Comparing the OH Top 30 lists from 2022 and 2023

[Frobby]

I’ve been comparing Tony’s 2022 and 2023 top 30 lists to see which list is stronger.  I did a side by side matchup, and in my opinion (aided but not completely dictated by Tony’s grades), I think the 2022 list was a bit stronger, or at least, appeared to be at the time the list was compiled.  I have the 2022 class winning 21 of 30 matchups, with one tie.  I’ll go through all that in a later post.  

There are 17 players who appeared on both lists.  From last year’s top 30, Henderson, Rodriguez, Hall and Westburg graduated, while Hernaiz, Rom and Prieto were traded.   Falling off the list for performance reasons were Bencosme, Carter Young, Denoyer, Estrada, Haskin and Amparo.  In my opinion, of the 17 incumbents, 8 improved their profile (Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad, Beavers, McDermott, Tavera, Arias), 5 slipped (Norby, Povich, Baumler, Wagner and Fabian), and 4 stayed about the same (Cowser, Ortiz, Johnson and Bright).  Needless to say, some of those are debatable.  

As I’m sure many noticed, there was an  increase in international representation this year, with 9 international players on the list (Basallo, Tavera, De Leon, Liranzo, Sosa,  Arias, Almeyda, Nunez, Marao) compared to last year’s 7 (Basallo, Bencosme, Tavera, Estrada, Prieto, Amparo, Arias).  Five are in the top 20, compared to two last year.  That’s a positive sign for our international group but also reflects some weakening among our domestic group IMO.  Not surprising when you consider who graduated the list and where our draft position was compared to previous years.  

I’ll do my head to head analysis later today.  


 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Frobby

[RZNJ]

Baseball America 2023 pre season top 100 had:

1 Henderson

6 GRod

75 Hall

76 Westburg

Tough to replace but the emergence of Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo makes it interesting.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

Here is my player-by-player breakdown of 2022 vs. 2023.  I show Tony’s grades for each player (present value, future value, ceiling and risk level) for context, then give my rationale for who I chose.  In each case, I am trying to view the 2022 player as he was seen when the list came out, rather than in hindsight.  Tony’s grades are helpful for that, but I don’t rely on them exclusively in making my choices.  I’d love to hear where people disagree with my selections.

1.      Gunnar Henderson (50, 65, 70, L) vs. Jackson Holliday (45, 65, 70, L):   I score this one as a flat-footed tie.   Both were the no. 1 prospect in baseball, and though I could split hairs either way, I see them as equal at the time the two lists were made.   It’s the only tie on my list.

2.      Grayson Rodgriguez (50, 65, 70, L) vs. Samuel Basallo (35, 65, 7,5, H): I choose Rodriguez, who had been considered in many circles the best pitching prospect in MLB before his 2022 injury.  I love Basallo but feel Rodriguez was more of a sure thing, while still having a very high ceiling.

3.      Jackson Holliday (30, 65, 70, M) vs. Coby Mayo (45, 60, 70, L):  I choose Holliday, who had been the no. 1 pick in June and already was garnering predictions that he’d be the no. 1 prospect in MLB by the following summer.

4.      DL Hall (45, 55, 60, L) vs. Heston Kjerstad (45, 55, 60, L):  I feel Kjerstad is the safer choice here, as he will settle in as an everyday player while Hall’s eventual role is not settled.

5.      Coby Mayo (35, 50, 60, M) vs. Colton Cowser (45, 50, 55, L):  Tony had Mayo ahead of Cowser in 2022 and Cowser in my opinion didn’t raise his standing in 2023, he just held serve.  So, it’s 2022 Mayo.

6.      Jordan Westburg (45, 50, 55, L) vs. Joey Ortiz (45, 50, 55, L):  This one is really splitting hairs, but again, Westburg had the edge in 2022 on Tony’s list and I feel that Ortiz stayed steady but didn’t really improve his stock in 2023.

7.      Joey Ortiz (40, 50, 55, L) vs. Enrique Bradfield, Jr. (30, 50, 55, H):  Interesting comparison between two excellent defensive players, but I think Ortiz’s floor on offense is much higher than Bradfield’s as of now.  This is a case where the risk grade influenced me.

8.      Colton Cowser (40, 50, 55, L) vs. Dylan Beavers (40, 50, 55, M): I think Cowser has the higher ceiling and floor.  Cowser in 2022 destroyed the level that Beavers is in now, and was moved to AAA.

9.      Connor Norby (40, 50, 55, L) vs. Chayce McDermott (45, 50, 55, M): This was a close one, but I think Norby’s higher floor outweighs McDermott’s somewhat higher ceiling.  2022 Norby had been the steadier performer, and was on a heater as 2022 ended, leading the org in homers.  He’s down a tad now in my book but that’s not what I’m judging.

10.   Heston Kjerstad (30, 50, 55, H) vs. Mac Horvath (30, 50, 55, H):  Tony’s grades are the same but I’d give Kjerstad the nod based on pedigree and power potential.  

