Orioles 2023 #5 Prospect Colton Cowser - OF

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Cowser still has a very high ceiling (1st division regular, maybe occasional all-star IMO), but his floor is a bit lower than previously thought.   Tony says if he can’t hit top velocity he couid be a lefthanded McKenna.  That would be an incredibly disappointing outcome.  

I’d really like to see Cowser on the OD roster and getting 400+ PA in 2024.

I'd be shocked if he was ever as good as McKenna defensively.  If he can't hit, his glove won't carry him like McKenna's does.

[Pickles]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People really blew his short time up here out of proportion. The overreacting to everything was a bit much.

He looked bad defensively.  Real bad.  Far worse than should have been expected.  That's not overreacting.  That's just an observation.

That said, in specific reference to his arm, he made a couple of nice throws and showed good arm strength.  He did not show good accuracy or positioning on his throws, but he clearly has a plus arm.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'd be shocked if he was ever as good as McKenna defensively.  If he can't hit, his glove won't carry him like McKenna's does.

I agree Cowser is probably not as good as McKenna defensively.  He’s more likely Hays-level, which is still pretty solid.  But his bat should be significantly better than McKenna’s, better enough that the defensive differential wouldn’t really be a big consideration.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He looked bad defensively.  Real bad.  Far worse than should have been expected.  That's not overreacting.  That's just an observation.

That said, in specific reference to his arm, he made a couple of nice throws and showed good arm strength.  He did not show good accuracy or positioning on his throws, but he clearly has a plus arm.

It’s an observation based on a SSS and ignored scouting reports and what has always been said about his defense. I don’t disagree that it wasn’t good but there are so many factors to that, just like Gunnar’s defense was an issue when he was hitting like poop early in the season.  
 

I also thought he got more comfortable as his time here went on.

Either way, people were and are ridiculously over the top about the small sample size. Just absurd post after absurd post about him.

He is the guy I would deal out of his best prospects but that’s simply because I like the 4 guys ahead of him better, not because I think he’s not any good or that his time here is some indication that we should be panicking about him.

[Pickles]

Just now, Frobby said:

I agree Cowser is probably not as good as McKenna defensively.  He’s more likely Hays-level, which is still pretty solid.  But his bat should be significantly better than McKenna’s, better enough that the defensive differential wouldn’t really be a big consideration.  

One would hope this is not a conversation we're having in 2 years.

While he should definitely hit better than McKenna, I don't think he has the glove to be carried as a 4th outfielder type if he doesn't.

McKenna is a plus OF, and I know I'm being biased by a small sample size, but Cowser just looked so bad in the OF last year it's hard to imagine he'll ever be that.

He has the raw tools, speed and arm, but there's more to the OF than  that.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s an observation based on a SSS and ignored scouting reports and what has always been said about his defense. I don’t disagree that it wasn’t good but there are so many factors to that, just like Gunnar’s defense was an issue when he was hitting like poop early in the season.  
 

I also thought he got more comfortable as his time here went on.

Either way, people were and are ridiculously over the top about the small sample size. Just absurd post after absurd post about him.

He is the guy I would deal out of his best prospects but that’s simply because I like the 4 guys ahead of him better, not because I think he’s not any good or that his time here is some indication that we should be panicking about him.

Scouting reports are all well and good, but scouts have been wrong before.  Even in the consensus.  Especially about defense in my experience.

I don't know how you define panicking, but he is not a guy I want getting extended time in CF at this point, and that is based on his observable defense from last year, despite what scouting reports said or say.

[interloper]

I'll never forget the camera showed Cowser after he botched some play out there and my dude looked upset. Like full on scared. Eyebrows raised, worried expression on his face, eyes darting around. Now... maybe that's just his face and he's totally confident internally. I don't know. But it was surprising. These prospects have all been extremely confident bordering on cocky, which is great. I didn't really see that with him in his time up here. By all accounts he's confident and outgoing and talented. I just remember that shot from the game and I was like... hm. 

I'm really interested to get a fuller picture of him this upcoming season. But for me, he's starting at AAA again. I would probably rather have Hilliard on the OD roster as the kind of replacement for Hicks. And let Cowser earn it again. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by interloper

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree Cowser is probably not as good as McKenna defensively.  He’s more likely Hays-level, which is still pretty solid.  But his bat should be significantly better than McKenna’s, better enough that the defensive differential wouldn’t really be a big consideration.  

