Cease vs everyone else

[Frobby]

Here’s what Steamer says about 2024 ERA for our main guys and Cease:

Rodriguez 3.60

Bradish 3.86

Kremer 4.47

Means 4.41

Irvin 4.38

Wells 4.05

Cease 4.12

Figure maybe Cease’s ERA goes down with a better defense behind him.  He’d fall in as our no. 3 starter.   
 

 

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Here’s what Steamer says about 2024 ERA for our main guys and Cease:

Rodriguez 3.60

Bradish 3.86

Kremer 4.47

Means 4.41

Irvin 4.38

Wells 4.05

Cease 4.12

Figure maybe Cease’s ERA goes down with a better defense behind him.  He’d fall in as our no. 3 starter.   
 

 

[forphase1]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s what Steamer says about 2024 ERA for our main guys and Cease:

Rodriguez 3.60

Bradish 3.86

Kremer 4.47

Means 4.41

Irvin 4.38

Wells 4.05

Cease 4.12

Figure maybe Cease’s ERA goes down with a better defense behind him.  He’d fall in as our no. 3 starter.   
 

 

Exactly.   I'm fine for trading for him at a #3 value, which is about what I expect him to be.   But if the Sox are holding out for #1 or #2 type trade value, I'll pass. 

[Bemorewins]

On 11/21/2023 at 4:10 PM, Frobby said:

I think Bautista was extremely dominant but that his effect on the W-L record is exaggerated.  He blew 6 saves out of 39 chances, which isn’t a particularly good ratio.  The bullpen performance with him over the final 34 games was almost exactly the same as when he was there.   Now, do I think our bullpen is as good without Bautista as with him?  No, I’m not an idiot.  And Elias doesn’t think so either, and he’s said so.   So, I’m sure some steps will be taken to shore up the pen.  

But the point of my prior post is that the performance of our returning players won’t be stagnant.  Some guys will be better, some guys will be worse.   Some guys who spent most or all of 2023 in the minors will be much bigger contributors in 2024.   And some may totally flop.   So, what I’m saying is that these factors have a huge impact on how 2024 will go.   

Just to give an example, would it shock you if DL Hall was installed as the closer and did an above average job?   I don’t think we can bank on it, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise me much if that happened.   And stuff like that is likely to be the biggest factor in how the team does, IMO.

 

That wouldn’t shock me at all. But if that were to be the case that would still result in team regression because Bautista was very far from an “average closer”.

I don’t disagree with your general premise. It is most probable that some guys perform better (i.e. Gunnar if he doesn’t perform poorly for 2 months “adjusting” to big league pitching like he did last season) and some guys will most likely not perform as well. I’m just not a fan of standing pat and punting opportunities to make meaningful improvements especially if you are not the champs but that is your goal.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s ranked right around a bunch of the guys you mentioned.  He has high exit velo numbers, an outstanding glove at 3 positions and he will take a walk.

He has 3-4 WAR upside.

I just don’t see 4 WAR ceiling given his lack of game power.  I view him as a good defensive shortstop who will hopefully be a league average hitter.  If he can manage to hit like that, he’s probably a 2.5 win guy.  Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of value in that kind of player, but there is still a very real chance he’s replacement level or a 1 win guy you are constantly looking to upgrade on.

As I mentioned previously in this thread, I’d personally rank him in the lower end of a top 100 list.  Still a 50 FV type guy, but again, those players provide like to 2 to 3 wins total over their control period.  There seems to be a group here (not you) that feels prospects are bust-proof.  And apparently there is another group here (not you) that doesn’t understand how aging works.  This isn’t the steroid era, guys start trending down on average as they hit their 30’s.  Last year, there were two qualified SS’s over the age of 29 who exceeded 1 win.  Even if he hits, he’s probably got four or five years before he starts slowing down some.  That should be taken into consideration.

Again, Ortiz is a good prospect and I’d love to have him.  But as the centerpiece in a Dylan Cease trade?  I’d 100% aim for someone younger and with more ceiling.  And yes, I fully expect to get such a prospect.  The price for SP is absolutely insane right and someone is likely to pay up once the few TOR free agents sign their massive deals.

[Bemorewins]

On 11/22/2023 at 7:06 AM, Sports Guy said:

You aren’t getting Mayo for sure. That’s a nonstarter.

The Red Sox are the one team I see as potentially being dumb enough and desperate enough that you could land Mayer.  That’s definitely one I would be working on.  OTOH, the Red Sox can basically buy what they want, which is probably what they should do.

I tend to doubt they trade Mayer but would I say they are the one team likely in this race that could be dumb.

Otherwise, it looks like you are talking about a prospect that is more in the top 50…and that’s the same area Ortiz is in. Whether a guy is 44, 50 or 65, they are all very close. There is so little that separates them and let’s face it, those lists are more for discussion than anything else. 