11.   Samuel Basallo (25, 50, 60, extreme (“X”)) vs. Connor Norby (40, 50, 55, L): Tough choice here between a prospect who has spent more than a full year in AAA and a player who at the time was still in the FCL.   I’d take Basallo though, as a player with more upside.  For me, Norby’s standing went down a bit this year as he had a good not great offensive year and didn’t really answer the questions about his defense.

12.   Dylan Beavers (30, 50, 55, M) vs. Braylin Tavera (25, 50, 60, X): Just a lot more certainty with Beavers, outweighing Tavera’s possible upside advantage.

13.   Cade Povich (35, 45, 55, L) vs. Cade Povich (35, 45, 55, M): This is the first of two players competing against himself.  I view Povich’s 2023 season as mildly disappointing compared to my expectations due to his inconsistency, so I choose the 2022 version, just as Tony changed his risk grade from low to medium this year.

14.   Jud Fabian (30, 45, 50, M) vs. Luis De Leon (25, 45, 60, X): Here I choose De Leon for his higher upside.   He doesn’t have the obvious limitations that accompanied Fabian on draft day.

15.   Max Wagner (30, 45, 50, M) vs. Josh Liranzo (20, 50, 60, X): Another upside play for me, with Liranzo winning out for that reason.

16.   Seth Johnson (30, 45, 50, H) vs. Jackson Baumeister (30, 45, 50, H): Identical grades but I choose Johnson based on his draft status and the fact that the O’s coveted him in the Mancini trade.

17.   Darrel Hernaiz (30, 45, 50, M) vs.  Thomas Sosa (25, 45, 60, X):  Here I valued Hernaiz’s solid floor over Sosa’s higher ceiling.

18.   Frederick Bencosme (30, 45, 50, M) vs. Seth Johnson (30, 45, 50, H): I had real concerns about Bencosme’s defense as of 2022.  Johnson was ranked a couple of spots ahead of him then, and I don’t see that Johnson hurt his status by what he did in his 2023 rehab starts.  If anything, Johnson’s risk is a bit down.

19.   Carter Young (25, 40, 50, H) vs. Leandro Arias (20, 45, 50, X): Both these guys were a roll of the dice at the time of these lists, but Arias has a solid year under his belt, which Young did not have as of 2022.

20.   Noah Denoyer (40, 45, 45, L) vs. Luis Almeyda (20, 45, 50, X): Almeyda has starting infielder upside, whereas Denoyer was never likely to be more than a Bruce Zimmermann type.

21.   Braylin Tavera (20, 40, 50, X) vs. Trace Bright (40, 45, 45, M): Tavera had a pretty disappointing 2022 so for me his prospect status was a bit down.   Bright was inconsistent in 2023 but showed some flashes of dominance.   I went with Bright as the guy with the higher future value grade.

22.   Carter Baumler (25, 40, 50, X) vs. Carter Baumler (25, 40, 50, X): The second spot on the list where the player is competing with himself.   I chose the 2022 version because Baumler threw fewer innings than hoped in 2023, and seems to have nagging health issues even with his TJ rehab in the rear view mirror.

23.   Aron Estrada (20, 40, 50, X) vs. Max Wagner (35, 45, 45, M).   Wagner was ranked far higher than Estrada in 2022, and had a decent season in 2023.   So I’d go with 2023 Wagner.

24.   Drew Rom (40, 40, 45, L) vs. Jud Fabian (30, 40, 45, H).  Because of the risk factor and floor, I’d go with 2022 Rom.

25.   Cesar Prieto (35, 40, 45, L) vs. Creed Willems (30, 40, 45, H).  Ditto here.  Prieto will make it to the majors, Willems might not and odds are he won’t he an impact player if he does, any more than Prieto.  

26.   Trace Bright (30, 40, 50, H) vs. Kiefer Lord (30, 40, 45, H).  Strictly going on Tony’s higher ceiling for Bright here.

27.   Chayce McDermott (35, 40, 45, M) vs. Juan Nunez (30, 40, 45, H).  Went with McDermott based on PV grade.

28.   Hudson Haskin (35, 40, 45, L) vs. Matthew Etzel (30, 40, 45, H).  Went with Haskin based on higher PV and lower risk.   I like Haskin a bit more than Tony does anyway.

29.   Edwin Amparo (20, 40, 50, X) vs. Francisco Marao (20, 40, 50, X).   Grades are the same so I’m going with Amparo based on what Koby seemed to think when he signed these guys (i.e., Amparo got a much bigger bonus).

30.   Luis Arias (20, 40, 50, X) vs. Brandon Young (35, 40, 45, H).  Going with Arias as the higher ceiling guy.

So, I have it 21 votes for the 2022 player  (as regarded at the time), 8 votes for the 2023 player, and a tie between Gunnar and Jackson at the top.   How do you see it?   Remember, try to keep hindsight out of how you see the 2022 players.   Most of them raised or lowered theit stock in 2023 but you have to ignore that for this exercise.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Frobby

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

8.      Colton Cowser (40, 50, 55, L) vs. Dylan Beavers (40, 50, 55, M): I think Cowser has the higher ceiling and floor.  Cowser in 2022 destroyed the level that Beavers is in now, and was moved to AAA.

