Fangraphs Projected 2024 Record…..O’s 11th

[emmett16]

Making up for Bautista’s production is going to be a challenge.  We had a very middle of the road bullpen last year with him.  Kimbrel alone isn’t fixing that.  I’d like to see them pick up an impact reliever more than a SP.  

Edited December 30, 2023 by emmett16

[terpoh]

3 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

I feel like the Rays could fall off a cliff in 2024 and finish 4th or 5th in the AL East.

Wander Franco (5.5 WAR in 2023) is gone.

Tyler Glasnow (3.53 ERA in 2023) is gone.

Shane McClanahan to miss all of 2024 with surgery.

That's like 10-12 WAR gone. 

Junior Caminero will slide into Franco's spot. Springs, Rasmussen will be back at some point during the 2024 season for McClanahan. Shane Baz and the recently acquired Ryan Pepiot will be healthy and in the bigs for Glasnow. Still have Eflin, Littell, Civale, Bradley. Maybe those guys dont fill those shoes completely but the Rays should be just fine. 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, terpoh said:

Junior Caminero will slide into Franco's spot. Springs, Rasmussen will be back at some point during the 2024 season for McClanahan. Shane Baz and the recently acquired Ryan Pepiot will be healthy and in the bigs for Glasnow. Still have Eflin, Littell, Civale, Bradley. Maybe those guys dont fill those shoes completely but the Rays should be just fine. 

Is it even certain that McClanahan misses the whole season?  He had his surgery on August 21.  It’s not inconceivable that he’d be back in September.  

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, JimGinSP said:

Thanks for the link!

Well they certainly expect Holliday to arrive to the tune of 546 plate appearances, but regression from Hays & Santander while basically projecting Cowser as a washout and Means only throwing 135 innings is certainly concerning.

I’d sign up for 135 ip out of Means.  Been saying for a while Hays is the weak links.  As compared to other RF in the league, Santander is below average.  I’m sure ME & all the other Games know this as well.  Our improvement next year hinges on the development system. 

[dystopia]

3 hours ago, JimGinSP said:

Thanks for the link!

Well they certainly expect Holliday to arrive to the tune of 546 plate appearances, but regression from Hays & Santander while basically projecting Cowser as a washout and Means only throwing 135 innings is certainly concerning.

Nothing to be concerned about. Fangraphs couldn't predict the sun rising in the east tomorrow.

[nvpacchi]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they are a joke why do some many folks here obsess about their opinions?

Just my opinion, but the site has rested on it laurels living off the great work from many of the writers in the 2010s. Now they can't really even seem to be bothered to come up with anything new or creative.

Granted they got sniped often by MLB teams, but correct me if im wrong, its been awhile since someone else left for MLB pastures. Kevin Goldstein a few years back is the latest one I remember, and he's an exception due to his fame with the Astros prior.

The free agency pulse of the crowd articles (or whatever its called), or the ranking each team at position by WAR, or the top 50 valuable players- haven't changed format in years. They're stale and I think a nice microcosm of the current state of fangraphs, playing the greatest hits. Everyone gets tired of hearing Stairway and Dream On after awhile.

I said it before, but Fangraphs started its descent when it killed Notgraphs. At least then Fangraphs felt like a place that was at least capable of making fun of itself and staying light hearted. 30 puns in a Mike Baumann article doesn't hit the same.

[Chaka Garcia]

Never liked Fangraphs, their prospect lists are always dated and off. The preseason projections usually miss their mark and writers are crap. Don’t get why anyone would reference them as experts. 

[Frobby]

Looks like Fangraphs (or Steamer at least) is expecting our pitching to backslide a bit.  They have us at a 4.07 ERA, compared to 3.89 last year.  By contrast, they have our offense at .755 OPS, up from .742.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Frobby

[Spy Fox]

Thought about making a new thread for this, but decided to bump this one. 

The O's were the most popular AL East winner, AL pennant winner, and AL World Series winner in the Fangraphs writers poll. They were the only AL team that all 25 voters picked to make the playoffs. Some of the Fangraphs models may hate the O's but it doesn't seem like their human writers do. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2024-staff-predictions/

Edited March 28 by Spy Fox