Cease vs everyone else

[banks703]

28 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

That is too much. McDermott could easily be as good as Cease. 

My interpretation of the word easily is much different than your interpretation of it. 

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Wait.  When I said I would do Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich and basically got a lot of hell no.  SG proposes Westburg, Norby, Beavers, and Povich and a lot more people to be on board with it.  Interesting.   I like Westburg a lot.  I think the second package is giving up as much value if not more.

For me it's simple.   I'm only willing to give up one of the players I expect to help us this year.   So the WS can only get one of Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg/Ortiz.  I'm more open to trading additional guys who are further away,  like Beavers or 2nd tier guys like Norby.  

The package matters too of course.  If they take Cowser or Kjerstad, then I want to keep Beavers for example. 

[interloper]

50 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

That is too much. McDermott could easily be as good as Cease. 

Agree with your first sentence. Lost me on the second one though. 

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is kind of an interesting exercise. I found that for me, it's more like:

Tier 1- Holliday, Basallo

Tier 2- Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser

Tier 2.5- Westburg

Tier 3- Ortiz, Povich, Beavers, McDermott, Norby, Fabian, Horvath

And so on.

Had a bit of trouble deciding where to place Westburg- he felt too good and too "proven" to place down with the Norby's and Povich's but not quite good enough to place among the Mayo's and Cowser's, thus his own little sub-tier.

I would not trade anyone above Tier 2.5 for Cease and I would not budge, but I would be willing to include guys from Tier 2.5 on down.

 

I would switch Cowser and Westburg 

[Roll Tide]

33 minutes ago, banks703 said:

My interpretation of the word easily is much different than your interpretation of it. 

Yeah ….he could be but not easily

[btdart20]

46 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is kind of an interesting exercise. I found that for me, it's more like:

Tier 1- Holliday, Basallo

Tier 2- Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser

Tier 2.5- Westburg

Tier 3- Ortiz, Povich, Beavers, McDermott, Norby, Fabian, Horvath

And so on.

Had a bit of trouble deciding where to place Westburg- he felt too good and too "proven" to place down with the Norby's and Povich's but not quite good enough to place among the Mayo's and Cowser's, thus his own little sub-tier.

I would not trade anyone above Tier 2.5 for Cease and I would not budge, but I would be willing to include guys from Tier 2.5 on down.

 

I wonder if Elias weighs the ceiling more than the timeline, especially for position players?

So a guy like Beavers or Horvath could possibly be ranked higher than an HK or Cowser.  

Proximity, performance at a higher competition level, and sample size matters but that’s not all.

[foxfield]

If the  Chicago price holds. The Orioles would be much better off going after a FA SP. But it does feel like the Orioles are in a position where they should do something. 
 

Personally I’d rather move one of Hays/Santander and or one of Mountcastle/O’Hearn and or one of Urias/Mateo.  For the best pitching you can get regardless of level. 
 

Sign a FA SP and one or two relief arms and roll. 
 

Edit to add:  However I still have faith Elías will get something done. 

Edited January 10 by foxfield

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Wait.  When I said I would do Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich and basically got a lot of hell no.  SG proposes Westburg, Norby, Beavers, and Povich and a lot more people to be on board with it.  Interesting.   I like Westburg a lot.  I think the second package is giving up as much value if not more.

In a neutral context, Kjerstad & Ortiz are together probably close in value to Westburg, Norby and Beavers. But the Orioles have significantly greater 2025+ needs in the OF than the IF and keeping the superior OF prospects is more valuable. Norby in particular has no future path to playing time as a 2B with the Orioles, and he’s a marginal prospect if he’s only a corner OF. 

I like Beavers plenty but prefer both Kjerstad and Cowser by a wide margin. The margin is much smaller between Westburg and Ortiz.  I’d rather keep Kjerstad/Cowser over Beavers at the cost of giving up Westburg instead of Ortiz, and given the Orioles’ many superior infielders, Norby doesn’t make up that difference. 

[Safelykept]

7 hours ago, ChicagoTerp said:

Are you saying we will re-sign Hicks? And that Sam Hilliard will make the roster over Kjerstad?

 

Not Hilliard, Def Hicks if somebody is traded (hays, santander) if he wants to play here.

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, foxfield said:

If the  Chicago price holds. The Orioles would be much better off going after a FA SP. But it does feel like the Orioles are in a position where they should do something. 
 

Personally I’d rather move one of Hays/Santander and or one of Mountcastle/O’Hearn and or one of Urias/Mateo.  For the best pitching you can get regardless of level. 
 

Sign a FA SP and one or two relief arms and roll. 
 

Edit to add:  However I still have faith Elías will get something done. 

That depends on whether Angelos has approved money to spend. I have my doubts there is enough left to do so.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

In a neutral context, Kjerstad & Ortiz are together probably close in value to Westburg, Norby and Beavers. But the Orioles have significantly greater 2025+ needs in the OF than the IF and keeping the superior OF prospects is more valuable. Norby in particular has no future path to playing time as a 2B with the Orioles, and he’s a marginal prospect if he’s only a corner OF. 

I like Beavers plenty but prefer both Kjerstad and Cowser by a wide margin. The margin is much smaller between Westburg and Ortiz.  I’d rather keep Kjerstad/Cowser over Beavers at the cost of giving up Westburg instead of Ortiz, and given the Orioles’ many superior infielders, Norby doesn’t make up that difference. 

Fair enough but if it's determined that Mayo is a RF it throws a wrench into your theory.   Cowser and Mayo as corner OF options starting this year.  Beavers ready sometime next year.   They If you trade Westburg and determine that Mayo is a RF, you're relying on Ortiz to come through.   Who's next up if he doesn't?   We have more OF prospects after last years draft than IF prospects.   

[Safelykept]

6 hours ago, ChicagoTerp said:

John - great to see you here. Put your money where your mouth is and go sign Snell, putting an end to this Cease madness.

6/180, 5/150 Elias probably steps in front of that

[Roll Tide]

@Sports Guy

Apparently Robert has hired Scott Boras. They are speculating that he might be on the way out.

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fair enough but if it's determined that Mayo is a RF it throws a wrench into your theory.   Cowser and Mayo as corner OF options starting this year.  Beavers ready sometime next year.   They If you trade Westburg and determine that Mayo is a RF, you're relying on Ortiz to come through.   Who's next up if he doesn't?   We have more OF prospects after last years draft than IF prospects.   

Everyone loves Ortiz though. Why the concern?

 He’s worth more to us than his trade value. Behind Ortiz, we have Horvath and Wagner. Gunnar and Holliday can both play SS.  Don’t underestimate Wagner and Horvath. We invested some pretty high draft capital in them. Norby could be a Zobrist type.  Play a passable LF and 2B. Especially as a RH bat to pair with Beavers, Kjerstad, Cowser, Holliday.

[foxfield]

11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

That depends on whether Angelos has approved money to spend. I have my doubts there is enough left to do so.

Well of course. I get that. I expect Elias will use every tool available to him. And I along with you and everyone else here would not be surprised if Angelos won’t allow shopping money.