I think Beavers has the higher floor.  First off, he was technically in his age 21 season last year while Cowser was in his age 22 season in 2022.  Even with those great AA numbers Cowser struck out 25% of the time while Beavers struck out 20% at AA.    

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think Beavers has the higher floor.  First off, he was technically in his age 21 season last year while Cowser was in his age 22 season in 2022.  Even with those great AA numbers Cowser struck out 25% of the time while Beavers struck out 20% at AA.    

So does that mean you would have chosen Beavers over the 2022 version of Cowser?   Or do you see Cowser having had more upside that outweighs the lower floor?

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So does that mean you would have chosen Beavers over the 2022 version of Cowser?   Or do you see Cowser having had more upside that outweighs the lower floor?

Tough question.  I guess I would still go 22 Cowser based on the higher upside although I’m not sure about that either.   If Beavers starts hitting home runs and maintains good contact rates, then what?

[btdart20]

I landed with 16-14 with the edge to 2022.  I took Gunnar over Jackson based on power/defense/arm.  I'd rather see the ceilings that far down the list than the floors which is probably a fundament difference between my final 'grade' and yours.

2022 - 6 (3 70+)

2023 - 8 (3 70+)

Graduating Gunnar (70-ceiling), Grayson (70), and Hall (60) will do that.  Half of the most talented ceiling athletes from last year were no longer considered in 2023.  We've baack-filled the 70-ceilling guys with growth from Mayo/Basallo.  Plus, the 60-ceiling guys were back-filled and reached further down the list in 2023.  The risk/ceiling influx is largely due to more international/younger guys.

 

Re: Povich/Baumler - Interesting that both fell in the exact same slots as 2022.  I agree with your assessment.  I was more excited about them last year-end than this year-end.  We didn't really learn much from Baumler and still have the nagging health questions (maybe to a greater degree even).  Povich did advance to AAA.  He did have some dominant outings.  It's interesting that the only guy between Povich and Baumler from 2022 to 2023 who is still slotted in that tier is... Seth Johnson.  Everyone but Braylin Tavera (and Hernaiz) faded.

 

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

8.      Colton Cowser (40, 50, 55, L) vs. Dylan Beavers (40, 50, 55, M): I think Cowser has the higher ceiling and floor.  Cowser in 2022 destroyed the level that Beavers is in now, and was moved to AAA.

This is an interesting pairing.  Both had some tweaks to their swing/approach and both may have kicked it to the curb and leaned into their innate skill.  

Interesting that Cowser was 8th in 2022 and 5th in 2023.  Is he the beneficiary of graduations up the board?  Or a solidified floor?  But what about the debut?  Is it foreshadowing for Beavers' 2024?

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Interesting that Cowser was 8th in 2022 and 5th in 2023.  Is he the beneficiary of graduations up the board?  Or a solidified floor?  But what about the debut?  Is it foreshadowing for Beavers' 2024?

I considered Cowser between 4-6 on the list. I think he's better than his awful debut, but I do have some concerns on hitting velocity. Saying that, he's got the best all around combination of power, speed, and defense compared to Kjerstad and Ortiz. 

Ultimately, I think Cowser will be ok and will settle in as an everyday left fielder in Camden Yards for the Orioles for years to come. Kjerstad got the nod over him at #4 because of his power potential and the fact his bat looks more major league ready. He has no issues with velocity that I've been able to observe. He got the nod over Ortiz because of some questions on how much power Ortiz will ultimately have at the major league level. Ortiz does have the highest floor though because there is no doubt he'll have a long major league career as a utility guy because of his defense.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I landed with 16-14 with the edge to 2022.  I took Gunnar over Jackson based on power/defense/arm.  I'd rather see the ceilings that far down the list than the floors which is probably a fundament difference between my final 'grade' and yours.

That’s fair.  I tend to be conservative and like the guys who are likely to have at least some major league future, vs. the guys who might not make it at all but might also have more upside.  

[sportsfan8703]

Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo, are all really young, and all have huge ceilings.  It's crazy that a debate could even exist over which is better Gunnar/GR/Holliday or Holliday/Mayo/Basallo.   

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo, are all really young, and all have huge ceilings.  It's crazy that a debate could even exist over which is better Gunnar/GR/Holliday or Holliday/Mayo/Basallo.   

Why is it crazy?  The first group was young with huge ceilings too.

[btdart20]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Why is it crazy?  The first group was young with huge ceilings too.

I think he means it's more about 'what are the crazy odds to have these group of guys two years in a row' than the actual debate itself.

[RZNJ]

Just now, btdart20 said:

I think he means it's more about 'what are the crazy odds to have these group of guys two years in a row' than the actual debate itself.

Ok. That would make sense.