2024 Ongoing Lineup Thread

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Flash- bd said:

2 years + 45 PA this season. His career OPS vs. LHP is are .741 and .638. I'm guessing they give a lot more weight to that (2657 PAs) than his last 515 PA, which is the time you are referring to when he has had reverse splits. Given that it's 5 times bigger the sample and including the recent sample he still has dramatically favorable splits vs. LHP, and given how little can be divined from a 515 PA sample in a vacuum--and especially in a case of something as volatile as splits--that sounds to me like a pretty rational decision. Perhaps I am giving too much benefit of a doubt but I certainly think that baseball decision makers, especially in this organization, pay attention to things like recency bias, etc.

What analytic stats? Models, no doubt, models that can shed light on just the kind of thing I'm talking about above. Probably models shedding light on pitcher type and pitch type that he'll be facing. Aside from that, I included the word information for a reason, not just analytics, because people within a team's clubhouse are privy to all kind of relevant information in a decision like this that we are not. 

You lost me at giving credence to stats that are 4+ years old for a decline well into his 30s catcher.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

McCann had a 467 OPS vs lefties and has been bad bs lefties for 3 years running.  
 

What analytic stats do they have that we dont at this point, especially with statcast now part of our everyday?

If I told you, I’d have to kill you.  

I am sure they have reasons that take into account everything we know, and other things.  The beat reporters aren’t going to ask, and if they did, Hyde would only speak in platitudes anyway since they’d never follow up.

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Could DH Santander and play Stowers in RF

Stowers has been beat up as I said. They say he is better. Maybe wants to give him another day off. 

[eddie83]

Just now, Frobby said:

If I told you, I’d have to kill you.  

I am sure they have reasons that take into account everything we know, and other things.  The beat reporters aren’t going to ask, and if they did, Hyde would only speak in platitudes anyway since they’d never follow up.

I really doubt this is about McCann tonight. Think this is more about circumstances.  

[DirtyBird]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

McCann had a 467 OPS vs lefties and has been bad bs lefties for 3 years running.  
 

What analytic stats do they have that we dont at this point, especially with statcast now part of our everyday?

I think it’s more about keeping Adley fresh than it is about a platoon matchup for McCann

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Stowers has been beat up as I said. They say he is better. Maybe wants to give him another day off. 

Not sure why Stowers would have been worth keeping on the active roster if he is too banged up to play

[Flash- bd]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You lost me at giving credence to stats that are 4+ years old for a decline well into his 30s catcher.

2+, to correct you again, as you seem to be like adding years there!  

So your hypothesis is that his decline has affected his ability to hit LHPs more than RHPs? 

Edited June 11 by Flash- bd

[Frobby]

I believe @DrungoHazewoodhas stated in the past that the generality that RHB hit lefties better than righties is so strong that almost all reverse splits are just temporary anomalies that should be disregarded as having any predictive value.  Drungo can correct me if I’ve misstated what he has stated previously.  And perhaps that’s what the Orioles think.  

[dystopia]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

McCann had a 467 OPS vs lefties and has been bad bs lefties for 3 years running.  
 

What analytic stats do they have that we dont at this point, especially with statcast now part of our everyday?

Live by the Sigbot die by the Sigbot. 

[spleen1015]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I believe @DrungoHazewoodhas stated in the past that the generality that RHB hit lefties better than righties is so strong that almost all reverse splits are just temporary anomalies that should be disregarded as having any predictive value.  Drungo can correct me if I’ve misstated what he has stated previously.  And perhaps that’s what the Orioles think.  

Tonight, is it even mostly about splits?

Gunnar - scheduled rest day
O'Hearn - not going to start against LHP
Mullins - hasn't been any good, so not likely
Stowers - has good splits against LHP, maybe he's still nursing the wrist.

I think it just comes down to having the first 8 spots filled for various reasons and you have that last spot to fill and it's down to those 4 & McCann. McCann wins because he's the best option of those 5 for the reason above.

[Aristotelian]

If Suarez could steal a win vs Fried that would be pretty epic in the world of paper matchups. 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

2+, to correct you again, as you seem to be like adding years there!  

So your hypothesis is that his decline has affected his ability to hit LHPs more than RHPs? 

No I’m saying his decline has turned him into a below replacement player.  He’s not that good anymore and he can’t hit…so citing stats from 2020 or earlier isn’t a relevant exercise.

[Flash- bd]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

No I’m saying his decline has turned him into a below replacement player.  He’s not that good anymore and he can’t hit…so citing stats from 2020 or earlier isn’t a relevant exercise.

Aside from adding another year (2021 he had much better LHP splits than RHP), you seem to be shifting the goal posts here, no? My argument isn't about whether McCann is a good player or not, it's whether they are wrong about preferring to play him against LHP. 

Edited June 12 by Flash- bd
had a bit of dislexia there

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Aside from adding another year (2021 he had much better RHP splits than LHP), you seem to be shifting the goal posts here, no? My argument isn't about whether McCann is a good player or not, it's whether they are wrong about preferring to play him against LHP. 

Right sorry..2021 he was ok.  Still, 2022, 2023 and now 2024 he has been terrible. 

They can prefer him all they want. But they are targeting this strategy as a way to do things.

Im all for Adley getting rest and McCann obviously has to play but he is on pace to play more than he should…and it’s because they want to get him in there vs lefties.

[Flash- bd]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Right sorry..2021 he was ok.  Still, 2022, 2023 and now 2024 he has been terrible. 

They can prefer him all they want. But they are targeting this strategy as a way to do things.

Im all for Adley getting rest and McCann obviously has to play but he is on pace to play more than he should…and it’s because they want to get him in there vs lefties.

Seems to be an assumption there in the bolded, no? 

*Edited my post above, I had wrote it wrong, but I think you got what I meant to say. 

Anyways, like I say, I don't have much of an opinion on whether McCann is playing too much...I tend to think that if Adley is performing and it's working, then it's probably worth it, and as you can see above, I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to people who have far more information relevant to a decision than we do. 

My issue was with the critique that McCann shouldn't play against lefties...that that supposedly makes no sense. And I think I have explained why I certainly understand if they don't agree with that critique of yours (in short: 5x bigger sample with a strongly positive vs. LHP split, overall career splits of a strongly positive vs. LHP split).