Worrying about RISP regression

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think either Gunnar or Adley could be an .850+ guy.  Frankly, I’d expected Adley to be an .850+ guy last year, as he was in the second half of 2022.  And Gunnar is adding to his game all the time.  

If Gunnar can combine the second half hitting with the first half walk rate...

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If Gunnar can combine the second half hitting with the first half walk rate...

I think he’s still calibrating the patience/aggressiveness tradeoff.  He was too patient in April and May, and perhaps was too aggressive at times in the second half.   There’s a happy medium somewhere that’s the best version of Gunnar, and I expect he’ll find his way there eventually.   

Honestly, I could say the same of Adley.  He’s still learning when to ambush a pitcher and when to try to pull the ball vs. going the other way.  
 

[Orioles0615]

15 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Its possible, though I think the eventual peak teams closer to genuine 100-win teams will give us one or two better than 2023's impostor 100 win teams.     Marginal Wins 88-100 probably don't feel very valuable in some front offices this minute with NL6 repeating as their league champion.

SHH don't say this on the Orioles subreddit. That place is the deftition of toxic positivity. 

[LookinUp]

18 hours ago, Since1984 said:

Without researching, I believe the success relates to platoons, pinch hitting, and several hot streaks...

The biggest improvement will need to come from within. It would also be nice to add a big bat.

All of that said, I wonder how much validity there is to the post above. A hallmark of Elias' management has been platooning right and left handers. There's a reason for that and it's to be able to create favorable matchups for your team.

I don't have any insight on how much of this difference from the norm could be related to that. I doubt it's more than half (just a guess). That said, I do think there's a method to Elias' madness that supports better results in those situations.

[btdart20]

The buzzword for 2022 was "veteranosity" and personified by Odor.  For 2023, it was "clutchiness" and personified by Frazier.  

I do think the low K% impacts the "clutchiness" factor with RISP.  And I suspect BB% moves the needle much less than Babip does.  But agree with the idea that we can't bank on the tailwinds we had in the 2023 RISP success.  It's best to increase the total # of RISP.

 

The O's were middle of the pack for the top 5 spots' OPS.  The expected teams are at the top (ATL, LAD, TEX, TBR, HOU, PHI).  This OPS gap is why I don't see us trading Santander away this year.

2023 MLB Team Rankings Of Ops From The First 5 Spots In The Batting Order | StatMuse

 

Our 2023 batting order was all over the map.  It was an attempt by management to maximize bench spots/talent and platoon splits in a Raysian fashion as a way to cover for lesser top-tier talent.

Only Adley, Gunnar, and Santander are top 5 hitters (and Mounty vs. LHP).

 

Paths to improvement:

1) One of Holliday/Cowser settles in as a lead-off hitter with a .350+ OBP.

2) One of Mayo/HK settles in as a MOO with a .785+ OPS (maybe not season-long, but that type of hitter heading into the playoffs).

3) Bring in a better power hitter (who mashed RHP as a RHH).  Soler/Duvall/JD Martinez/J. Turner fit the mold while Cowser/Mayo/HK move along their Rookie Integration Plan.  

4)  If two of the above happens, then neither O'Hearn nor Mounty are in the top 5 vs. RHP.  I don't think we can assume O'Hearn continues to have a .800+ OPS (and then be pleasantly surprised if he can repeat it).  And Mounty's stripes vs. RHP aren't changing.  Assuming we continue with this platoon, whoever gets the bulk of time vs. RHP at 1B should hit no higher than 6th.

5) Improve the bottom 3 spots. 

2023 Orioles triple slash for the 7th-9th spot:

   7th - .230/.305/.377 (.682)

   8th - .249/.302/.413 (.715)

   9th - .225/.292/.324 (.616)

Not having/minimizing Frazier, Mateo, and Urias will improve these spots.  All of our other usual non-prospect (non-McCann) suspects to fill in the bottom 4 spots will likely post a higher than .715 OPS:  Hays, Westburg, Mullins (even Urias has a .730 career OPS).  There's a good chance that the majority of the top prospects will as well:  Cowser, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo, HK, Holliday.

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think either Gunnar or Adley could be an .850+ guy.  Frankly, I’d expected Adley to be an .850+ guy last year, as he was in the second half of 2022.  And Gunnar is adding to his game all the time.  

I think Gunnar is the most likely current player to get there. I also expected more from Adley this year, but maybe the wear and tear of catching every day got to him. It’s possible that Mayo or Kjerstad become that elite hitter. 

[Frobby]

Guys who were just crazy good with RISP this year (RISP OPS/Overall OPS):

Mullins 1.025/.721

Hicks .980/.806

Mountcastle .941/.779

Henderson .935/.814

Frazier .932/.696

Santander .919/.797

O’Hearn .891/.801

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think Gunnar is the most likely current player to get there. I also expected more from Adley this year, but maybe the wear and tear of catching every day got to him. It’s possible that Mayo or Kjerstad become that elite hitter. 

I can see Mountcastle having a season in which he just stays hot.  Sort of like Schoop in 2017.

[Frobby]

Bump….

In the Jackson Holliday thread, @Tony-OHasked some questions about this year’s RiSP numbers and getting runners in from 3B and less than two out.  I thought this was a better place to answer than in the Holiiday thread.  And as you’ll see from the year-old OP, regression with RISP from last year’s great numbers was a foreseeable issue.  

Getting to Tony’s questions, the Orioles are hitting .250/.313/.428 with RISP, compared to league average .253/.331/.415.   Slightly below league average in BA, well below in OBP, decently above it in SLG, so that the .741 RISP OPS is slightly below league average .746.   But what’s notable is, overall the O’s hit .250/.316/.438, while the league hits .244/.312/.400.   So, while the league as a whole does better in RISP situations than non-RISP, the O’s are slightly worse in RISP than non-RISP, in stark contrast to last year (see the OP).

I also think the RISP numbers have been especially bad the last couple of months, but I’ll post separately on that.  

Now to the separate question of runners on 3B, less than two out.  Needless to say, you don’t need to get a hit to score a runner from 3B in that situation; a sac fly or ground ball in the right spot will do. The major league success rate is not as high as you might think: 51.4%, so it’s far from automatic.  But the O’s are bad at it, 48.6%, 9th worst in MLB.  The O’s hit .303/.330/.502 in that situation; that sounds good, but the league as a whole hits .317/.346/.510.  So, we’re an above average hitting team that doesn’t step up its game as much as most teams in that situation.   Also, the O’s strike out 22.9% of the time in that situation, compared to league average 20.2% of the time.  That’s a 2.7% difference, which almost entirely explains the gap between the league’s 51.4% success rate and the O’s 48.6%.   You can also pretty much explain it with the dismal performance of one player, Colton Cowser, who’s only gotten the runner home 9 times in 31 opportunities, striking out 35.5% of the time.

I won’t be able to document this one, but I’m quite sure the O’s have been especially bad at getting runners in from 3B with less than two out over the last 2 months or so.  

I’ll finish this post with one sliver of surprisingly positive news about our situational hitting: the O’s are 5th in MLB in advancing a runner from 2B with nobody out, at 54.6.% compared to league average 50.7%.    Of course, once we get the runner to 3B, we’re then well below average at getting him home, so this is kind of a hollow victory.  



 

[Sports Guy]

On 10/25/2023 at 8:18 AM, Sports Guy said:

Big reason why you need real improvements on this team and stop saying, but they won 101 games.

The amount of games they won in 2023 is irrelevant to how they do in 2024.

Bump

[Moose Milligan]

That sound you guys hear is SG patting himself on the back