Cease vs everyone else

[StottyByNature]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

That's fair.  If he's offered a QO, he's accepting the QO.  The draft pick doesn't really factor in.  It's all about the team control of Santander in that path.

It will be interesting to see.  I could see another team offering him 3/45 and him taking that financial security over the QO.  This assumes his 2024 is on par with his last couple of years.

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

That's fair.  If he's offered a QO, he's accepting the QO.  The draft pick doesn't really factor in.  It's all about the team control of Santander in that path.

I'm not sure I agree with that.  If he puts up another 30 Hr 30 2b season, he'd be looking at multiyear deals that far outstripped 20 in total value.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

It will be interesting to see.  I could see another team offering him 3/45 and him taking that financial security over the QO.  This assumes his 2024 is on par with his last couple of years.

I think 3/45 would be the lowend of what he's looking at with another "typical" season, and yeah, I think he'd take that over 1/20.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

It will be interesting to see.  I could see another team offering him 3/45 and him taking that financial security over the QO.  This assumes his 2024 is on par with his last couple of years.

He doesn’t get to wait to decide.  He’s got a couple of days to decide whether to take the QO, and won’t know if some team is going to offer him a multi-year deal.   

I think he can watch what happens this winter with Teoscar Hernandez and get a sense of what his market will look like.  Of course, it also depends what kind of season Santander has in 2024.   Hernandez has had a better career than Santander but had a down season this year before hitting free agency.  
 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think 3/45 would be the lowend of what he's looking at with another "typical" season, and yeah, I think he'd take that over 1/20.

We did a poll earlier this offseason and most people said 3/$50 mm or more.  I said probably 4/$75 mm or more, based on a comp with Castellanos, who got 5/$100 mm.  Of course, all contingent on Santander having a similar season in 2024 to 2022/23.  

 

[Pickles]

Just now, Frobby said:

We did a poll earlier this offseason and most people said 3/$50 mm or more.  I said probably 4/$75 mm or more, based on a comp with Castellanos, who got 5/$100 mm.  Of course, all contingent on Santander having a similar season in 2024 to 2022/23.  

 

I remember that thread, and I believe I said 4/80, which others suggested was too high, and perhaps with hindsight they were correct.

I'm still fairly confident, if Santander has another season as he has the last two, he'd get a multi-year deal that made turning down the QO the smart thing to do.

Something I think that would lend to that is something that hasn't been discussed, but he would in this hypothetical hit the market being viewed as a "winner"/a "winning player."  He would be seen as a young vet leader that was instrumental in one of the historic turnarounds the game has ever seen.  It's not everything, but it's something.  Nobody is going to have to worry about fitting in the clubhouse, or committed to winning, etc.

[Sports Guy]

36 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm not sure I agree with that.  If he puts up another 30 Hr 30 2b season, he'd be looking at multiyear deals that far outstripped 20 in total value.

But let’s say he can get a 3/50 deal but can make 21ishM in 2025. I could see him taking that and betting that in 2026-2027 that he could make 30M or more and perhaps a longer term deal than that.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Beavers was 6’4” 206 at age 21/22 last year. How long do you think he’s going to stay that size?  He might be able to play some LF right now in OPACY, but he won’t be 22 and 206 lbs in 2025’+

Is there something that prevents a bigger guy from playing center?  Heck, Judge played a lot of CF at 6'7"/ 280ish last year.  A lot of bigger guys have played center field, Dave Winfield, Mike Trout and Byron Buxton come to mind immediately.  Buxton isn't playing center now because of his repeated injuries not because of his ability.

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

But let’s say he can get a 3/50 deal but can make 21ishM in 2025. I could see him taking that and betting that in 2026-2027 that he could make 30M or more and perhaps a longer term deal than that.

Maybe.  Players tend to like longer contracts and more guaranteed money for a number of reasons.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Maybe.  Players tend to like longer contracts and more guaranteed money for a number of reasons.

Sure but betting on themselves isn’t uncommon either.

Either way, I would not be making any AS decision with thought that the would walk away from a QO.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but betting on themselves isn’t uncommon either.

Either way, I would not be making any AS decision with thought that the would walk away from a QO.

It's a factor to consider but is no certainty, and isn't crazy valuable anyway.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, StottyByNature said:

I actually think Santander is a prime QO candidate.  You either get a comp pick for him or you slightly overpay for a year of his prime.  Keeps payroll flexibility while maintaining an important player on the team, or get some value if he walks.  I don't think he'd garner much in the trade market so I'm happy to hang on to him.

I agree with btdart20 that if Santander is offered a QO, he'll take it, and right away 20% of a $100 million active payroll is tied up in one player.  It is hard to justify risking that happening for a player you believe won't garner much in the trade market.  It's also hard to see Santander improving to the point where $20 million is warranted in light of all the other options.

Elias doesn't strike me as someone likely to gamble that way.  If he doesn't trade Santander this offseason then it's because he believes he will provide $12 million worth of value in 2024.

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but betting on themselves isn’t uncommon either.

Either way, I would not be making any AS decision with thought that the would walk away from a QO.

Agree with the above.  He’s going to play next year @ 29y/o.  A one year contract for a productive 30y/o wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.  I think the O’s are in a win/win position with him.   He’s likely to produce the next two years.  If he does and walks we get a pick, if he doesn’t and stays we get solid production, at market value, from a guy that can cover a couple positions.  

[jerios55]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but betting on themselves isn’t uncommon either.

Either way, I would not be making any AS decision with thought that the would walk away from a QO.

Santander would be an interesting case.  His health has been better in recent years, but there has been enough to keep him off the field that I could see the longer deal being more appealing.  

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I agree with btdart20 that if Santander is offered a QO, he'll take it, and right away 20% of a $100 million active payroll is tied up in one player.  It is hard to justify risking that happening for a player you believe won't garner much in the trade market.  It's also hard to see Santander improving to the point where $20 million is warranted in light of all the other options.

Elias doesn't strike me as someone likely to gamble that way.  If he doesn't trade Santander this offseason then it's because he believes he will provide $12 million worth of value in 2024.

Isn’t the value of WAR ~$8MM this year?  At 3.0 WAR he was worth $24MM this year.  I think he has just about hit his ceiling, but I could see him bumping up to a 3.5 WAR player the next couple of years.