A Hays comp defensively would be a GG finalist in RF.  I'll take that.  People wanted Cowser to come up here and be Nick Markakis 2.0.  Ok well he struggled.  But players aren't dead after that.  Look at Bradish and GR.  Even a guy like DL Hall.  Cowser will be alright.  

The question with Cowser is do we believe in him enough to trade Santa?

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Scouting reports are all well and good, but scouts have been wrong before.  Even in the consensus.  Especially about defense in my experience.

I don't know how you define panicking, but he is not a guy I want getting extended time in CF at this point, and that is based on his observable defense from last year, despite what scouting reports said or say.

He’s never been a viable everyday option for CF. 
 

Most scouting reports agree with that. 
 

On the corners, he’s fine and the arm is obviously strong. 

[Moose Milligan]

51 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m rooting for him to have a monster year in Baltimore too but I’ll admit that his SSS in the majors has me elevating Kjerstad above him and more willing to include Cowser in a trade.   

It's not like Kjerstad was some revelation, either.  I mean, he looked better but it's not like he really tore it up in his small sample size.  A couple homers got everyone all excited, but the bar set by Cowser was a low one to hurdle.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Pickles said:

 

McKenna is a plus OF, and I know I'm being biased by a small sample size, but Cowser just looked so bad in the OF last year it's hard to imagine he'll ever be that.

I agree Cowser was very disappointing in the OF last year in his short major league stint.  I’m still giving him the benefit of the doubt there.  He’s played literally ten times as many innings in the minors than the majors, so I have to trust the scouting reports based on a couple hundred games over what we saw in two dozen major league games.  He will be good enough to use in CF in a 4th OF situation.  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

People wanted Cowser to come up here and be Nick Markakis 2.0.  Ok well he struggled.  But players aren't dead after that.  Look at Bradish and GR.  Even a guy like DL Hall.  Cowser will be alright.  

Look no further than Markakis.   In his first month in the majors he hit .182/.270/.288.   

[RZNJ]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

It's not like Kjerstad was some revelation, either.  I mean, he looked better but it's not like he really tore it up in his small sample size.  A couple homers got everyone all excited, but the bar set by Cowser was a low one to hurdle.

Kjerstad didn’t look great but when he hit the ball he, for the most part, drove the ball.  I can only think of one ball Cowser drove with power and that was within his last 3-4 games on a line drive double into the RCF gap.  
 

Cowser has a lot more swing and miss in the minors and there might not be that much of a gap in defense.  Cowser might become the better player.  He might become a perennial all-star.  A lot of it can just be chalked up to growing pains.  He also struggled at Aberdeen and overcame it with flying colors.  I just feel like Kjerstad is a better bet and seeing them both in the majors, right or wrong, helped to form that opinion.

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s never been a viable everyday option for CF. 
 

Most scouting reports agree with that. 
 

On the corners, he’s fine and the arm is obviously strong. 

This is simply not true.  Many scouting reports said Cowser could probably handle CF at least for a few years.  Last November Tony said his ceiling was “starting CF”.

Per Fangraphs last offseason.

Cowser is still a “maybe” in center field, and historically those players find their way to a corner, usually because superior options tend to occupy the center field job on big league rosters. Reasonable minds can disagree about whether or not Cowser can actually play center, and if you think he can, he fits as a 50 FV prospect

Per Baseball America

Cowser might not be more than an average center fielder, but he can handle the position well thanks to his smooth motions and range as an above-average runner. He could be above-average in a corner spot, with at least an above-average arm. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by RZNJ

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's not like Kjerstad was some revelation, either.  I mean, he looked better but it's not like he really tore it up in his small sample size.  A couple homers got everyone all excited, but the bar set by Cowser was a low one to hurdle.

Yeah but it's the vibe mannnn. Gunnar didn't do much for a couple months but you could just feel it coming and there were other things to point to that suggested it was in there. I felt the same watching Kjerstad. Watching Cowser felt bad. The ABs were not enjoyable. Guy could barely get the ball out of the infield. You could just feel it wasn't his time yet. Not saying he won't eventually be fine. But give me the big chungus who can hit Eutaw St.