Orioles 2023 #5 Prospect Colton Cowser - OF

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/15/2023-5-prospect-colton-cowser-of/

After tearing up AAA he got his first taste of the big leagues and struggled pretty badly in all aspects of the game. Went back to AAA and struggled as well, but he still has all the tools to become a solid major league every day outfielder.

Colton Cowser
Pos: Outfielder
Bats: L
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2023 Level: AAA/Maj

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/55
Game Power: 45/50
Raw Power: 50/55
Run: 55/55
Defense: 50/55

Most Likely Future Role: Starting corner outfielder
Ceiling: Starting center fielder

What we know: Started the year off dominating AAA pitching for a .330/.459/.537/.996 in 257 PAs over 56 games before getting a promotion to Baltimore. He made five starts before the All-Star break and then came back and it was like he forgot how to hit. Slashed just .089/.250/.133/.383 over his next 56 PAs before mercifully getting demoted back to Norfolk in mid-August.

Unfortunately, Cowser struggled with velocity and major league pitchers went right at him and once they found him cheating, they fooled him with offspeed pitches. He hit just .071 off fastballs and reportedly struggled with velocity in the minors as well. The hope is it's not a bat speed issue, just that he has an overly passive approach as he works counts and gets behind too often in counts, especially at the major league level where you have to prove you can hurt them with some pop.

Perhaps due to his confidence getting shaken, he slashed just .233/.318/.459/.777 with an alarming 53 strike outs in 155 PAs upon his return to AAA.

While he didn't have a huge platoon difference in 2023, he struggles against left-handed breaking balls at times.

Before his major league experience, Cowser showed power to all fields and the ability to work counts and draw walks. When he swings, he makes good hard contact consistently and can drive the ball gap to gap. He had a 109 MPH line drive home run to RF and several 400 foot plus home runs including a few to left center. He seems to feast on sinkers and offspeed pitches and was able to take advantage of the auto strike zone was his plus-plus knowledge of the strike zone.

Defensively Cowser has all the tools including a plus-plus arm to be a solid defensive outfielder despite some of his passiveness at the major league level. He doesn't have the top end speed that teams would prefer in center field, so a move to LF in Camden Yards could be a natural fit. He comes in well on balls and made several highlight catches in AAA along with making one 3-star catch at the major league level. He can play center field but probably best suited for a corner outfield position.

He's an above average runner when he's on the move but does not have that quick first-step speed that will allow him to steal a lot of bases.

What we don't know: For two years now the same concern has reared up, and it's fair to have concerns over his ability to hit upper level velocity at this point. The hope is that he just needs to make some adjustments, be more aggressive early in counts, and learn to use his lower half better and that it's not a bat speed issue. He's a better defensive outfielder than he showed in his major league time, but if he can stick in center and be effective, it puts less strain on his bat. If he can't hit upper level velocity, he could end up a left-handed version of Ryan McKenna.

What we think: Cowser is pretty much a finished product and now just needs to show he can hit velocity in order to fulfill his promise of being an everyday o

[LookinUp]

Do they have public data on bat speed or is that only measured through tools like blast motion?

The O's certainly know his bat speed, and how it compares to others. Hopefully he can figure it out.

[wildcard]

The pop up ads are ridiculous.   Had to copy the article and paste it to read it.

[Aristotelian]

Tony, I am curious where you get plus plus arm? I did not notice him flash anything special with his arm and MLB.com has him as a 55. 

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Tony, I am curious where you get plus plus arm? I did not notice him flash anything special with his arm and MLB.com has him as a 55. 

This is not so much for you but for everyone else who actually looks at the MLB.com scouting scores like they mean anything more than entertainment value.

So if you don't want to trust my judgement over the knuckleheads that do the MLB.com scouting scores, then maybe some data will help.

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The pop up ads are ridiculous.   Had to copy the article and paste it to read it.

Thanks, I'm not seeing any but there should be no pop up ads. I'm changing providers here in a bit anyways so that should be solved.

[sportsfan8703]

Cowser could be the OD 1:1 replacement for Santander next year.  Right now it's looking like he'll take over Hicks' role.  It might hurt us in April-July, but would it be better August+ to just trade Santander, give Cowser all the ABs, and have the prospects that Santa would bring back in a trade.  

