Which of our AAA prospects has the biggest impact on 2024?

[waroriole]

I went with Cowser. He’s had the most success at Norfolk, and is the most likely to be on the OD roster. I know the shine evaporated from him, but the talent is there. It’s just a matter of hitting into better luck. 

[Frobby]

The fact that we have 9 plausible names to choose from is fairly astounding.  Some more plausible than others, admittedly.  

[StottyByNature]

I went with McDermott.  I think we have a glaring need for bullpen arms and we might just find that he slots in perfectly.  I would also not bet on us having such durable starters this year.

The other guys don't have as clear a path to regular playing time.

[forphase1]

I honestly went with Ortiz, but I realize it's mainly wishful thinking.  I'm hoping/thinking of a roster without Frazier and without one/both of Urias and Mateo would largely leave Westburg, Henderson and Ortiz to man the infield, at least until it's Holiday time, and even then Ortiz can be a part of a 4 man infield rotation.  I really like the Kjerstad picks, but unless we part with someone in the outfield I just don't see him getting enough at bats just at DH to really have that kind of an impact.  Lot will be determined over this offseason, who is kept and who has some playing time opened up.

[oriole]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

 

Couldn't they try to win ROY with Holliday this year? 

They could, I just don’t expect it. I think he either starts the year at Baltimore or he’s a late season call up. And since he’s so young and Elias is usually slow to promote guys, I really have a hard time seeing him on the team on OD.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

 

Couldn't they try to win ROY with Holliday this year? 

Could do that with a few guys. Kjerstad, Mayo, Holiday, …is Grayson still a rookie?

[Aristotelian]

25 minutes ago, oriole said:

They could, I just don’t expect it. I think he either starts the year at Baltimore or he’s a late season call up. And since he’s so young and Elias is usually slow to promote guys, I really have a hard time seeing him on the team on OD.

He doesn't need 600 AB's to win ROY. You only need about 100 AB's to qualify. Obviously you probably want more than that to have a good chance but plenty of guys have gotten it recently in the 300-450 range. Holliday is ahead of Gunnar's development pace so you wouldn't think they would slow him down now just to increase his ROY chances.

Harris 441

Acuna 433

Correa 432

Yordan 313

Bellinger 480

Wil Myers 335

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

He doesn't need 600 AB's to win ROY. You only need about 100 AB's to qualify. Obviously you probably want more than that to have a good chance but plenty of guys have gotten it recently in the 300-450 range. Holliday is ahead of Gunnar's development pace so you wouldn't think they would slow him down now just to increase his ROY chances.

Harris 441

Acuna 433

Correa 432

Yordan 313

Bellinger 480

Wil Myers 335

I’ve posted this about 3-4 times in various threads, but I will say it again: the O’s should bring up Holliday when he’s their best option to help the team.  Not before, not after.   ROY considerations shouldn’t be any significant factor in the timing of his call up.   

[MurphDogg]

I don't think Holliday is going to spend over a year in AAA just to keep his rookie status for 2025. If he is ready in the spring, he should be on the Opening Day roster and make a run for rookie of the year this season, if he isn't, he should come up when he is ready. I would be surprised if that was any later than the end of May. 

Edited October 23, 2023 by MurphDogg

[Big Al]

I went with Ortiz, because I attend many Tides games and he puts up one or two web gems every game and had an .885 OPS at AAA.  

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ve posted this about 3-4 times in various threads, but I will say it again: the O’s should bring up Holliday when he’s their best option to help the team.  Not before, not after.   ROY considerations shouldn’t be any significant factor in the timing of his call up.   

I don't disagree with you, but I'd imagine that the team looks at it differently. I don't think they will want to get burned like they did with Adley. I think he will be in Baltimore right out of spring training, or late enough in the season that there's some clear cut leaders for ROY.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't disagree with you, but I'd imagine that the team looks at it differently. I don't think they will want to get burned like they did with Adley. I think he will be in Baltimore right out of spring training, or late enough in the season that there's some clear cut leaders for ROY.

I don’t think the team will look at it differently.  The team is trying to win the division and/or make the playoffs.   When it comes to using their minor league talent, they will do whatever they think maximizes the chance for the team to win the most games it can.

I should add that Holliday is not an early favorite to win rookie of the year next year.  There are numerous top prospects who are far more fully seasoned.  The O’s aren’t going to stick him on the OD roster just to take a shot at that, unless he’s actually ready to help the team more than the many other players in the organization who play 2B or SS.   And maybe he’ll come to spring training and prove that he is.   Elias will give him that opportunity.   But I’m pretty skeptical he’ll win an OD spot.  

[maybenxtyr]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think the team will look at it differently.  The team is trying to win the division and/or make the playoffs.   When it comes to using their minor league talent, they will do whatever they think maximizes the chance for the team to win the most games it can.

I should add that Holliday is not an early favorite to win rookie of the year next year.  There are numerous top prospects who are far more fully seasoned.  The O’s aren’t going to stick him on the OD roster just to take a shot at that, unless he’s actually ready to help the team more than the many other players in the organization who play 2B or SS.   And maybe he’ll come to spring training and prove that he is.   Elias will give him that opportunity.   But I’m pretty skeptical he’ll win an OD spot.  

I don't mean to imply that they're as concerned about the draft pick, but more concerned about losing the year of service time.

[MCO'sFan]

24 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't mean to imply that they're as concerned about the draft pick, but more concerned about losing the year of service time.

I went with Kjerstad. Correct me if I’m wrong. I thought you only get the draft pick if they are on the OD roster. They get the full service time if they finish top 2 or 3 I don’t remember in ROY. 

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think the team will look at it differently.  The team is trying to win the division and/or make the playoffs.   When it comes to using their minor league talent, they will do whatever they think maximizes the chance for the team to win the most games it can.

I should add that Holliday is not an early favorite to win rookie of the year next year.  There are numerous top prospects who are far more fully seasoned.  The O’s aren’t going to stick him on the OD roster just to take a shot at that, unless he’s actually ready to help the team more than the many other players in the organization who play 2B or SS.   And maybe he’ll come to spring training and prove that he is.   Elias will give him that opportunity.   But I’m pretty skeptical he’ll win an OD spot.  

Interesting take.  I agree.  But......the thought that I have is how long can Westburg hold off Holliday?

So if Westburg begins the season at 2B, SS is Gunnar's to lose and he will not.  Ortiz's quickness and bat probably put him at 3B to begin the season IMO.    But Holliday will look good in ST.  And with his talent he will not be in AAA long.  Just long enough to show he can play 2B well.  Maybe 45 to 60 days.   At that point Westburg better be flying to hold off Holiday.  

That is my opinion.  Holliday could still be ROY.