If you were looking to extend Burnes, what would be the max contract offer?

[Greg Pappas]

Just saw this from the same article linked above... and it's certainly informative. Corbin is spelling it out quite clearly.

Quote

“I want to do it once, get as long a term deal as we can, get that security everyone is looking for.” --Corbin Burnes back in March.

 

Edited May 21 by Greg Pappas

[Bemorewins]

23 hours ago, wildcard said:

After the O's win the World Series with Burnes as their ace:   It will take 7/280m.   The O's will not bid.  No use to bid if they are not willing to offer that number.

But they will extend Means.   GRod, Bradish, Means, Irvin, Kremer, Povich in 2025.

It depends on what your goals are. If being a team with a winning record and competing for a possible playoff birth is you acceptable goal in you 4 of Adley and year 3 of Gunnar then that rotation will probably be okay. 

But if you have any designs on winning a championship then that rotation is not likely to be nearly talented enough to win a World Series unless you have added a Mason Miller to pair with Felix Bautista.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Just saw this from the same article linked above... and it's certainly informative. Corbin is spelling it out quite clearly.

 

So he’s probably looking at 8-10 years at $25-35 million per

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

It depends on what your goals are. If being a team with a winning record and competing for a possible playoff birth is you acceptable goal in you 4 of Adley and year 3 of Gunnar then that rotation will probably be okay. 

But if you have any designs on winning a championship then that rotation is not likely to be nearly talented enough to win a World Series unless you have added a Mason Miller to pair with Felix Bautista.

A rotation of Bradish, Rodriquez, and Kremer is a solid core. 
 

id love them to resign Burnes. And a decision will need to be made on Means as he’s nearing free agency as well. 
 

I suspect they will find an alternative thats quality if Burnes walks. 
 

I suspect Means because of his medical history is signed cheap or leaves. I’m guessing we can count on one of the AAA guys to be ready soon. 

[Orioles West]

I really like watching Burnes pitch.

And yet, I’ve never gone back and forth so much on a possible contract offer for him than any other player.

Dude deserves to be paid, I just keep thinking the price tag and years is simply too much.

It’s fear of injury and potentially paying another guy well after he stops playing baseball. If the Elias and crew want to make a run at him, I’ll certainly roll with it.

I guess we will know more about how deep our pockets actually are after this season.

[Bemorewins]

38 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

A rotation of Bradish, Rodriquez, and Kremer is a solid core. 
 

id love them to resign Burnes. And a decision will need to be made on Means as he’s nearing free agency as well. 
 

I suspect they will find an alternative thats quality if Burnes walks. 
 

I suspect Means because of his medical history is signed cheap or leaves. I’m guessing we can count on one of the AAA guys to be ready soon. 

Bradish is an excellent #2 with injury questions. Grayson has to show that he can be counted on to be a #1 or #2 over the course of a season and into the playoffs. Kremer is a solid #5 starter. Means has not been able to start and finish a season healthy. I would probably prefer a pitcher with a more reliable/available track record. Cheap shouldn’t even enter into the equation with a payroll this low and a team with this kind of potential/talent/aspirations. 

We will most likely need 2 starters in the rotation next year (if we do not resign Burnes who is a bonafide #1 IMO). I don’t think that we are going to “cheap” out way to a World Series. The competition is too good/talented AND historically speaking teams with low payrolls haven’t won a title all that often. In the last 20 years, HOU was lowest (their first WS title) with a payroll ranked 18. We have some work to do just to get that payroll output.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Bradish is an excellent #2 with injury questions. Grayson has to show that he can be counted on to be a #1 or #2 over the course of a season and into the playoffs. Kremer is a solid #5 starter. Means has not been able to start and finish a season healthy. I would probably prefer a pitcher with a more reliable/available track record. Cheap shouldn’t even enter into the equation with a payroll this low and a team with this kind of potential/talent/aspirations. 

We will most likely need 2 starters in the rotation next year (if we do not resign Burnes who is a bonafide #1 IMO). I don’t think that we are going to “cheap” out way to a World Series. The competition is too good/talented AND historically speaking teams with low payrolls haven’t won a title all that often. In the last 20 years, HOU was lowest (their first WS title) with a payroll ranked 18. We have some work to do just to get that payroll output.

I think you are too hard on Kremer …he’s a solid #4 and if he’s your 5 you’re sitting pretty good. An average MLB starter era in 2022 was 3.96….. in 2022 Dean’s era was 3.23 ….even if that number stayed the same and I looked for it …. His 2023 ERA was 4.12, you can’t possibly believe that .16 above the league average era for MLB starter would grade out as a #5. 
 

Bradish was an ace last season (#4 in CY voting). The injury is a concern but he’s currently.20 ERA better than last. Grayson has a 3.15 era through 7 games and was dominant the second half …so he’s a solid #2. So assuming health we have a 1,2,&3 even if we lose Burnes and don’t consider Means….. tough crowd

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t need Rubenstein throwing out shirts or spraying hoses. Sign Burnes. 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 5/20/2024 at 1:10 PM, Greg Pappas said:

I'm not anticipating the O's trying to outbid other teams for Burnes this off-season, nor extending him beforehand.  However, if Elias/Rubenstein were inclined to do so, what offer do you think would be our max offer?  How far would you personally go?

Depends, do you want to win the bidding? Then something (well) north of $200M.

[Just Regular]

19 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Just saw this from the same article linked above... and it's certainly informative. Corbin is spelling it out quite clearly.

 

He gets the owners do long-term financing on the biggest projects, which is him.     One of my basic takeaways from the era of the Xander contract is on super All-Stars who hit free agency, AAV can get misshapen.     Play whatever finance games you want to play with the guarantee.

One of the things I've wondered about is if Shohei's contract structure fails to help lift all boats in the early years with the QO number being geared to I believe the Top 100-125 salaries, which in 2024 is very much not him despite his being a top level player who has earned free agency.     Sure he's an all-time great and wants his dogpile like everyone else very very much but that could hurt Anthony Santander or Cedric Mullins one day if they get very hot.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t need Rubenstein throwing out shirts or spraying hoses. Sign Burnes. 

I have no problem with him generating good will. But, yes ….Extend Burnes. I’d make him a 5-6 year deal with more money per. I’d include 3 vesting options that trigger for his 36/37/38 years …..pick a dollar amount for 180 plus innings and an era under 3.5

[OriolesMagic83]

37 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I have no problem with him generating good will. But, yes ….Extend Burnes. I’d make him a 5-6 year deal with more money per. I’d include 3 vesting options that trigger for his 36/37/38 years …..pick a dollar amount for 180 plus innings and an era under 3.5

Performance incentives are illegal, such as ERA, Home runs, RBI, etc.  Innings and appearances are ok.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Performance incentives are illegal, such as ERA, Home runs, RBI, etc.  Innings and appearances are ok.

For vesting options? I’m not so sure …

Quote

A vesting option is an optional year at the end of the contract that becomes guaranteed if the player reaches a certain performance incentive threshold. Vesting options are typically based on playing time incentives such as plate appearances, innings pitched, games started or games finished. In most cases, a vesting option that fails to vest can still be exercised as a club option.

 

I see typically but doesn’t specify that other things are illegal.

 

Doesnt matter, if he’s bad they can almost certainly not allow him to reach 180 innings 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/vesting-option

[btdart20]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/steinbrenner-current-payroll-not-sustainable.html

This one could go in a few different spots but thought NYY payroll mostly impacts the SP market as it relates to the O's.