Cease vs everyone else

[Warehouse]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I like how one of them points out that he saw a list of top 100 guys and Ortiz fell off of it yet he doesn’t say which list it was and where that list had him to begin with.

It seems to be from Nae’s list. And no, I can’t provide any reasons why someone should give Nae’s opinions any credence.

https://medium.com/@NaeNaeTakes/mlb-top-100-prospects-2024-offseason-update-986fc61e1e4f

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Warehouse said:

It seems to be from Nae’s list. And no, I can’t provide any reasons why someone should give Nae’s opinions any credence.

https://medium.com/@NaeNaeTakes/mlb-top-100-prospects-2024-offseason-update-986fc61e1e4f

Whose list?  lol 

[interloper]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Getz can pick one and suck it.  

That's why I think Cease starts the season on the White Sox, no one's budging.  Elias and the Orioles certainly aren't and I don't think any of the other teams out there are suddenly going to cave to trading their best prospect or two for Cease.  He's good, but he's not THAT good.  

Getz can roll into the 2024 season with Cease as his OD starter.  While it probably makes more sense for him to trade Cease, it appears as if he's comfortable keeping him, too.

If a Cease trade actually does happen, we'll immediately know who caved by the prospects going back to Chicago.  If they're highly regarded, highly ranked, whichever team on the other side caved.  If it's more guys that are mid-tier and it's more quantity than quality, Getz came around.

Right. Elias is under no pressure to cave. He gets paid to make sure the team is competitive long term, not to blow it all out and make a run at the World Series. That might suck for fans, but it's the truth. He's just trying to get into the playoffs as many years in a row as possible.

I imagine from his perspective, if he gets Cease for a reasonable package, great. If he doesn't, he still fields a competitive team and has all his pieces. Fans might care, but it's not his job to worry about that. The only thing he HAD to do to continue to field a competitive team was fill the Felix hole, and he did that quickly.

He could fill the Gibson hole with a cheap FA or internally. The team will be good regardless. There is literally no pressure on Elias right now, which is why the ball will be in Getz's court indefinitely. And why a lot of people aren't buying that Cease ends up going anywhere. Nobody is really that desperate to have Cease. 

Edited January 10 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

I’m one who believes Westburg and Ortiz could provide similar on field value, albeit likely in different ways.

However, I’m also of the belief that Westburg currently has similar value to Cowser and Kjerstad, 2 top 35ish prospects.

I can’t see trading 2 of those guys plus more to get Cease.

Westburg, Norby, Beavers and Povich. That’s the offer Im putting on the table.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Westburg should be viewed as more than just a prospect now. He has 6 years of control remaining, but he already has 228 MLB PA with league average offense and well above average defense. And that was without really tapping into the power that he had a long track record of in the minors. 

Steamer projects him for about 3 WAR over a full 600 PA season and ZiPS projects him for about 2 WAR. You could easily say 6 years of a 2-3 WAR player right now (with upside for more if the power shows up) is worth more than Cease straight up, with Cease being projected for about 3 WAR next year and with only one additional year of control remaining (at about $16M). 

If the Orioles are including Westburg, they certainly should not be including Cowser/Kjerstad along with him. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Right. Elias is under no pressure to cave. He gets paid to make sure the team is competitive long term, not to blow it all out and make a run at the World Series. That might suck for fans, but it's the truth. He's just trying to get into the playoffs as many years in a row as possible.

I imagine from his perspective, if he gets Cease for a reasonable package, great. If he doesn't, he still fields a competitive team and has all his pieces. Fans might care, but it's not his job to worry about that. The only thing he HAD to do to continue to field a competitive team was fill the Felix hole, and he did that quickly.

He could fill the Gibson hole with a cheap FA or internally. The team will be good regardless. There is literally no pressure on Elias right now, which is why the ball will be in Getz's court indefinitely. And why a lot of people aren't buying that Cease ends up going anywhere. Nobody is really that desperate to have Cease. 

I think this take is more accurate than not, except if he never moves assets that can't reach the major leagues because they're ultimately blocked, that would be a management failure.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Westburg should be viewed as more than just a prospect now. He has 6 years of control remaining, but he already has 228 MLB PA with league average offense and well above average defense. And that was without really tapping into the power that he had a long track record of in the minors. 

Steamer projects him for about 3 WAR over a full 600 PA season and ZiPS projects him for about 2 WAR. You could easily say 6 years of a 2-3 WAR player right now (with upside for more if the power shows up) is worth more than Cease straight up, with Cease being projected for about 3 WAR next year and with only one additional year of control remaining (at about $16M). 

