Will Mayo outhit Mountcastle?

[Frobby]

Like a lot of posters (not all), I think Coby Mayo is most likely to end up at 1B.  So I have a simple question: do you think Mayo will be a better hitter than Mountcastle at the major league level?  And if so, when?

I find it a tricky question, in part because I haven’t completely figured out Mountcastle after watching him for 3+ years.  On the one hand, I sense that he hasn’t peaked yet and still has some upside.  On the other, his tendency to get overaggressive at the plate and his proneness to cold spells make me think that he’ll never blossom into an all out star. 

And then you have Mayo, who is clearly a more selective hitter than Mountcastle and has as much or more raw power.  I suspect his bat to ball skills are not quite as good as Mountcastle’s, but he still might have the higher OBP.

Personally my money’s on Mayo, and if a good trade offer involving Mountcastle came along, I’d be willing to move on it.

 

[emmett16]

Mayo looks like he could be special.   I think he will struggle at first, like he did in AAA.  He has big levers and it’ll take him time to get everything in sink against the highest level.  I think his 2024 MLB numbers will be kinda ugly.  I think he goes off in 2025 pretty much out of the gate.  Just like AAA, after 100-150 ABs he’ll adjust and rake.  I think they’ll keep him down at AAA for a good portion of the year.  

[Aristotelian]

Best guess is similar or better power, with significantly higher OBP. Yes, I think his average projection is better than Mountcastle with higher upside than downside.

[wildcard]

I think Mounty and O'Hearn begin the season sharing 1B.   Mayo at AAA working on his defense.   If Mounty or O'Hearn get injured or slump and Mayo is ready, then Mounty and OHearn have options.

[RZNJ]

He better hit better than Mountcastle.   Mayo became a monster last year by improving his plate discipline and utilizing the opposite field.   He’s not a sure thing but I think he’ll be better than Mountcastle across the board.  I think he’s got the most power of anyone in the organization.   

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Mounty and O'Hearn begin the season sharing 1B.   Mayo at AAA working on his defense.   If Mounty or O'Hearn get injured or slump and Mayo is ready, then Mounty and OHearn have options.

How ironic!   If I may quote a great Hangout poster from very recent history.

“You covered everything but answering the question.”

[Sports Guy]

Mountcastle MiL stats:

293/327/467/794

He was 21 and 22 years old in his 2 seasons in the upper minors.  At age 21, he had an 805 OPs in Bowie. At age 22, he had an 870 OPs in AAA in 2019, a season that saw the AAA offensive numbers skyrocket.

Mayo’s MiL stats:

279/384/523/907

His best year was 2023..he was 21 years old and played in AA and AAA. In AA his OpS was over 1000 and in AA, it was over 900. 
 

His exit velos are off the charts. He’s K’ing less, walking more and is now hitting for a better average as he moves up the chain.

A few years ago, I knew of 2 people who felt Mayo was the 3rd best prospect in the org…myself and Tony. 
 

I say all of this to simply answer Frobby’s question of, I would be shocked if he’s not a better hitter than Mounty and I think he will be better in 2024 if given the chance.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How ironic!   If I may quote a great Hangout poster from very recent history.

“You covered everything but answering the question.”

Thank you.  Thanks you very much.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I say all of this to simply answer Frobby’s question of, I would be shocked if he’s not a better hitter than Mounty and I think he will be better in 2024 if given the chance.

I think Mayo ultimately will be the better hitter, and it could even happen this year, but I won’t be “shocked” if he doesn’t turn out to be the better hitter, just because there’s rarely a 1:1 correlation between minor league and major league performance.  Unexpected stuff happens all the time.  

I wonder if Mountcastle would be a better (more selective) hitter today if the current player development folks had been in charge when he first entered our system.  He was still in AAA in Elias’ first year, but he’d already had a few years of poor training by then.  Hard to say.  
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think Mayo ultimately will be the better hitter, and it could even happen this year, but I won’t be “shocked” if he doesn’t turn out to be the better hitter, just because there’s rarely a 1:1 correlation between minor league and major league performance.  Unexpected stuff happens all the time.  

I wonder if Mountcastle would be a better (more selective) hitter today if the current player development folks had been in charge when he first entered our system.  He was still in AAA in Elias’ first year, but he’d already had a few years of poor training by then.  Hard to say.  
 

I don’t think he’s even drafted by this regime to develop him to begin with.

[Jim'sKid26]

If Mayo stays at 3B and continues to improve at the plate he is much more valuable than Mountcastle. I'm hoping he can have a Darrell Evans type of career. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think he’s even drafted by this regime to develop him to begin with.

Probably not.  He’s been a decent pick though, drafted 36th but with the 12th best rWAR of all that year’s 1st rounders.  

[ShoelesJoe]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wonder if Mountcastle would be a better (more selective) hitter today if the current player development folks had been in charge when he first entered our system.  
 

I don't think Elias & Co draft guys hoping to teach them plate discipline. They draft guys who already have plate discipline, and then teach them how to use that skill to be better ballplayers. Agree with SG that the current FO probably wouldn't have drafted Mountcastle in the first place. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I don't think Elias & Co draft guys hoping to teach them plate discipline. They draft guys who already have plate discipline, and then teach them how to use that skill to be better ballplayers. Agree with SG that the current FO probably wouldn't have drafted Mountcastle in the first place. 

Like DJ Stewart? 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Probably not.  He’s been a decent pick though, drafted 36th but with the 12th best rWAR of all that year’s 1st rounders.  

No question. I think he has value but I also think he’s not the type of hitter the current regime loves and I think he’s an under the radar prime trade candidate this offseason.