Cease vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I can count the pitchers I would rather have over Cease on 2 hands, at least.

Have you still got all of your fingers?

[dystopia]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Have you still got all of your fingers?

Cease just isn't that good. I don't know why we need a thread about him every week.

[Roll Tide]

14 hours ago, Pickles said:

I'd rather have Sonny Gray.

Hell, would you rather have Cease vs. Gibson, Ortiz, and Cowser?

I'd take the latter group.

I like the idea of Gray also ….i don’t know what the salary projections are but I suspect it’s north of 3/75. Would the Orioles really pay that?

[wildcard]

My rooting favorite is Giolito.  FA not a trade.  Keep the prospects.   Not as expensive as the top tier.   He could be improved by O's coaches and defense.  No QO compensation.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

We have five seasons worth of data on Cease. He's essentially been a 4.00+ ERA pitcher for four of those seasons. Everything about his 2022 season points to it being an unstainable outlier. So trading for it would be foolish. 

This is a flawed way at looking at Cease or any SP for that matter.  First, ERA is a bad metric to evaluate pitchers IMO, especially ones who play in offensive-oriented parks and behind shitty defenses.  You need to adjust for those uncontrollable factors or you’ll be understating Cease’s production.

Second, Dylan’s pitch mix changed substantially in 2022 with much heavier usage of his slider.  That slider was the most valuable pitch in baseball in 2022 per Statcast and by wide margin.  Not sure you can luck your way into a pitch that dominant.  And what he did his first few seasons where he was still developing is mostly irrelevant to his go-forward expectations.

At the end of the day, GMs will have to decide whether Cease can regain the dominance of his slider.  My view is if you can spin a pitch to that ability over 180 innings, it doesn’t simply go away.  The spin rate on his slider last year was very similar to 2022, but the shape of it was different.  His command was also off and he wasn’t locating it quite as well.  The good news is his extension and release point were different last year and those are mechanical things than can be fixed.  

Obviously there is no guarantee there, but this why teams have biometric specialists to help identify such opportunities.  My guess is most front offices in need of SP see a TOR starter who they can get for 75 cents on the dollar.  It will require taking on some risk, but the price for two cheap years of a Cy Young type pitcher coming off a great season would be far higher than what Cease will ultimately go for.

And I haven’t seen it stated here, but Dylan is a guy who would almost certainly receive a QO after the 2025 season if healthy.  So on top of whatever he gives you, there is a strong chance (I’d put it at ~75% given his durability) of receiving a 1st round pick if he were leave in 2026.  That should also be reflected in the broader assessment.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Cease just isn't that good. I don't know why we need a thread about him every week.

How many good players were on the Orioles last year?  Because even in a down season, Cease would have ranked fourth on your team in fWAR.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Cease just isn't that good. I don't know why we need a thread about him every week.

I mean, this is just absurd. To say he isn’t good shows a total lack of knowledge, understanding and just general ignorance.

 

[elextrano8]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, this is just absurd. To say he isn’t good shows a total lack of knowledge, understanding and just general ignorance.

 

There's a big gulf between "isn't that good" and "isn't good" and it feels really disingenuous to drop the modifier to argue against it. In a rather vitriolic fashion, I might add.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, this is just absurd. To say he isn’t good shows a total lack of knowledge, understanding and just general ignorance.

 

I think Chicago White Sox rebuttal was a little more informative and nicer.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think Chicago White Sox rebuttal was a little more informative and nicer.

One person is a guest at the family gathering and the other is that uncle you hope doesn't get you backed into a corner so you can't get away when they start ranting about the government.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, elextrano8 said:

There's a big gulf between "isn't that good" and "isn't good" and it feels really disingenuous to drop the modifier to argue against it. In a rather vitriolic fashion, I might add.

You’re right…There is a difference.

And it’s  still an absurd comment.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

Cease just isn't that good. I don't know why we need a thread about him every week.

Because this thread is about who you like better.   

[elextrano8]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You’re right…There is a difference.

And it’s  still an absurd comment.

I miss when you were gone.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, elextrano8 said:

I miss when you were gone.

As if I care….use the ignore feature if your little feelings are getting hurt.

[dystopia]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, this is just absurd. To say he isn’t good shows a total lack of knowledge, understanding and just general ignorance.

 

That’s cool and all, but not what I said. He’s good, just not good enough to warrant a thread about trading for him every week, nor good enough to consider giving up one of our top prospects for him.