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With the Aberdeen and Delmarva seasons at an end, it’s time to start thinking about the candidates for O’s minor league pitcher of the year. This post is going to focus on the pitchers at the A+/A level, since Bowie and Norfolk have games remaining that could impact their pitchers’ credentials. Here are the A+/A candidates as I see them (in IP order): Zach Fruit (24, A+) led all O’s A+/A pitchers in IP at 107.0, and posted the best ERA of any A+/A pitcher who threw more than 75 innings, finishing at 3.03. He had a 1.243 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.1 K/BB. Blake Money (22, A) was the low A leader in IP at 103, and had a solid 3.15 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 4.8 K/BB. Michael Forrett (20, A/A+) threw 99.2 innings to a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 2.8 K/BB. Braxton Bragg (23, A) threw 96.2 innings, posting a 3.36 ERA, 1.173 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 5.6 K/BB. Edgar Portes (21, A+) tossed 94.1 innings to a 3.34 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 2.4 K/BB. Trey Gibson (22, A/A+) hurled 92 innings at a 3.72 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 3.0 K/BB. Riley Cooper (22, A) pitched 88.0 innings at a 3.07 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.2 K/BB Nestor German (22, A/A+) missed more than a month early in the year, but threw 69.0 innings to a 1.59 ERA, 0.937 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 5.3 K/BB. It is really hard to say which of these candidates I’d promote as the top A+/A candidate for pitcher of the year, which for me is a different exercise from saying which one is our top A+/A pitching prospect. This is more about 2024 performance than future success in the majors. I came up with a point system where I ranked these pitchers 1-8 in each of the 5 stats I listed, then added or subtracted points based on age compared to the level at which the pitcher finished the year (for this exercise, “par” was 22 for low A and 23 for high A). That system yielded the following (lower is better): German 16 Money 17 Bragg 17 Gibson 21 Forrett 23 Portes 24 Fruit 24 Cooper 32 So, I guess I’m going with German as the best candidate from this group. He really was superb in all the rate stats, and the fact that he got promoted while Bragg and Money did not also tells you something. I was reluctant to choose German since his innings were so low compared to most of the others, which is only partially explained by him missing 4-5 weeks of the season. But at the end of the day, he topped the list pretty easily in ERA and WHIP, was a pretty close 2nd in K/BB to Bragg, who’s a year older and finished a level lower, and his 11.0 K/9 only ranked 5th but wasn’t that far below the leader (11.5). So in the end, German would be my pick as the best candidate from this group. (Again, I’m not saying he’s the best prospect of the group.) Who would you choose from this group? I’ll do the AA pitchers next week after their season ends. [FWIW, while this thread is not about prospect ranking, @Tony-OH’s “power rankings” currently have Forrett 10, German 21, Portes 31, Gibson 33, Bragg 39, and Fruit HM. Money and Cooper are not listed.] -
By Sports Guy · Posted
The Roku broadcast mentioned that GRod wish have multiple 3-4 inning rehab starts and then get one start at the Ml level at the end of the year. I would assume this is info they were told by the team and didn’t make it up but if so, I think it’s possible GRod goes to the pen for the playoffs if he’s not right yet. Remember, he has had mechanical issues coming back from injuries, so shorter stints could be in the cards for him especially if they need high leverage reliever help. We have to see how he looks coming back from the injury but don’t be surprised if that happens, despite the lack of starting rotation depth. -
Also Not to be overlooked. Cowser is currently 5th in MLB in K%. -
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By Moose Milligan · Posted
At this point it's hoping that Mounty, Westburg, Urias and Kjerstad can come back and provide a jolt. Maybe Adley can figure out a way to stop looking terrible...but as SG noted and I agree, I don't think he's 100% healthy. Move Mullins up to the 2 spot, drop Adley to 5th or 6th. Hope Gunnar can stay hot. That's about it. -
Possibly, but I want to see if he can make adjustments first. Right now he's being beaten bc of his approach, not so much his tool set. Even though I don't love his LH bat speed, I think he can still have success from that side if he makes adjustments to his attack plan -
By Sports Guy · Posted
No question. I don’t put anything on Mayo because the playing time is so inconsistent and he has had such few at bats that it’s not really effecting the team. I definitely thought Holliday would be producing better as of now but he’s also 20 and learning. Before the season started, I consistently talked about how a big part of 2024 was Elias figuring out when to go with the inexperienced guys. It is a delicate balance. You need these guys to develop but you are also trying to win. I think they have completely screwed up Mayo’s ML development this year. They didn’t play him at first enough, they called him up too late, they went away from him when maybe he was getting comfortable and now they aren’t playing him enough. Holliday is moving to a new position, trying to adjust and he’s just 20. It’s a really tough situation for all involved but it’s also why I wanted to just go with these guys early and just take your lumps. Look at Milwaukee with Chuorio. His first 200 PA saw him have an OPS just over 600. Since then, he has just about 300 PA and his OPS in that time frame is over 900. Now I’m not saying this is what would have happened with Holliday but Chuorio hit that 200 PA mark in mid June. Holliday is still 28 PA from that…so maybe another week or so away from that. Milwaukee is going to the playoffs and they were patient with their 20 y/o star prospect. (Chuorio did start off better from day 1, which helped..struggled after) I really don’t think they have handled these situations as well as they should have and I think it’s hurting the team now.
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