Keith Law Top 100

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Maybe. But there's a difference from the style of baseball I'd like to see, with lots of speed and triples and balls in play, and what wins games in reality. If he ends up as a guy who's a plus defender who steals bases at a high percentage, hits 12 triples and 10 homers with a .300 average and 60 walks that would be awesome.

But he could also be 2007 Juan Pierre. Hits .293 and steals 64 bases but is still a well below-average player because his glove is just okay, he doesn't walk enough and had zero homers.

Obviously rooting for option A.

Well I think if he shows enough power, the walks and OBp will come because that’s apparently a strong suit of his anyway..and obviously something the Os are emphasizing.

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I think if he shows enough power, the walks and OBp will come because that’s apparently a strong suit of his anyway..and obviously something the Os are emphasizing.

It’s one of the biggest questions of 2024 on the farm.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s one of the biggest questions of 2024 on the farm.

Yep. If Bradfield develops this year as we hope, he’s going to start in CF on OD next year. 

This is a big deal because obviously you should look to move Mullins in the offseason, which will likely mean that’s one of the larger storylines for the Os.

If he doesn’t develop the way you hope, you are likely keeping Mullins for 2025 and seeing what happens from there.

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep. If Bradfield develops this year as we hope, he’s going to start in CF on OD next year. 

This is a big deal because obviously you should look to move Mullins in the offseason, which will likely mean that’s one of the larger storylines for the Os.

If he doesn’t develop the way you hope, you are likely keeping Mullins for 2025 and seeing what happens from there.

OD 2025 would be beyond most reasonable peoples hopes.  Considering no one in the organization has gotten to the majors that fast, to this point, those hopes seem overly optimistic although I wouldn’t rule it out.   The way you use the word “hope” almost feels like “expect”.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

OD 2025 would be beyond most reasonable peoples hopes.  Considering no one in the organization has gotten to the majors that fast, to this point, those hopes seem overly optimistic although I wouldn’t rule it out.   The way you use the word “hope” almost feels like “expect”.

Hays did.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hays did.

 

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hays did.

Ok.  He didn’t even play in the majors the next year.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

 

Ok.  He didn’t even play in the majors the next year.

You are right.

That's irrelevant.

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are right.

That's irrelevant.

Haha.  It’s irrelevant in that it doesn’t change the fact that Hays made it to the majors during his first full season (2017) in the system.   It’s relevant in that he didn’t make an OD roster until 2021.  So, there is still no player who has done what he hopes Bradfield will do, which is become the regular CF after one full season in the minors.   

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha.  It’s irrelevant in that it doesn’t change the fact that Hays made it to the majors during his first full season (2017) in the system.   It’s relevant in that he didn’t make an OD roster until 2021.  So, there is still no player who has done what he hopes Bradfield will do, which is become the regular CF after one full season in the minors.   

Did you not see what I bolded?

He made it "that fast", unless you want to say making it faster is somehow an issue?

For all the grief I get for folks suggesting I can't admit I'm wrong it's funny how others can't just go.  "Oh, right, sorry I missed that one."

It's extra funny since you are the main person watching to see if I misspeak.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you not see what I bolded?

He made it "that fast", unless you want to say making it faster is somehow an issue?

For all the grief I get for folks suggesting I can't admit I'm wrong it's funny how others can't just go.  "Oh, right, sorry I missed that one."

It's extra funny since you are the main person watching to see if I misspeak.

Hello, I conceded that Hays made it to the majors that fast.  He just didn’t crack an OD roster until 3 years later.   My point is that expecting Bradfield to be the OD CF in 2025 is super optimistic.
 

Back to your regular paranoid programming.  Lol

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think it matters too much what has happened before, as we have seen with someone like Holliday.

That being said, the only thing stopping Bradfield from being a MLer is his bat. By all accounts, the defense and speed play right now in the majors.  He may be able to come up on OD this year and be a 1-2 WAR player because of those things alone.

My thought is this.  He starts in Aberdeen and if he is performing well, he’s in Bowie by mid May/early June, assuming health of course.

Once you are in AA, you are on a fast track. If he is hitting well in AA, I don’t think they keep him there all year. I think he would be in AAA by August or so. So, how does he end the year in AAA? If he continues to hit well (I’m not even saying he’s great, just showing that he should be able to hold his own in the majors), I think that puts him in line for OD 2025.

First of all, why keep Mullins for one year and pay him a lot and get nothing for him?  Secondly, you know the defense and speed are elite. If the bat is good enough, why hold him back?  
 

Now, I do agree that this is kind of a best case scenario thing but the Os drafted a guy who already is elite in 2 of the 3 phases. What other player have they drafted that you could say that about? And even if you want to argue Adley, they were tanking and wouldn’t do anything with his service time plus you then had the COVID year.

Now you have a team ready to win. Your incumbent CFer is getting older and expensive and if your shiney new toy is ready, go with him. If he shows he can hit well enough, I think 2025 Bradfield out WARs 2025 Mullins.

Edited February 9 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep. If Bradfield develops this year as we hope, he’s going to start in CF on OD next year. 

This is a big deal because obviously you should look to move Mullins in the offseason, which will likely mean that’s one of the larger storylines for the Os.

If he doesn’t develop the way you hope, you are likely keeping Mullins for 2025 and seeing what happens from there.

I’d put good money on the proposition that Bradfield will not be our starting CF on OD 2025.   If he finishes with good numbers in AA this year and manages an ISO close to .100 I’ll be happy.  

[Warehouse]

https://theathletic.com/5260955/2024/02/12/orioles-2024-top-prospects-keith-law/?source=user_shared_article
 

1. Holliday

2. Basallo

3. Mayo

4. Kjerstad

5. Bradfield

6. Cowser

7. Beavers

8. Norby

9. Povich

10. McDermott

11. Horvath

12. Kiefer Lord

13. Leandro Arias

14. Braylin Tavera

15. Luis De Leon

16. Seth Johnson

17. Juan Nunez

18. Justin Armbruester

19. Luis Almeyda

20. Jackson Baumeister

 

Others of note:

- Thomas Sosa

- Max Wagner

- Tavian Josenberger

- Jake Cunningham

- Matthew Etzel 

 

Biggest drop: Fabian

Sleeper: Almeyda

8 of 20 pitchers.  6 of 20 international.  4 of 20 2023 draft picks.

[Warehouse]

Below are some noteworthy take-aways from the write-up:

Jackson better at SS than Holliday.

Cowser plays plus defense in outfield corners but struggles against lefties and non-fastballs. Projects as a 4th outfielder with a small chance to become more.

Beavers would be a top 100 guy if he had more power.

Now thinks McDermott can be a starter (previously thought he was a two-pitch reliever) as he broadened his arsenal last year.

Really high on Lord’s upside, though high risk given lack of track record.

Horvath currently lacks a position.

Leandro Arias may stick at SS (presumably based on talking to other scouts as I don’t believe Law scouts the complex league) - this surprised me. 

Braylin Tavera can stick in CF and has shown more contact but less power than expected.

Almeyda likely 3B, but projects to plus power.

Thomas Sosa likely RF, 55-60 power.

Etzel may be able to unlock more (gap) power with some small swing tweaks.

[Sports Guy]

No Liranzo mention is interesting.