Orioles 2023 #5 Prospect Colton Cowser - OF

[Just Regular]

If it breaks bad from here, I think it'll feel like DJ Stewart, the sequel.     He knows the zone, but not enough juice in the bat against all these Driveline-enhanced velocities for it to play.     Hopefully the defense is more like Hays then Stewart, and the bigger minor league record supports that, though the MLB Stewart impression on both sides of the ball was "too good" last summer.

The AAA Las Vegas bomb was a nice note to end on.    I still think he has a chance to outplay Kjerstad enough to get Opening Day featured - I do believe one of Kjerstad or Cowser will get some lean from the org hoping to defend Gunnar's rookie of the year vs. Evan Carter, Junior Caminero, etc.      If whichever guy it is has a strong enough April, there may be a path to 600+ PA and the counting stats that accrue with it.

[interloper]

Just now, Just Regular said:

If it breaks bad from here, I think it'll feel like DJ Stewart, the sequel.     He knows the zone, but not enough juice in the bat against all these Driveline-enhanced velocities for it to play.     Hopefully the defense is more like Hays then Stewart, and the bigger minor league record supports that, though the MLB Stewart impression on both sides of the ball was "too good" last summer.

The AAA Las Vegas bomb was a nice note to end on.    I still think he has a chance to outplay Kjerstad enough to get Opening Day featured - I do believe one of Kjerstad or Cowser will get some lean from the org hoping to defend Gunnar's rookie of the year vs. Evan Carter, Junior Caminero, etc.      If whichever guy it is has a strong enough April, there may be a path to 600+ PA and the counting stats that accrue with it.

If Cowser had a comp dial, DJ Stewart would be on one end, and Nick Markakis would be on the other. Right now the needle is still in the middle, but... 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

He looked bad defensively.  Real bad.  Far worse than should have been expected.  That's not overreacting.  That's just an observation.

That said, in specific reference to his arm, he made a couple of nice throws and showed good arm strength.  He did not show good accuracy or positioning on his throws, but he clearly has a plus arm.

Cowser missed one ball that was a two-star catch or less which was this one while playing LF. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=41ec60ac-1810-4296-b636-74a0a90e3a54

Cowser was given just 16 games in LF in the minors and then asked to play 7 major league games in LF in the majors. if you want to blame anyone, blame Blood (managers play the lineups provided for the and only change if there is an injury or sickness) for playing him almost exclusively in CF and a bit if RF when he game translates to LF in Camden Yards.

He made this 3-star catch (75% catch probability) in CF: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=72ae2f61-3c35-4c4b-86b2-3242cbc99f15

Overall he didn't get great jumps but I think his "poor" defense is being way overplayed based on small sample sizes and couple of plays that may have not looked great but weren't either catchable or would have taken 3-5 star catches to make happen.

I watch him a decent amount in AAA and he's fine defensively. His 33.1 ft/sec covered is a little below average and why I don't think he's an everyday CF, but it was better than Austin Hays' 32.2 ft/sec so he so would be fine in LF with more experience out there.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

This is simply not true.  Many scouting reports said Cowser could probably handle CF at least for a few years.  Last November Tony said his ceiling was “starting CF”.

Per Fangraphs last offseason.

Cowser is still a “maybe” in center field, and historically those players find their way to a corner, usually because superior options tend to occupy the center field job on big league rosters. Reasonable minds can disagree about whether or not Cowser can actually play center, and if you think he can, he fits as a 50 FV prospect

Per Baseball America

Cowser might not be more than an average center fielder, but he can handle the position well thanks to his smooth motions and range as an above-average runner. He could be above-average in a corner spot, with at least an above-average arm. 

I like to add I said "ceiling" but his most likely was a corner outfielder defensively. Cowser can play center and not kill you, he's just not ideal.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I like to add I said "ceiling" but his most likely was a corner outfielder defensively. Cowser can play center and not kill you, he's just not ideal.

I used the word ceiling and was just responding to the poster who said he “was never a viable option in CF”.   I think most assumed he’d wind up in a corner but most held the belief  that he could or might be the Orioles CF at the beginning of his career.  It wasn’t dismissed as in “no chance he’s a ML CF”.

[btdart20]

Cowser's K% is concerning.  HK's splits are better.  That's enough to flip HK ahead of Cowser in my mind (i.e. HK improved more).  There were questions about Cowser handling LHP at the end of 2022 and Cowser responded as well as can be hoped.  His SSS debut wasn't good, but it was both a SSS and a debut.  He was given a taste and knows what he needs to work on.  He's overcome adversity in the past.  The high velo concerns is a new question (at least I don't recall that being a big/beyond-normal concern previously). 

I still think Cowser is a legit OFer and a viable Hays replacement (above-average all-around, occasional all-star, emergency CF) that carries some rookie risk.  His plate discipline/approach may just need to be more aggressive along the Gunnar path.  

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

People really blew his short time up here out of proportion. The overreacting to everything was a bit much.

Are you referring to Twitter/Facebook? From my recollection folks here were pretty level headed about adjustment period and small sample size. He did fail the eye test about as abysmally as he possibly could but I am fine with Tony's ranking at this spot.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Are you referring to Twitter/Facebook? From my recollection folks here were pretty level headed about adjustment period and small sample size. He did fail the eye test about as abysmally as he possibly could but I am fine with Tony's ranking at this spot.

Everywhere…including here.

[baltfan]

Cowser is odd. Coming out of college he was supposed to be a guy with great bat to ball skills and power concerns.  It seems those bat to ball skills never transferred.   Perhaps that’s because they tried to push him to be more selective.  

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Cowser is odd. Coming out of college he was supposed to be a guy with great bat to ball skills and power concerns.  It seems those bat to ball skills never transferred.   Perhaps that’s because they tried to push him to be more selective.  

Look at his numbers at Delmarva the year he was drafted.  That was the more contact oriented with little power hitter with selectivity.   They helped him turn himself into a hitter who could do damage, still hit for average, and remain selective BUT with more swing and miss.   A minor league success story.   Now, we have to see how the story unfolds at the ML level.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cowser000col

 

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I used the word ceiling and was just responding to the poster who said he “was never a viable option in CF”.   I think most assumed he’d wind up in a corner but most held the belief  that he could or might be the Orioles CF at the beginning of his career.  It wasn’t dismissed as in “no chance he’s a ML CF”.

Yeah, that probably came off as looking like I was telling you that, but I was just re-emphasizing that I said his ceiling was in CF, not his most likely outcome. 

[RZNJ]

Hope we can see this version in Baltimore this year.