If the Orioles are including Westburg, they certainly should not be including Cowser/Kjerstad along with him. 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Right. Elias is under no pressure to cave. He gets paid to make sure the team is competitive long term, not to blow it all out and make a run at the World Series. That might suck for fans, but it's the truth. He's just trying to get into the playoffs as many years in a row as possible.

I imagine from his perspective, if he gets Cease for a reasonable package, great. If he doesn't, he still fields a competitive team and has all his pieces. Fans might care, but it's not his job to worry about that. The only thing he HAD to do to continue to field a competitive team was fill the Felix hole, and he did that quickly.

He could fill the Gibson hole with a cheap FA or internally. The team will be good regardless. There is literally no pressure on Elias right now, which is why the ball will be in Getz's court indefinitely. And why a lot of people aren't buying that Cease ends up going anywhere. Nobody is really that desperate to have Cease. 

I’m sure that’s his perspective, but I disagree that there shouldn’t be pressure on him. He tanked for 3 years and seemingly planned on a 4th - when you do that I don’t think that we should be shooting to win an average of 54% of our games or whatever the Mariners GM was saying, we should be winning 95+ for the foreseeable future. And with our payroll and excess of prospects that should absolutely be possible.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Westburg, Norby, Beavers and Povich. That’s the offer Im putting on the table.

That's a good package.  A strong middle infielder, a middle infielder/outfielder, good outfield and a pitcher.  That could set the White Sox up nicely for their rebuild.

Meanwhile, in Chicago...

 

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

17 minutes ago, interloper said:

Right. Elias is under no pressure to cave. He gets paid to make sure the team is competitive long term, not to blow it all out and make a run at the World Series. That might suck for fans, but it's the truth. He's just trying to get into the playoffs as many years in a row as possible.

I imagine from his perspective, if he gets Cease for a reasonable package, great. If he doesn't, he still fields a competitive team and has all his pieces. Fans might care, but it's not his job to worry about that. The only thing he HAD to do to continue to field a competitive team was fill the Felix hole, and he did that quickly.

He could fill the Gibson hole with a cheap FA or internally. The team will be good regardless. There is literally no pressure on Elias right now, which is why the ball will be in Getz's court indefinitely. And why a lot of people aren't buying that Cease ends up going anywhere. Nobody is really that desperate to have Cease. 

Where does Westburg play longterm if the best overall IF starting pretty soon is,

SS - Gunnar

2B - Holliday

3B - Mayo

We'd still have Ortiz for UTIL

[interloper]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Where does Westburg play longterm if the best overall IF starting pretty soon is,

SS - Gunnar

2B - Holliday

3B - Mayo

We'd still have Ortiz for UTIL

I'm not saying he never trades anybody, just that he still has time to clear backlog, and he's not under any real pressure to try and appease Chicago. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm not saying he never trades anybody, just that he still has time to clear backlog, and he's not under any real pressure to try and appease Chicago. 

Mayo as the long-term 3B is by no means a given, either. 1B/RF/DH all could be in play. I think Westburg very much looked the part and I'd be upset if he's not here for the long-term. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Where does Westburg play longterm if the best overall IF starting pretty soon is,

SS - Gunnar

2B - Holliday

3B - Mayo

We'd still have Ortiz for UTIL

There are questions about Mayo's ability to stick at 3B and Westburg could also chip in some starts in LF, which I think he has the speed needed to play at OPACY. His long term role here could even be as Cowser's platoon partner in LF if CC's struggles against lefties continue, while also filling in as needed around the IF on other days.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's a good package.  A strong middle infielder, a middle infielder/outfielder, good outfield and a pitcher.  That could set the White Sox up nicely for their rebuild.

Meanwhile, in Chicago...

 

 

 

What Getz is really afraid of: 

 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Mayo as the long-term 3B is by no means a given, either. 1B/RF/DH all could be in play. I think Westburg very much looked the part and I'd be upset if he's not here for the long-term. 

I’m also higher on Westburg than Ortiz or Norby, and I think Mayo slots in at 1B or RF long term, but I’m sure we’ll value and make use of his position flexibility with some starts at 3rd too.

not sure why it can’t be:

1B/3B Mayo, 2b/SS holliday, 2b/ss/3B westburg, SS/3B Gunnar for 4 spots, with whoever is not traded at the utility role. This team has shown it really values that flexibility, and I think we’ll see it more with these infielders, Basallo in a DH/backup C role, and some of these infielders playing COF from time to time.

Edited January 10 by brooooksy