IMO - The Red Sox should be viewed through a different prism than in the past. This is not the Red Sox of old who could outspend everyone sans the Yanks and carry a top 2/3 payroll in the sport. There is much more financial competition in the sport now than when the Red Sox had the bulk of their dynastic/multi championship run.

Back then the Pads, Rangers, Mets were not the big spending teams that they are or have the ability to be now. You also have the Braves and Phillies along with the Dodgers and Yanks to provide MAJOR competition to big time FAs. And that is not to mention the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Astros who can all spend as well.

The Red Sox May be able to land ONE singular top free agent pitcher. But what does that really do for them? IMO they will not become a serious contender by doing so. 

I’ve said this before, but they are really in the worse position that a professional sports franchise can be in. They are too good to be bad and too bad to be good. Major free agent spending can’t get them back to the top and in their market rebuilds are tough to sell.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just don’t see 4 WAR ceiling given his lack of game power.  

Ortiz had a .193 ISO in 2022, .186 last year in the minors.   I think he potentially has a bit more pop than you anticipate.  

That said, I agree the Sox will get a more highly regarded headliner than Ortiz for Cease.  

I’m kind of done debating it.  I think Cease’s odds of being traded are 85% and we’ll see what the market will bear.  I think he’s a good option for the O’s and that the O’s have more prospect talent available to trade than any other team.  This is an auction they can win if they choose, and we’ll see if they elect to go that way.  Cease is not the only option for the Orioles, and the Orioles are not the only option for the White Sox.  But they’re a good match.  

 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Long article but the conclusion is that the best indicator of future ERA is actually K-BB%, not any of the advanced stats. Though it is interesting that xFIP was slightly more predictive than FIP, though neither was very good. 
 

https://pitcherlist.com/the-relative-value-of-fip-xfip-siera-and-xera-pt-ii/

But all the stats (including K-BB%) that focus on what a pitcher can control are more predictive than prior year ERA.  

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I wouldn’t bother….the counterpoints are no longer logical.

I don’t see what counterpoints I’ve made that aren’t logical.  I’ve gone into detail using both intrinsic valuation and comps to highlight why I feel my trade proposal is reasonable.  People keep telling me it’s too much, but haven’t really provided me a compelling reason other than “ERA”.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just don’t see 4 WAR ceiling given his lack of game power.  I view him as a good defensive shortstop who will hopefully be a league average hitter.  If he can manage to hit like that, he’s probably a 2.5 win guy.  Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of value in that kind of player, but there is still a very real chance he’s replacement level or a 1 win guy you are constantly looking to upgrade on.

As I mentioned previously in this thread, I’d personally rank him in the lower end of a top 100 list.  Still a 50 FV type guy, but again, those players provide like to 2 to 3 wins total over their control period.  There seems to be a group here (not you) that feels prospects are bust-proof.  And apparently there is another group here (not you) that doesn’t understand how aging works.  This isn’t the steroid era, guys start trending down on average as they hit their 30’s.  Last year, there were two qualified SS’s over the age of 29 who exceeded 1 win.  Even if he hits, he’s probably got four or five years before he starts slowing down some.  That should be taken into consideration.

Again, Ortiz is a good prospect and I’d love to have him.  But as the centerpiece in a Dylan Cease trade?  I’d 100% aim for someone younger and with more ceiling.  And yes, I fully expect to get such a prospect.  The price for SP is absolutely insane right and someone is likely to pay up once the few TOR free agents sign their massive deals.

I mean,  Mateo was a 3WAR guy last year and he’s not even close to Ortiz overall. I know he isn’t likely to do it again but that level of defense and a 720-770 OPS at SS is worth a lot.

BTW, the age is the thing for me and why I can see not wanting him as a centerpiece for that level of pitcher.  I don’t have an issue with that thought. 
 

The thing is, I’m not sure they get a player to headline the deal that is ranked much higher than he is and judging by most of the players you said, I don’t think you do either.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t players ranked around the same spot that you would prefer because of his age. That makes sense to me.

If the market bears it, I have no issue with a Cowser/Ortiz deal. I’m just wondering if that’s what the market will bear. That’s really my only point in all of this.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just don’t see 4 WAR ceiling given his lack of game power.  I view him as a good defensive shortstop who will hopefully be a league average hitter.  If he can manage to hit like that, he’s probably a 2.5 win guy.  Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of value in that kind of player, but there is still a very real chance he’s replacement level or a 1 win guy you are constantly looking to upgrade on.

