a bounceback opportunity. Prior to his shoulder woes, Montas had stepped up as the top starter on a strong Oakland staff, logging 291 2/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball with a 26.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 44% ground-ball rate. Whoever signs him this winter will be hoping for a return to that form. Montas will pitch all of next year at 31, and a deal that allows him to return to the market next winter after reestablishing both his health and productivity makes sense.

James Paxton (35)

After barely pitching from 2020-22, Paxton returned to the mound with 19 starts and 96 innings for the Red Sox in 2023. He posted a pedestrian 4.50 ERA, although it seems the lefty just wore down late in the season after such a lengthy layoff from pitching. Up through Aug. 16, Paxton was sporting a 3.34 ERA, but that number ballooned after he yielded 16 runs in his final 9 2/3 frames (three starts). There’s never been much doubt about the quality of Paxton’s stuff. He posted a 3.50 ERA over his first 733 big league innings from 2013-19, peaking with a 2.98 ERA and premium strikeout/walk rates with the 2017 Mariners. Health has been a major issue, however, as he’s dealt with shoulder and forearm injuries in addition to undergoing Tommy John surgery and back surgery. Paxton turns 35 in November and has one of the highest ceilings in this class but also poses one of the greatest injury risks.

Hyun Jin Ryu (37)

Much of what was written of Paxton holds true of Ryu as well. The 36-year-old southpaw (37 in March) has a career 3.24 ERA in 1048 big league innings and is an ace-caliber arm at best — evidenced by his runner-up finish in 2019’s NL Cy Young voting, when he posted a 2.32 ERA in 182 2/3 innings (during the juiced-ball season, no less). Ryu doesn’t have Paxton’s velocity or strikeout rate, but he has standout command and misses bats at a roughly average rate. He’s pitched 44 2/3 innings with a 2.62 ERA in his 2023 return from Tommy John surgery. It’s hard to imagine Ryu commanding anything more than two years, and his age/injury history might relegate him to one-year offers. If that’s the case, however, he should net a relatively hefty price.

Luis Severino (30)

Severino looked like a budding ace with the Yankees in 2017-18, but injuries have limited him to just 209 1/3 innings over the past five seasons combined. A strained rotator cuff, two lat strains and Tommy John surgery are among the many injuries he’s incurred since that breakout. Severino has always pitched well when healthy — until this season, when he posted a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 frames. An exasperated Severino candidly acknowledged in July that he felt like “the worst pitcher in the game” as he tried to get to the root of this year’s struggles. He’ll turn 30 next February, so there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around. A change of scenery seems likely, and Severino will likely have to settle for a short-term deal.

 

[nvpacchi]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Let's assume the Orioles are not going to give the big multi-year contract for a free agent starting pitcher, but have some budget to take a gamble on a 1-2 year contract at a fairly significant price for a guy with upside and past performance but whose deal will be limited by age and/or injuries. 

There's a lot of options out there.  Who do you think they'll target? Some good writeups in this link - I think the below could be on the radar for that type of deal.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/previewing-the-2023-24-free-agent-class-starting-pitcher.html

 

Maeda is my favorite option among the affordable options where the Os could shop.  always has posted plus K rates and walk rates, has an elite out pitch, and while injured more than you'd like, he's still in the Tommy John honey moon phase where you can get 250 to 300 innings from a guy before fear creeps in about the surgery rearing its ugly head again.  And like Bradish he's already ditched the FB in favor of the split and slider- expected velo decline with age hopefully hurts him less than it would a guy that needs velo for all his stuff to play up.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

Maeda is my favorite option among the affordable options where the Os could shop.  always has posted plus K rates and walk rates, has an elite out pitch, and while injured more than you'd like, he's still in the Tommy John honey moon phase where you can get 250 to 300 innings from a guy before fear creeps in about the surgery rearing its ugly head again.  And like Bradish he's already ditched the FB in favor of the split and slider- expected velo decline with age hopefully hurts him less than it would a guy that needs velo for all his stuff to play up.

I like Maeda but he’s so hard to trust. He’s basically a better Tyler Wells.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I like Maeda the most among those that are currently healthy. I also like Andrew Heaney, who is in that write up but I didn’t quote, but he may take his $13M player option.

Montas and Mahle would be really interesting given their age and top level performance when healthy but very out of character for the Orioles to commit money to injured pitchers. However, the Orioles haven’t ever really been in the position they’re in now, where they have some available budget, not many roster holes, a lot of SP options and some reliable back-end arms and just need SP upside. 

If the Orioles aren’t shopping in the top end of the market (they won’t) and don’t pull off a trade (they’ll try, but may not be able to), it makes more sense to buy some lottery tickets instead of another Lyles or Gibson type. They have Bradish, Grayson and Means to front the rotation, plus Kremer and Irvin to soak up innings - maybe they add a 1-2 risky but high upside FAs on 1-2 year deals and convert Hall and Wells back to SP and just see what sticks?

Elias has publicly stated that they moved the wall to make the team a more appealing destination for pitchers, and you can read into that meaning 1 yr deals for pitchers seeking to rebuild value and re-enter the market. I think we could see that play out this offseason. 

[EricK]

Obviously not in the big-name, multi-year realm, but how about Jose Quintana as a one-year deal trade option?  The Mets are not going to compete in 2024 and this is his last year at one year, $13M.  He seemed to be healthy upon his return.  If we're going for an injury risk-type (like Maeda) one year deal, Quintana is a lefty starter.  This may be reasonable.  Would a nominal trade of Tate for Quintana make sense?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quintjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.mlbtraderumors.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-11_br

 

 

 

[waroriole]

21 minutes ago, EricK said:

Obviously not in the big-name, multi-year realm, but how about Jose Quintana as a one-year deal trade option?  The Mets are not going to compete in 2024 and this is his last year at one year, $13M.  He seemed to be healthy upon his return.  If we're going for an injury risk-type (like Maeda) one year deal, Quintana is a lefty starter.  This may be reasonable.  Would a nominal trade of Tate for Quintana make sense?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quintjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.mlbtraderumors.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-11_br

 

 

 

Probably need more than Tate, but someone out of our Top 15 prospects should do it. In the Wagnerish range. 
 

Quintana is the type of move we’d make, and it wouldn’t be bad.