Fangraphs Projected 2024 Record…..O’s 11th

[JimGinSP]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

There are some objective data behind their assessment. Here is their assessment of likely WAR given " projected playing time, NOT the current status of a team's roster." If you go to the link below you can see their individual WAR predictions. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

Team        Position Player WAR    Pitching WAR   Total WAR

Braves	34.0	19.4	53.4
Dodgers	30.6	20.0	50.6
Astros	31.1	16.3	47.3
Yankees	32.5	14.7	47.2
Blue Jays	27.0	16.3	43.3
Rays	28.0	15.0	43.0
Phillies	21.9	20.8	42.7
Cardinals	26.0	15.9	41.9
Twins	24.2	17.5	41.7
Orioles	27.2	12.7	39.9
Mariners	23.1	16.3	39.4
Rangers	26.4	12.9	39.3

Thanks for the link!

Well they certainly expect Holliday to arrive to the tune of 546 plate appearances, but regression from Hays & Santander while basically projecting Cowser as a washout and Means only throwing 135 innings is certainly concerning.

Edited December 30, 2023 by JimGinSP

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Fangraphs hates the O’s… beyond obvious. 

Why would they?

Is it a personal animosity?

Do they think somehow their website will be more popular if that crap on the O's?

How does it make sense that they would have something against a random small to mid market team?

 

[Satyr3206]

I project that Fangraphs is going to go out of Business soon.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Satyr3206 said:

I project that Fangraphs is going to go out of Business soon.

Would be a shame.

The consolidation of the internet is doing more harm than good.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I project that Fangraphs is going to go out of Business soon.

Based on what?

[Satyr3206]

Just now, Frobby said:

Based on what?

It's a joke.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

It's a joke.

Oh, I thought it was just another O's fan with a chip on their shoulder complaining about how an algorithm "hates" their favorite team.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

If Vegas puts the over under win total for the Orioles at 83 or 84 wins I think I’m betting heavy for the over.

Yeah I don't know why I haven't been betting the over on the win totals, it's like free money.

[sportsfan8703]

They just believe that,

- Bradish was an anomaly

- GR was much closer to his 1st half

- Bautista is out

- Gunnar had a career year

- Mounty and O’Hearn take steps back

- Adley is a defensive specialist with ? Defense

- the whole bullpen will regress

- Hays, Mullins, and Santa, decline 

Basically they think negative regression

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

They just believe that,

- Bradish was an anomaly

- GR was much closer to his 1st half

- Bautista is out

- Gunnar had a career year

- Mounty and O’Hearn take steps back

- Adley is a defensive specialist with ? Defense

- the whole bullpen will regress

- Hays, Mullins, and Santa, decline 

Basically they think negative regression

Yes, totally reasonable and fair for them to assume all of this but not assume any positive development at the same time. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

They just believe that,

- Bradish was an anomaly

- GR was much closer to his 1st half

- Bautista is out

- Gunnar had a career year

- Mounty and O’Hearn take steps back

- Adley is a defensive specialist with ? Defense

- the whole bullpen will regress

- Hays, Mullins, and Santa, decline 

Basically they think negative regression

They don’t “believe” anything.  A computer algorhythm is spitting out numbers for individual players based on past performance, age, etc., and then someone is making judgments on who will get the playing time.   That generates team projections for runs scored and allowed and they calculate a Pythagorean record based on that.   It’s that simple.  It’s not really a matter of someone’s opinions and beliefs, except to the extent they’re guessing how many at bats go to Mateo and Urias vs. Ortiz and Holliday.   

[maybenxtyr]

Of course we do not know how the off season will play out, but I don't know if it would be crazy for close to the same team to be around 87-89 wins in 2024. They could also win 95+... it's hard to say on 12/30.

[Malike]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh, I thought it was just another O's fan with a chip on their shoulder complaining about how an algorithm "hates" their favorite team.

I mean it's not just the O's. Check Reddit, every team's fans think Fangraphs hates them.

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They don’t “believe” anything.  A computer algorhythm is spitting out numbers for individual players based on past performance, age, etc., and then someone is making judgments on who will get the playing time.   That generates team projections for runs scored and allowed and they calculate a Pythagorean record based on that.   It’s that simple.  It’s not really a matter of someone’s opinions and beliefs, except to the extent they’re guessing how many at bats go to Mateo and Urias vs. Ortiz and Holliday.   

This.  IIRC, people at FG has said it doesn’t do a good job projecting rookies and noobs.  Which, for a team with age demographics like the O’s is a significant factor.  The old rookie tax is tough to project.

[btdart20]

57 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Definitely feels like 2023 was an "everything went right" kind of season. Im not expecting Bradish to repeat his amazing season for one. That was probably a career year. Grod, Means and Kremer on the other hand could all show improvement.

Bradish will be fine.  Top 5?  Maybe not.  Top 15 in the AL?  Yes.  He’s a warhorse.