As I mentioned previously in this thread, I’d personally rank him in the lower end of a top 100 list.  Still a 50 FV type guy, but again, those players provide like to 2 to 3 wins total over their control period.  There seems to be a group here (not you) that feels prospects are bust-proof.  And apparently there is another group here (not you) that doesn’t understand how aging works.  This isn’t the steroid era, guys start trending down on average as they hit their 30’s.  Last year, there were two qualified SS’s over the age of 29 who exceeded 1 win.  Even if he hits, he’s probably got four or five years before he starts slowing down some.  That should be taken into consideration.

Again, Ortiz is a good prospect and I’d love to have him.  But as the centerpiece in a Dylan Cease trade?  I’d 100% aim for someone younger and with more ceiling.  And yes, I fully expect to get such a prospect.  The price for SP is absolutely insane right and someone is likely to pay up once the few TOR free agents sign their massive deals.

Lack of game power?  In 114 AAA games,  37 doubles, 6 triples, and 13 home runs.   He’s not a slap hitter by any means.   If his SS defense is as good as advertised and is a league average hitter he’s probably easily a 3 WIN player.   I’m not sure how his offense will translate to MLB but his AAA numbers are outstanding.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t see what counterpoints I’ve made that aren’t logical.  I’ve gone into detail using both intrinsic valuation and comps to highlight why I feel my trade proposal is reasonable.  People keep telling me it’s too much, but haven’t really provided me a compelling reason other than “ERA”.

Cease lost a mph off his fastball and the shape of his slider.  You say it’s simply a mechanical problem and fully expect him to rebound.   Well, he couldn’t make the adjustment all of last year so there’s plenty of reason to think he won’t rebound.

There’s risk the prospects won’t pan out and there’s risk that Cease won’t be any better than last year and could be worse if the fastball declines further or the slider regresses more.

It all comes down to what the market will bear.   

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just don’t see 4 WAR ceiling given his lack of game power.  I view him as a good defensive shortstop who will hopefully be a league average hitter.  If he can manage to hit like that, he’s probably a 2.5 win guy.  Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of value in that kind of player, but there is still a very real chance he’s replacement level or a 1 win guy you are constantly looking to upgrade on.

As I mentioned previously in this thread, I’d personally rank him in the lower end of a top 100 list.  Still a 50 FV type guy, but again, those players provide like to 2 to 3 wins total over their control period.  There seems to be a group here (not you) that feels prospects are bust-proof.  And apparently there is another group here (not you) that doesn’t understand how aging works.  This isn’t the steroid era, guys start trending down on average as they hit their 30’s.  Last year, there were two qualified SS’s over the age of 29 who exceeded 1 win.  Even if he hits, he’s probably got four or five years before he starts slowing down some.  That should be taken into consideration.

Again, Ortiz is a good prospect and I’d love to have him.  But as the centerpiece in a Dylan Cease trade?  I’d 100% aim for someone younger and with more ceiling.  And yes, I fully expect to get such a prospect.  The price for SP is absolutely insane right and someone is likely to pay up once the few TOR free agents sign their massive deals.

Point to anyone here that believes prospects are “bust-proof”. We had a farm system from Cal Ripken to the latest group  of guys that only produced a star in Mike Mussina, some solid players that included  guys that were decent MLB players but sagged from the star projections (McDonald, Wieters, Jeffrey Hammonds etc )that were given when drafted. I believe we had a 10-15 year stretch where we took a pitcher with our 1st rounder and most didn’t even make the MLB roster.

Most GM like to get a few projects in a deal in hopes that one hits. I have no idea if Elias wants to get Cease and how much of his ammo he’s willing to part with. I can say that I’d expect Elias to walk as opposed to overpay based on what we’ve seen. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Point to anyone here that believes prospects are “bust-proof”. We had a farm system from Cal Ripken to the latest group  of guys that only produced a star in Mike Mussina, some solid players that included  guys that were decent MLB players but sagged from the star projections (McDonald, Wieters, Jeffrey Hammonds etc )that were given when drafted. I believe we had a 10-15 year stretch where we took a pitcher with our 1st rounder and most didn’t even make the MLB roster.

Most GM like to get a few projects in a deal in hopes that one hits. I have no idea if Elias wants to get Cease and how much of his ammo he’s willing to part with. I can say that I’d expect Elias to walk as opposed to overpay based on what we’ve seen. 

You do have a RoY winner mixed in there.

Gregg Olson ERA+ as an Oriole.

123

224

158

126

195

281

That's a real nice stretch.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

You do have a RoY winner mixed in there.

Gregg Olson ERA+ as an Oriole.

123

224

158

126

195

281

That's a real nice stretch.

We hit on our no. 1 pick pretty nicely three years in a row with Olson, McDonald and Mussina.   McDonald underperformed his impossibly high expectations but Mussina overperformed by an equal amount.