Santander Speculation

[baltfan]

14 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/mlb-executives-expect-the-baltimore-orioles-to-trade-either-anthony-santander-or-austin-hays-this-offseason

This makes waayyy too much sense not to happen.  They need to free one outfield spot at least, and this would do it.

[Just Regular]

Like Teoscar, Jorge Soler is a decent comp for Santander.    It looks like he hit all his 2023 escalators on his 2024 salary to take it to 1/13, and he will probably opt-out to become another free agent this winter.      Economic analysts playing games with AAV, this is also my first time noticing Kim Ng really won him at 2/27, and the 1/9 for 2024 was basically just "extra guaranteed cash" in case 2022-2023 Soler was bad.      Teoscar and Soler's actual 2023's perhaps will give Santander a view what his FA would be like in a Bad Case or Good Case scenario.

Jorge Soler dh-rf
3 years/$36M (2022-24)

• 3 years/$36M (2022-24)
  • signed by Miami as a free agent 3/20/22
  • 22:$12M, 23:$15M, 24:$9M
  • Soler may opt out of contract after 2022 and 2023 seasons
  • 2024 salary increases based on plate appearances in 2023: $500,000 each for 350, 400 PA. $1M each for 450, 500, 550 PA

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sound pretty dismissive of Santander's importance to the O's in 2024.   He is as established switchhitting power hitter who has average 30 homers over the last two years.   He had 95 RBI last year.  He is a leader for the Latin players.    Who else to the O's have that has done that?  No-one.

He would be hard to replace.

Sure Kjerstad, Gunnar and Mayo may all that the capability to be 30 homer middle of the order hitters sometime in the future but other then Gunnar I would not bet on that kind of production in 2024 from the rookies.  The O's are building for a World Series run in 2024.   I think they keep their good players like Santander and add not subtract.

You make good points but the Orioles are not likely to sign Santander after this season and you could make the same exact argument next year, assuming Santander has another healthy, productive year.   At some point, you have to start turning over the roster.   Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz, Norby, and Westburg are ready.   It’s time to see what they can do or move them.  Again, you can makeup whatever you lose going from Santander to Kjerstad/Cowser with the Santander trade return plus the payroll savings.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sound pretty dismissive of Santander's importance to the O's in 2024.   He is as established switchhitting power hitter who has average 30 homers over the last two years.   He had 95 RBI last year.  He is a leader for the Latin players.    Who else to the O's have that has done that?  No-one.

He would be hard to replace.

Sure Kjerstad, Gunnar and Mayo may all that the capability to be 30 homer middle of the order hitters sometime in the future but other then Gunnar I would not bet on that kind of production in 2024 from the rookies.  The O's are building for a World Series run in 2024.   I think they keep their good players like Santander and add not subtract.

He’s not “hard to replace”.

5+ WAR players are hard to replace. If Adley blows out his Achilles in ST, he would be hard to replace. 
 

Santander isn’t that.

CP is right. People overrate him.  I think we heard arguments over the year about how hard it would be to replace Mancini. 
 

Good organizations can easily overcome a loss like this and the Os have the horses to do it.

Now, this doesn’t mean you give him away. You have to get value for him but let’s not overstate who Santander is.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Sound pretty dismissive of Santander's importance to the O's in 2024.   He is as established switchhitting power hitter who has average 30 homers over the last two years.   He had 95 RBI last year.  He is a leader for the Latin players.    Who else to the O's have that has done that?  No-one.

He would be hard to replace.

Sure Kjerstad, Gunnar and Mayo may all that the capability to be 30 homer middle of the order hitters sometime in the future but other then Gunnar I would not bet on that kind of production in 2024 from the rookies.  The O's are building for a World Series run in 2024.   I think they keep their good players like Santander and add not subtract.

You have the clear the logjam. Recover what you can with the departure of your good but not elite talent. Santander and Hayes are both of the good but not great type. Allowing him to get to free agency would do a disservice to their long term plan.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

This makes waayyy too much sense not to happen.  They need to free one outfield spot at least, and this would do it.

Should probably move both … Hays is a product of the other management team. He’s a low OBP guy and probably isn’t getting any better than this year. So his value is in the 2 years of remaining control. Mullins is also a free agent in the same period but was still a 2.8 war player despite his struggle with injuries and streaky traits. Plus I don’t think we currently don’t have his replacement at or nearly ready for CF. If Kjerstad and Cowser can handle LF and RF defensively it’s time to move+on from Santander and Hays. 

