Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[Just Regular]

I heard Eno Sarris recently talking about greater skepticism on forecast model outputs with very young/old players.    I think it was in a discussion about forecasting Justin Verlander.     By age 41, his Player Empirical Comparables boil off to like Bartolo Colon and Nolan Ryan, and what can they tell you how he'll do.

A 1-1 high school infielder clearing four levels in Year 1 pushes Jackson Holliday's cohort towards "Alex Rodriguez", except that he's like half that guy's size.    I don't know that today Holliday isn't the best singles hitter in MLB aside from Luis Arraez, but his Turn and Burn skills won't get all the way there for probably 13 more years.

Looking at some very young players (who also happened to get to Fall Classics), Edgar Renteria's one who hit .309 at age 19.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=c%2C3%2C4%2C6%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C21%2C-1%2C34%2C35%2C40%2C41%2C-1%2C23%2C37%2C38%2C50%2C317%2C61%2C-1%2C111%2C-1%2C203%2C199%2C58&ind=1&postseason=W&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1871&season=2023&age=15&age=20&sortcol=4&sortdir=default&v_cr=202301&pagenum=1&pageitems=50

 

[Billy F-Face3]

I think Jackson Holliday has received so much hype and attention just because he was the top player in the draft and so far the top prospect in baseball, that fans might tend to have too many expectations right out the gate. His prestige and his family pedigree is kind of creating a little too much buzz. He is still just turning 20 and he only had a few weeks in AAA last season.

What I'm trying to say is Jackson is young and he still has to prove it. Hype and attention don't give you results.

I do believe he will eventually live up to the expectations, but I also believe it will come at a slower pace of development than most fans seem to think. (I don't think he's going to go strait into MLB and automatically hit without some struggles to adjust to more talented pitchers). But like Frobby says, it matters only what Mike Elias & Sig Meijdal's front office thinks.

[sportsfan8703]

11 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I think Jackson Holliday has received so much hype and attention just because he was the top player in the draft and so far the top prospect in baseball, that fans might tend to have too many expectations right out the gate. His prestige and his family pedigree is kind of creating a little too much buzz. He is still just turning 20 and he only had a few weeks in AAA last season.

What I'm trying to say is Jackson is young and he still has to prove it. Hype and attention don't give you results.

I do believe he will eventually live up to the expectations, but I also believe it will come at a slower pace of development than most fans seem to think. (I don't think he's going to go strait into MLB and automatically hit without some struggles to adjust to more talented pitchers). But like Frobby says, it matters only what Mike Elias & Sig Meijdal's front office thinks.

Hype will help you win ROY voters though. 

Is the prospect incentive pick tradeable?

If so, that would give us another draft pick to use as trade bait for a SP next offseason(Mitch Keller). Also, the #32ish isn’t just worth the $4.2 million in value that the trade simulators have assigned it. It’s worth more to a team that drafts strong like us because that’s 6+ years of a cost controlled player. The three times we’ve had picks in that range under Elias we’ve taken Gunnar, Norby, and Beavers. 

[Moose Milligan]

Has he arrived?  What was he wearing?  Does it look like he's added muscle?  How's his life now that he's gotten married?  OMG SO EXCITED

[Just Regular]

Qualified PA seasons by max age-20 bats:

2014-2023: Soto and Vlad Jr.

2004-2013: Trout, Manny, Heyward, Bryce, Andrus, S. Castro

1994-2003: A-Rod, Beltre, Renteria

1984-1993: Griffey Jr. (2X), R. Alomar

1974-1983: C. Washington, Wynegar, Trammell, R. Manning, Yount (2X, 1.2 fWAR in 1300 PA - not that great, but he ended up okay)

1964-1973: Bench, Conigliaro, B. Bell, C. Cedeno, Kranepool

1954-1963: Kaline (2X), Frobby, Pinson, Cepeda, Mazeroski, Bob Bailey, Aaron, Staub, Ken Hubbs, Clemente

1947-1953: Mantle, Mathews, Mays, Yost

[Frobby]

Not a bad group.  

[MCO'sFan]

30 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Qualified PA seasons by max age-20 bats:

2014-2023: Soto and Vlad Jr.

2004-2013: Trout, Manny, Heyward, Bryce, Andrus, S. Castro

1994-2003: A-Rod, Beltre, Renteria

1984-1993: Griffey Jr. (2X), R. Alomar

1974-1983: C. Washington, Wynegar, Trammell, R. Manning, Yount (2X, 1.2 fWAR in 1300 PA - not that great, but he ended up okay)

1964-1973: Bench, Conigliaro, B. Bell, C. Cedeno, Kranepool

1954-1963: Kaline (2X), Frobby, Pinson, Cepeda, Mazeroski, Bob Bailey, Aaron, Staub, Ken Hubbs, Clemente

1947-1953: Mantle, Mathews, Mays, Yost

Looks like he's better than a 50/50 shot to be a HOF'er. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Has he arrived?  What was he wearing?  Does it look like he's added muscle?  How's his life now that he's gotten married?  OMG SO EXCITED

But we are all "OMG SO EXCITED".  Winning is COOL.  

Edited February 14 by sportsfan8703

[btdart20]

39 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

1954-1963: Kaline (2X), Frobby, Pinson, Cepeda, Mazeroski, Bob Bailey, Aaron, Staub, Ken Hubbs, Clemente

Well played!

 

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Has he arrived?  What was he wearing?  Does it look like he's added muscle?  How's his life now that he's gotten married?  OMG SO EXCITED

Best shape of his life!

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

Looks like he's better than a 50/50 shot to be a HOF'er. 

This is just data, like a pitch is.    It doesn't automatically mean anything about a player being better than Adam Frazier today - they may or may not be.

Holliday could still miss this distinction if he doesn't qualify this season, same as Basallo could miss it next year.

[MCO'sFan]

48 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

This is just data, like a pitch is.    It doesn't automatically mean anything about a player being better than Adam Frazier today - they may or may not be.

Holliday could still miss this distinction if he doesn't qualify this season, same as Basallo could miss it next year.

I agree. My comment was kind of tongue-in-cheek. It is an impressive list though. Especially, the more recent years. Thanks for doing the research and posting. 

Edited February 14 by MCO'sFan

[Frobby]

I have to admit, when I started this thread last week, I didn’t think it would get to 18 pages before they’d even played a spring training game.  

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have to admit, when I started this thread last week, I didn’t think it would get to 18 pages before they’d even played a spring training game.  

You must be new here. I’m Moose Milligan.   

[Sports Guy]

 

[Just Regular]

I think Kiley going to JJ Hardy is pushing a Baltimore fit for an overall value picture - Hardy I considered a Power before Hit guy as a contributor with the bat, basically the opposite of how I think Holliday is this minute.

Homeruns could be an interesting Over/Under to follow - I'd be thrilled if this year was 20 HR, never mind 25.

Renteria was 5, Jeter was 10, Alomar was 9.