From a long term perspective... It might be the right thing to do to have Cowser and Kjerstad split up the Santa and Hicks roles.  Then have Hilliard take over for Mckenna.  That's a lot of lefties though.  This is all risky considering we're trying to defend the AL East crown and win the WS, but just like with Gunnar last year... It's not about April, it's about where we are in September.  We just cant dig too deep of a hole early on hoping these guys produce early.  

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is not so much for you but for everyone else who actually looks at the MLB.com scouting scores like they mean anything more than entertainment value.

So if you don't want to trust my judgement over the knuckleheads that do the MLB.com scouting scores, then maybe some data will help.

I trust your judgment but appreciate the extra data point and explanation. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm really rooting for Cowser to have a monster year in Baltimore this year for a couple reasons.  Obviously, it'll make the Orioles better.  Second, I'd like to see the change of attitude around here from posters who were so quick to write him off or include him in hypothetical trades based off his small sample size.  

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Tony, I am curious where you get plus plus arm? I did not notice him flash anything special with his arm and MLB.com has him as a 55. 

People really blew his short time up here out of proportion. The overreacting to everything was a bit much.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm really rooting for Cowser to have a monster year in Baltimore this year for a couple reasons.  Obviously, it'll make the Orioles better.  Second, I'd like to see the change of attitude around here from posters who were so quick to write him off or include him in hypothetical trades based off his small sample size.  

I’m rooting for him to have a monster year in Baltimore too but I’ll admit that his SSS in the majors has me elevating Kjerstad above him and more willing to include Cowser in a trade.   

[Frobby]

I think Cowser still has a very high ceiling (1st division regular, maybe occasional all-star IMO), but his floor is a bit lower than previously thought.   Tony says if he can’t hit top velocity he couid be a lefthanded McKenna.  That would be an incredibly disappointing outcome.  

I’d really like to see Cowser on the OD roster and getting 400+ PA in 2024.

[interloper]

Cowser is in the category I like to call "annoying prospect". Lol. 

His MLB stint shouldn't be overemphasized, but at the same time, it's hard to not see a guy absolutely falling on his face and in some instances looking kind of scared playing defense, and not have some concern. Guys adjust to the majors in different ways and at different speeds, so again, I'm mostly writing it off. 

But there's enough little pieces of concern about his game that I now find him kind of frustrating. I just kind of don't see how he's going to have that much success striking out as much as he does. And his defense was really pretty shocking at times - far from what was advertised, which already was iffy. 

I think overall he still deserves this #5 spot based on his ceiling, but it's tenuous. He needs to really pop off next season or he's going to slip HARD in future rankings. I would look to trade him, personally. Kjerstad may have less defensive ability, but he looks steady enough for a COF and I much, much prefer his offensive profile. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by interloper

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m rooting for him to have a monster year in Baltimore too but I’ll admit that his SSS in the majors has me elevating Kjerstad above him and more willing to include Cowser in a trade.   

I’ll admit, when I went to spring training last year I was much more impressed with Kjerstad’s bat than Cowser’s.   Obviously that was a tiny sample, but Kjerstad really looked comfortable up there, while Cowser seemed to be adjusting.  

I’m still a bit torn between them because Cowser has better defensive skills, though he didn’t show it in his brief major league tenure.   I think Kjerstad will be the better hitter but Cowser still might be the better overall player.  TBD.
 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll admit, when I went to spring training last year I was much more impressed with Kjerstad’s bat than Cowser’s.   Obviously that was a tiny sample, but Kjerstad really looked comfortable up there, while Cowser seemed to be adjusting.  

I’m still a bit torn between them because Cowser has better defensive skills, though he didn’t show it in his brief major league tenure.   I think Kjerstad will be the better hitter but Cowser still might be the better overall player.  TBD.
 

Kjerstad just gives immediate "major leaguer" vibes with his bat. We all know it when we see it. We saw it with Gunnar. Just looks like he's ready to contribute. No fear in the box, just relaxed and looking the part. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by interloper