[wildcard]

I would much rather trade Mountcastle and move Santander to be 1B/RF with O'Hearn.  That opens playing time at RF/DH.  Santander too hard to replace.

Mancini was not a 30 HR/95 RBI player when he was trade.    Kjerstad/Cowser/Mayo are unlikely to produce at that level in their rookie year.  O's going for a WS win in 2024

[zweem]

With both Kjerstad/Cowser replacing Hays/Santander, we would see an awful lot of LHP.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I would much rather trade Mountcastle and move Santander to be 1B/RF with O'Hearn.  That opens playing time at RF/DH.  Santander too hard to replace.

Mancini was not a 30 HR/95 RBI player when he was trade.    Kjerstad/Cowser/Mayo are unlikely to produce at that level in their rookie year.  O's going for a WS win in 2024

Urias or Mateo likely need to be gone by June of next year.

Mounty, Santander, Hays, Mullins, OHearn…My preference is to see 2 of them gone this offseason with my larger desire to keep Hays more than anyone on that list. Mullins is a close second.

That is a total of 3 vets that I feel need to be gone by June of 2024. That should open up plenty of ABs for the players that need to get those ABs.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Sports Guy

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Urias or Mateo likely need to be gone by June of next year.

Mounty, Santander, Hays, Mullins, OHearn…My preference is to see 2 of them gone this offseason with my larger desire to keep Hays more than anyone on that list. Mullins is a close second.

That is a total of 3 vets that I feel need to be gone by June of 2024. That should open up plenty of ABs for the players that need to get those ABs.

The 3 vets that I can see replaced are Frazier, Urias and Mounty.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The 3 vets that I can see replaced are Frazier, Urias and Mounty.

Frazier is gone, so he is already part of the equation.

[RZNJ]

The Orioles aren’t going for a WS in 2024.  They’re trying to make the playoffs every year and then, who knows.   Elias isn’t playing for one year. He’s playing for the next 5+.   He’ll take the risk in 2024 if it fits into the 5+ year plan.   He’s aware of the short term but he’s playing the long game.   Can you argue that keeping Hays and Santander and relegating Kjerstad and Cowser to Norfolk/bench roles/wait for an injury plays into the long game?    Maybe but I don’t think so.

[wildcard]

42 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Orioles aren’t going for a WS in 2024.  They’re trying to make the playoffs every year and then, who knows.   Elias isn’t playing for one year. He’s playing for the next 5+.   He’ll take the risk in 2024 if it fits into the 5+ year plan.   He’s aware of the short term but he’s playing the long game.   Can you argue that keeping Hays and Santander and relegating Kjerstad and Cowser to Norfolk/bench roles/wait for an injury plays into the long game?    Maybe but I don’t think so.

You have got to be kidding.  The O's just won 101 games and almost no players of consequence are leaving.    They go into next year with 2 #1 starters potentially plus they get Means back.  They come out of 2023 with top 5 AL offenses and pitching with the opportunity to be better in each in 2024.

Not going for the World Series? BS!   They will not do what many want in signing big FAs but that is not how Elias improves.   He has build a Analytics and Player Development system that evaluates all the players in baseball and goes after the ones that his system can improve.

So while we and many other are looking at who the big names on the FA and Trade market  are Elias and company is planning to add what they need based on acquiring players they can improve.  

The O's big name in 2024 will be Gunnar, Adley, Bradish, GRod, Means.   The rookie for the most part will add depth and fill in when injuries or non performance hit.  2B and 3B are the best places for young player to get playing time.  Maybe a 4th starter.

I am sure Elias is planning to go deeper in the playoff next year and have a better shot at winning the World Series in 2024.

[NCRaven]

I think Elias is capable of thinking long and short-term at the same time.  You can subtract and add players at the same time to enhance both outcomes.  And, the level of Mountcastle dismissiveness on this board continues to amaze me.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think Elias is capable of thinking long and short-term at the same time.  You can subtract and add players at the same time to enhance both outcomes.  And, the level of Mountcastle dismissiveness on this board continues to amaze me.

He’s fine..he’s productive and he’s also replaceable.